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Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 20, 2023 8:16:42 GMT -5
Resume updates Best Win (BW) and records vs. top 10 RPI, SOS, % of matches played at MPSF: UCLA: BW: Beach away(4), top 10: 10-2, SOS =1, 27-2. UCLA with away win over Beach, 2x over GCU, 1x over Irvine, 1 neutral over PSU, played only 10 of 29 matches at home. (35%) GCU: BW: BYU home 2x (5), top 10: 6-2 SOS = 13 22-6. GCU with only the 1 away win over Pepperdine, now a neutral over Pepp, has neutral win over Ohio State, 2 home wins over BYU. GCU played exactly ONE non-conference matches as true road games (George Mason) and one non-conf neutral site (Ohio State) which is not something committees like to see. 19 of 27 matches at home is incredibly unbalanced. I would expect GCU to adjust it's scheduling next year. 70% of matches at home. BYU: BYU beat Ohio State 2x (7).top 10 4-6 SOS= 6, 19-6. BYU with away wins over Irvine, Ball State. & two non-conf wins over Ohio State, & the two losses to GCU @ GCU. played 56% home matches. I think BYU has to beat Stanford to have a chance to be in over GCU. Big West: Hawaii: BW: UCLA, home(1), top 10: 6-2, SOS =11, 26-2 , Hawaii with a home heavy schedule, and great home record. away record is undefeated but didn't play any top 10 teams away from the islands. 73% of matches played at home Beach: BW: Penn State away (2), top 10: 6-3, SOS=4, 20-3, Beach played 52% of matches at home EIVA: Penn State: BW: UCLA home (1), top 10 4-3, SOS =12, 24-3 PSU played 45% of matches at home Stanford was #8 when UH swept them at Stanford that doesn't matter. the committee a) doesn't use poll rankings, b) they don't even use all the multiple weeks of RPI data - and shouldn't c) doesn't apply special rules just for Hawaii d) may sort/weight data (top 5, top 10, top 20, etc.) from all the W-L categories within RPI however they believe it is most relevant |
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Post by noblesol on Apr 20, 2023 14:39:16 GMT -5
Stanford was #8 when UH swept them at Stanford that doesn't matter. the committee a) doesn't use poll rankings, b) they don't even use all the multiple weeks of RPI data - and shouldn't c) doesn't apply special rules just for Hawaii d) may sort/weight data (top 5, top 10, top 20, etc.) from all the W-L categories within RPI however they believe it is most relevant Your part d) is really just an extension of committee discretion to weight the criteria however they see fit. However they aren't guided anywhere to breakdown RPI into its components and weigh those individually as individual criteria, or to specifially weigh by top 5/10/20. Essentially a modification or creation of new criteria from what is commonly understood. If they go there, imagine they'd draw some heat trying to explain themselves for changing criteria post-season in a way not spelled out when schedules were being made. Their safest course is to stick with the criteria as written and commonly understood, particularly in picking the at-large. For forming the brackets and picking the seeds, they might have more committee discretion to apply their own eye-test and experience where the criteria are basically a tie, and moving one team up or down for sake of a more interesting tournament might benefit the sport and viewership interest. |
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 20, 2023 17:47:23 GMT -5
that doesn't matter. the committee a) doesn't use poll rankings, b) they don't even use all the multiple weeks of RPI data - and shouldn't c) doesn't apply special rules just for Hawaii d) may sort/weight data (top 5, top 10, top 20, etc.) from all the W-L categories within RPI however they believe it is most relevant Your part d) is really just an extension of committee discretion to weight the criteria however they see fit. However they aren't guided anywhere to breakdown RPI into its components and weigh those individually as individual criteria, or to specifially weigh by top 5/10/20. Essentially a modification or creation of new criteria from what is commonly understood. If they go there, imagine they'd draw some heat trying to explain themselves for changing criteria post-season in a way not spelled out when schedules were being made. Their safest course is to stick with the criteria as written and commonly understood, particularly in picking the at-large. For forming the brackets and picking the seeds, they might have more committee discretion to apply their own eye-test and experience where the criteria are basically a tie, and moving one team up or down for sake of a more interesting tournament might benefit the sport and viewership interest. there is already subjective discretion. however, using top 5, 10, 20 is already in teh data. I doubt it would draw heat as it's data directly from W-L sheets on the one hand, it's good there is no forumula. OTB provides some weighting, which itself is subjective. i just rail on teh teams under consideration. why shouldn't Loyola still be considered? they were co-champs and have fewer losses than others? it's so horribly designed. I realize they 'must' use it, but they should be smart enough to be circumspec about it's weighting. I think they should always error on teams under consideration being 'expansive', like top 10 teams, it actually makes it harder to question their 'inclusion' decisions. I realize this year the division between top 4 and the other top 10 teams seems 'obvious'. but that's IMO why should the outcome of MIVA quarters, semis, and finals cause such wild swings in teh evaluation of other teams when those MIVA matches vs. EIVA, Big West, & MPSF have already been played!!! and now they'll swing ratings all over the place depending on teh MIVA tournament?! yuk. it's simply bad, so 'teams under consideration' should be given it's just due, about 1% frankly. it should be common sense to a committee |
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Post by aaronic on Apr 21, 2023 7:32:47 GMT -5
Two days left of conference postseason play, and still no for sure picture for the last at-large.
