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Post by medusa on Apr 23, 2023 9:21:14 GMT -5
I hope UH faces off with PS in their first round.
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 23, 2023 9:29:47 GMT -5
Thanks for the correct numbers. SOS is one of those criteria that on its own doesn't tell you much about what team is stronger or weaker or even more 'worthy'. CUI was #1 in SOS, but no one is claiming CUI belongs anywhere near the tournament. Penn St. is #6 in SOS but UCSD is #7. No one is claiming UCSD belongs in the at-large consideration on the strength of SOS. George Mason is #10 in SOS and Hawai'i #17. George Mason isn't going to make a case for itself on the basis of its SOS. A factor such as SOS is on its own not an indicator of team strength. An independent SOS ranking can't even be found in the Nitty Gritty. A better indicator of team strength than SOS is W/L results against RPI Tiers, which is found in the Nitty Gritty. So, it's interesting that the committee realizes that SOS is one of ten selection criteria but it's not meaningful enough to be nitty gritty material for helping them seed teams. Looking at Penn St. vs. Hawai'i using W/L results against the RPI Tiers found in the Nitty Gritty:
| Penn St. | Hawai'i | | RPI 1-5 | 2-2 | 2-2 | | RPI 6-10 | 2-1 | 5-0 | | RPI 11-15 | 10-0 | 4-0 | | RPI 16+ | 12-0 | 17-0 |
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The top 6 in the NCAA bracket are ranked RPI 1-6 (UCLA, Penn St., Hawai'i, Beach, GCU, Ohio St.), then King at 32. Looking at the table above, Hawai'i and Penn St. played equivalent schedules against Tier 1 teams with equivalent results. Against Tier 2, Hawai'i played more teams and had a better result than Penn St. Against Tier 3 and below teams, both Hawai'i and Penn St. played a large number of teams and with no losses. On the basis of the Nitty Gritty SOS comparison using RPI Tiers, Hawai'i had a tougher SOS than Penn St. against RPI Tier 1 and 2 teams representative of those found in the NCAA tournament upper bracket. Against teams not representative of that upper bracket (i.e. King), Hawai'i and Penn St. were equivalent. Using the Nitty Gritty SOS info as presented against RPI Tiers, Hawai'i had the slightly stronger tournament quality schedule with slightly better results than Penn St. the one item which we may or may not hear as much about (because of the favorites winning tournaments) is how much the committee talks about scheduling and SOS Hawaii's win over Irvine was pretty big, because Hawaii had an unbalanced home schedule. Getting a top 10 away win was something that was not on Hawaii's resume. last year, Penn State didn't have top 10 matches for the most part in March and April. They scheduled the Texas tournament, and then went to Irvine & Outrigger in mid March. Going 3-1 on that trip is gonna be the reason they are the #2 seed, if that's the case, combined with having Charleston as a huge boost to their SOS component. Nobody believes Penn State's SOS actually #2, it's just one of those RPI artifacts that make you go 'huh?' I think Hawaii might be the #2 seed, and should. If they aren't it'l be due to weighting PSU much tougher away schedule and the RPI SOS, and the head-to-head. the thing is, if the committee puts PSU #2, then do they remain quiet about GCU's ridculously heavy home schedule as well? GCU's resume hinges a lot on the 4-0 record vs. BYU & Irvine, all at home. 70% of matches at home with most key wins at home isn't something the committee typically likes to see. Beating a decent Pepperdine team on a neutral site, and a really big data point for GCU the committee I think will point to is the neutral win over MIVA champ and tournament champ Ohio State on a neutral site. the last criteria, will be interesting to see about is the 'Players Availability' category and if anything is applied to Penn State. if so, it's further data to put Hawaii @ #2, and actually if applied, it makes the comparison between Long Beach & Penn State more interesting, but they don't technically seed 3+ anyway as I recall. in any case, would think they want to keep Beach & Hawaii on opposite brackets anyway the #2 seed is a pretty big deal, don't have to play that extra match and likely against Ohio State if a #3 seed, which has to be one of the hottest teams at the moment even arguably at the moment playing like they might be the 3rd best team in the field |
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Post by medusa on Apr 23, 2023 9:34:44 GMT -5
BS/GCS/LBS
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Post by volleyguy on Apr 23, 2023 10:35:40 GMT -5
Thanks for the correct numbers. SOS is one of those criteria that on its own doesn't tell you much about what team is stronger or weaker or even more 'worthy'. CUI was #1 in SOS, but no one is claiming CUI belongs anywhere near the tournament. Penn St. is #6 in SOS but UCSD is #7. No one is claiming UCSD belongs in the at-large consideration on the strength of SOS. George Mason is #10 in SOS and Hawai'i #17. George Mason isn't going to make a case for itself on the basis of its SOS. A factor such as SOS is on its own not an indicator of team strength. An independent SOS ranking can't even be found in the Nitty Gritty. A better indicator of team strength than SOS is W/L results against RPI Tiers, which is found in the Nitty Gritty. So, it's interesting that the committee realizes that SOS is one of ten selection criteria but it's not meaningful enough to be nitty gritty material for helping them seed teams. Looking at Penn St. vs. Hawai'i using W/L results against the RPI Tiers found in the Nitty Gritty:
| Penn St. | Hawai'i | | RPI 1-5 | 2-2 | 2-2 | | RPI 6-10 | 2-1 | 5-0 | | RPI 11-15 | 10-0 | 4-0 | | RPI 16+ | 12-0 | 17-0 |
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The top 6 in the NCAA bracket are ranked RPI 1-6 (UCLA, Penn St., Hawai'i, Beach, GCU, Ohio St.), then King at 32. Looking at the table above, Hawai'i and Penn St. played equivalent schedules against Tier 1 teams with equivalent results. Against Tier 2, Hawai'i played more teams and had a better result than Penn St. Against Tier 3 and below teams, both Hawai'i and Penn St. played a large number of teams and with no losses. On the basis of the Nitty Gritty SOS comparison using RPI Tiers, Hawai'i had a tougher SOS than Penn St. against RPI Tier 1 and 2 teams representative of those found in the NCAA tournament upper bracket. Against teams not representative of that upper bracket (i.e. King), Hawai'i and Penn St. were equivalent. Using the Nitty Gritty SOS info as presented against RPI Tiers, Hawai'i had the slightly stronger tournament quality schedule with slightly better results than Penn St. Strength of schedule is a derivative of RPI that has nothing to do a particular team’s results (it measures only the opponent’s results). So, a team with the #1 SOS could theoretically be winless. It’s value is mainly for context. |
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