At this point the shortlist of recipients:
UCLA
PSU
Hawaii
LBSU
GCU
Would imagine BYU’s upset loss tonight knocks them out of the picture. On that note, GCU is also just one of the aforementioned teams losing away from also being knocked out.
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Post by aaronic on Apr 21, 2023 7:36:31 GMT -5
Two days left of conference postseason play, and still no for sure picture for the last at-large. At this point the shortlist of recipients: UCLA PSU Hawaii LBSU GCU Would imagine BYU’s upset loss tonight knocks them out of the picture. On that note, GCU is also just one of the aforementioned teams losing away from also being knocked out. Of course a bizarre turn of events on Saturday where all top seeds lose in their conference tourneys will also drastically change things… after last season’s debacle we know this IS possible. |
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 21, 2023 8:36:42 GMT -5
I think GCU is the team that would get last team in, barring an upset.
BYU really needed to beat Stanford. With GCU beating Pepperdine, GCU added a decent neutral win, plus gets a much better RPI boost playing Pepp & UCLA, than BYU did playing CUI & Stanford, plus BYU won't get RPI boost from playing UCLA. while absolute RPI isn't everything, for BYU it was critical, given GCU's metrics.
BYU's best case is the road wins over Ball State & Irvine (top 10 RPI teams) something GCU doens't have, unless Stanford jumps into the top 10 as well for a couple more. Beating Stanford on a road game, which GCU couldn't do, was critical for BYU. BYU really needed to beat Stanford.
I think the committee is left to where they can't justify putting BYU in over GCU, especially if as I expect GCU jumps BYU in RPI, which is likely. Even if not, GCU I think still would get the nod.
at this point it's whether there are any upsets and how many. Stanford has home court advantage, so you never know, still hard to see, but possible. Bigger thing is Penn State lost their AA middle blocker, so they have to overcome that and probably rely on pins more to beat Princeton, who is decent enough to have a shot at PSU. Plus IRvine has home court advantage, but likely has to beat Beach & Hawaii in successive days.
barring upsets the main thing left will likely be the #2 seed, which again should be the BWCT winner if it's Hawaii or Beach. but who knows which categories the commmittee will value. Beach if they make the finals would get the biggest Opp W-L RPI boost of all the teams. Also don't know if they'll send all teams to the touranment again, or have the prelim round played at the #6 seed site
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 21, 2023 8:42:42 GMT -5
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Post by BigDigEnergy on Apr 21, 2023 8:45:44 GMT -5
I think GCU is the team that would get last team in, barring an upset. BYU really needed to beat Stanford. With GCU beating Pepperdine, GCU added a decent neutral win, plus gets a much better RPI boost playing Pepp & UCLA, than BYU did playing CUI & Stanford, plus BYU won't get RPI boost from playing UCLA. while absolute RPI isn't everything, for BYU it was critical, given GCU's metrics. BYU's best case is the road wins over Ball State & Irvine (top 10 RPI teams) something GCU doens't have, unless Stanford jumps into the top 10 as well for a couple more. Beating Stanford on a road game, which GCU couldn't do, was critical for BYU. BYU really needed to beat Stanford. I think the committee is left to where they can't justify putting BYU in over GCU, especially if as I expect GCU jumps BYU in RPI, which is likely. Even if not, GCU I think still would get the nod. at this point it's whether there are any upsets and how many. Stanford has home court advantage, so you never know, still hard to see, but possible. Bigger thing is Penn State lost their AA middle blocker, so they have to overcome that and probably rely on pins more to beat Princeton, who is decent enough to have a shot at PSU. Plus IRvine has home court advantage, but likely has to beat Beach & Hawaii in successive days. barring upsets the main thing left will likely be the #2 seed, which again should be the BWCT winner if it's Hawaii or Beach. but who knows which categories the commmittee will value. Beach if they make the finals would get the biggest Opp W-L RPI boost of all the teams. Also don't know if they'll send all teams to the touranment again, or have the prelim round played at the #6 seed site Assuming that UCLA and Penn St win their conference tournaments, but Irvine pulls out the upset and wins the BW (it is a big if), do you think the two at-large spots would go to the Beach and Hawai'i? |
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Post by MonroeClark90 on Apr 21, 2023 8:51:34 GMT -5
So if it's next year with the 12 spots, I'm thinking we're debating Pepperdine and Princeton. Assuming the rest goes chalk and LBSU/GCU get the at-larges, Next 4 possibly BYU, Irvine, OSU, Loyola? That'd be a fun few days of volleyball!
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 21, 2023 9:06:29 GMT -5
So if it's next year with the 12 spots, I'm thinking we're debating Pepperdine and Princeton. Assuming the rest goes chalk and LBSU/GCU get the at-larges, Next 4 possibly BYU, Irvine, OSU, Loyola? That'd be a fun few days of volleyball! Stanford would be in that debate for the last team or two in. latest Massey metrics masseyratings.com/cmvol/ratings |
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 21, 2023 9:12:41 GMT -5
I think GCU is the team that would get last team in, barring an upset. BYU really needed to beat Stanford. With GCU beating Pepperdine, GCU added a decent neutral win, plus gets a much better RPI boost playing Pepp & UCLA, than BYU did playing CUI & Stanford, plus BYU won't get RPI boost from playing UCLA. while absolute RPI isn't everything, for BYU it was critical, given GCU's metrics. BYU's best case is the road wins over Ball State & Irvine (top 10 RPI teams) something GCU doens't have, unless Stanford jumps into the top 10 as well for a couple more. Beating Stanford on a road game, which GCU couldn't do, was critical for BYU. BYU really needed to beat Stanford. I think the committee is left to where they can't justify putting BYU in over GCU, especially if as I expect GCU jumps BYU in RPI, which is likely. Even if not, GCU I think still would get the nod. at this point it's whether there are any upsets and how many. Stanford has home court advantage, so you never know, still hard to see, but possible. Bigger thing is Penn State lost their AA middle blocker, so they have to overcome that and probably rely on pins more to beat Princeton, who is decent enough to have a shot at PSU. Plus IRvine has home court advantage, but likely has to beat Beach & Hawaii in successive days. barring upsets the main thing left will likely be the #2 seed, which again should be the BWCT winner if it's Hawaii or Beach. but who knows which categories the commmittee will value. Beach if they make the finals would get the biggest Opp W-L RPI boost of all the teams. Also don't know if they'll send all teams to the touranment again, or have the prelim round played at the #6 seed site Assuming that UCLA and Penn St win their conference tournaments, but Irvine pulls out the upset and wins the BW (it is a big if), do you think the two at-large spots would go to the Beach and Hawai'i? if Irvine wins the BWCT, AND there are no other upsets, there will be 3 Big West teams in the tournament there's no question. if that happened the tournament would be like #1: UCLA #2: Penn State #3: Hawaii #4: Long Beach #5: Ball State/Ohio State #6: Irvine #7: CC albeit possible Irvine's wins in that case would elevate them to #5 and BSU/Ohio State #6. Beach and Irvine could literally be playing 4 times in 3 weeks in that scenario, and there's no question Irvine would have a quarterfinal rematch with either Hawaii or Beach regardless. I just have a real hard time believing Irvine could beat Hawaii playing their 3rd match in 3 days, but you never know. The Irvine pins would be gassed by the end of set 2. Same thing if UCSB was to play Beach in the final, which ain't gonna happen anyway. The MPSF & EIVA get a day off between the semis and finals, the Big West makes it really hard for a lower seed to beat a #1 or #2 in the final, and that's never happened yet. UCSD is the only lower seed to reach the finals, and they couldn't do it. |
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Post by MonroeClark90 on Apr 21, 2023 9:13:44 GMT -5
Yikes. Obviously a little recency-bias by me with Princeton.
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Post by BigDigEnergy on Apr 21, 2023 9:47:31 GMT -5
Assuming that UCLA and Penn St win their conference tournaments, but Irvine pulls out the upset and wins the BW (it is a big if), do you think the two at-large spots would go to the Beach and Hawai'i? if Irvine wins the BWCT, AND there are no other upsets, there will be 3 Big West teams in the tournament there's no question. if that happened the tournament would be like #1: UCLA #2: Penn State #3: Hawaii #4: Long Beach #5: Ball State/Ohio State #6: Irvine #7: CC albeit possible Irvine's wins in that case would elevate them to #5 and BSU/Ohio State #6. Beach and Irvine could literally be playing 4 times in 3 weeks in that scenario, and there's no question Irvine would have a quarterfinal rematch with either Hawaii or Beach regardless. I just have a real hard time believing Irvine could beat Hawaii playing their 3rd match in 3 days, but you never know. The Irvine pins would be gassed by the end of set 2. Same thing if UCSB was to play Beach in the final, which ain't gonna happen anyway. The MPSF & EIVA get a day off between the semis and finals, the Big West makes it really hard for a lower seed to beat a #1 or #2 in the final, and that's never happened yet. UCSD is the only lower seed to reach the finals, and they couldn't do it. It is wild to think that there are still so many possible scenarios just a day before the tournament final matches. I cannot wait for the days that more teams get to play in the NCAA tournament. |
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 21, 2023 9:57:09 GMT -5
if Irvine wins the BWCT, AND there are no other upsets, there will be 3 Big West teams in the tournament there's no question. if that happened the tournament would be like #1: UCLA #2: Penn State #3: Hawaii #4: Long Beach #5: Ball State/Ohio State #6: Irvine #7: CC albeit possible Irvine's wins in that case would elevate them to #5 and BSU/Ohio State #6. Beach and Irvine could literally be playing 4 times in 3 weeks in that scenario, and there's no question Irvine would have a quarterfinal rematch with either Hawaii or Beach regardless. I just have a real hard time believing Irvine could beat Hawaii playing their 3rd match in 3 days, but you never know. The Irvine pins would be gassed by the end of set 2. Same thing if UCSB was to play Beach in the final, which ain't gonna happen anyway. The MPSF & EIVA get a day off between the semis and finals, the Big West makes it really hard for a lower seed to beat a #1 or #2 in the final, and that's never happened yet. UCSD is the only lower seed to reach the finals, and they couldn't do it. It is wild to think that there are still so many possible scenarios just a day before the tournament final matches. I cannot wait for the days that more teams get to play in the NCAA tournament. I personally think they overexpanded the tournament with 12 teams, far too many at-larges with the last 3 or so that really don't even deserve to be in if we're honest about it, and plus make the regular season and conference tournaments less meaningful overall. 8 teams, with 3 at-larges I think is best, 10 teams ok, but 7 at-larges with teh last 2-3 teams or so really spotty records is overkill, but that's IMO, most people seem enthralled with the 'big tent' theory. like this year, the BWCT wouldn't even matter lol, the top 3 teams would be in already and the only question would be if UCSB could make some miraclous run. the BWCT would simply be playing for pride. & yeah this year it's still a very low potential for Hawaii or Beach to not even get in, which especially for Hawaii would seem incomprehensible and even discussing that possibilty would make their heads explode. |
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Post by BigDigEnergy on Apr 21, 2023 10:44:41 GMT -5
It is wild to think that there are still so many possible scenarios just a day before the tournament final matches. I cannot wait for the days that more teams get to play in the NCAA tournament. I personally think they overexpanded the tournament with 12 teams, far too many at-larges with the last 3 or so that really don't even deserve to be in if we're honest about it, and plus make the regular season and conference tournaments less meaningful overall. 8 teams, with 3 at-larges I think is best, 10 teams ok, but 7 at-larges with teh last 2-3 teams or so really spotty records is overkill, but that's IMO, most people seem enthralled with the 'big tent' theory. like this year, the BWCT wouldn't even matter lol, the top 3 teams would be in already and the only question would be if UCSB could make some miraclous run. the BWCT would simply be playing for pride. & yeah this year it's still a very low potential for Hawaii or Beach to not even get in, which especially for Hawaii would seem incomprehensible and even discussing that possibilty would make their heads explode. Yeah I totally hear you and agree that 12 teams might be a bit too big but I am perfectly okay with that. I think at this point in time and given the quality of teams there are, 10 would be perfect. But it is probably better that way (with 12) so that they don't have to keep expanding it soon again in the near future. I wonder what the 12 team tournament format would be like. The top 4 teams get a bye in the first round? So there will be 4 matches first round, another 4 in the second round, then the semi and final? |
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