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Post by baytree on Aug 17, 2023 15:08:44 GMT -5
I doubt that Stanford is worth $50M to the B1G but who knows. Supposedly, every team talked to the B1G after USC and UCLA went there. But Stanford never seemed to pursue that. It was frustrating to me. Why did they wait until this week to have Condeleezza Rice and Jerry Yang lobby on their behalf? It's possible that both (and others) were lobbying hard before and Stanford just made a public announcement this week but all the reports were that Stanford was trying to decide what to do and did not aggressively pursue any option, partly bc they really wanted the PAC to stay together but partly bc they were not sure if they wanted to invest more in sports, treat athletes as employees, be connected to pay for play, or favor athletes in admissions to the degree they have. I don't think Mark Tessier-Lavigne is interested in sports. Neither was Drell (the provost). And Stanford's big whale for sports died in Jan 2022. He would have taken the lead on a lot of stuff. Yeah, but did they want to get themselves tied down to a "bad" deal, when B1G and SEC schools were making double that. Do they really want to be Snow White to the Seven Dwarfs? Personally, I think the B1G completing the TriFecta by expanding to the Bay Area is a no-brainer - it just isn't clear whether Stanford comes in with ND or Cal. IMO if ND said they wanted to join the B1G with Stanford, both of them would already be in the B1G.
I'm pretty sure ND wants to remain independent. It's an important part of their identity and, as long as NBC is paying them well, why not? I really don't think ND would be lobbying the ACC on Stanford's behalf if they wanted to join the B1G with Stanford. Why would they want Stanford to be tied to a contract that runs until 2036 if they wanted to leave for the B1G with them? (As I understand it, ND is also tied to the ACC until 2036. Football agreed to join the ACC if they join a conference and their other sports are already in the ACC. Some teams are trying to dissolve the conference but ND doesn't seem to be one of them.)
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Post by redbeard2008 on Aug 17, 2023 16:58:57 GMT -5
Yeah, but did they want to get themselves tied down to a "bad" deal, when B1G and SEC schools were making double that. Do they really want to be Snow White to the Seven Dwarfs? Personally, I think the B1G completing the TriFecta by expanding to the Bay Area is a no-brainer - it just isn't clear whether Stanford comes in with ND or Cal. IMO if ND said they wanted to join the B1G with Stanford, both of them would already be in the B1G. I'm pretty sure ND wants to remain independent. It's an important part of their identity and, as long as NBC is paying them well, why not? I really don't think ND would be lobbying the ACC on Stanford's behalf if they wanted to join the B1G with Stanford. Why would they want Stanford to be tied to a contract that runs until 2036 if they wanted to leave for the B1G with them? (As I understand it, ND is also tied to the ACC until 2036. Football agreed to join the ACC if they join a conference and their other sports are already in the ACC. Some teams are trying to dissolve the conference but ND doesn't seem to be one of them.)
The point is that the B1G might not want to expand past 20 or pre-empt ND joining once their media deal runs out. It is not clear that ND can make more money in or out of the B1G. If they do join, they may want an east coast travel partner (NC, for instance), which would leave Stanford out. If not, that could clear the way for Stanford and Cal to join the 2B1G Conference.
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Post by babybacksets on Aug 17, 2023 17:36:26 GMT -5
Would someone be so kind as to provide Cliff notes for what caused the initial implosion of the PAC12 in the first place?
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Post by tomclen on Aug 17, 2023 17:52:42 GMT -5
Would someone be so kind as to provide Cliff notes for what caused the initial implosion of the PAC12 in the first place?
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Post by babybacksets on Aug 17, 2023 18:20:48 GMT -5
Would someone be so kind as to provide Cliff notes for what caused the initial implosion of the PAC12 in the first place? lol I mean in figured as much, but was EVERYONE in the PAC that broke or was it just that the offers from other places too good to pass up? Like I was initially annoyed with UCLA/USC leaving but if the B1G and BIG area offering better situations for the future I guess a historic conference is just the necessary sacrifice?
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Post by bbg95 on Aug 17, 2023 18:27:00 GMT -5
lol I mean in figured as much, but was EVERYONE in the PAC that broke or was it just that the offers from other places too good to pass up? Like I was initially annoyed with UCLA/USC leaving but if the B1G and BIG area offering better situations for the future I guess a historic conference is just the necessary sacrifice? Money had a lot to do with it, but I would also add poor leadership on the part of the Pac-12 commissioners and university presidents. The conference wasn't necessarily dead when USC and UCLA left or even when Colorado left. Washington and Oregon leaving killed the conference. I really think that if they had stayed, then the remaining nine schools would have found a way to stay together, at least for one more TV contract. In retrospect, the Pac-12 passing on ESPN's offer of $30 million per school per year was a fatal mistake for the conference. Very similar to the demise of the old Big East a decade ago.
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Post by baytree on Aug 17, 2023 18:35:54 GMT -5
lol I mean in figured as much, but was EVERYONE in the PAC that broke or was it just that the offers from other places too good to pass up? Like I was initially annoyed with UCLA/USC leaving but if the B1G and BIG area offering better situations for the future I guess a historic conference is just the necessary sacrifice? Money had a lot to do with it, but I would also add poor leadership on the part of the Pac-12 commissioners and university presidents. The conference wasn't necessarily dead when USC and UCLA left or even when Colorado left. Washington and Oregon leaving killed the conference. I really think that if they had stayed, then the remaining nine schools would have found a way to stay together, at least for one more TV contract. In retrospect, the Pac-12 passing on ESPN's offer of $30 million per school per year was a fatal mistake for the conference. Very similar to the demise of the old Big East a decade ago. Folt/USC nixing the merger with the Big 12 (and the other presidents acquiescing) was another thing that killed the PAC. If they had merged, negotiations with ESPN may have gone very differently. CO, AZ, UT and ASU would have also been much more likely to stay.
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Post by redbeard2008 on Aug 17, 2023 18:39:35 GMT -5
Would someone be so kind as to provide Cliff notes for what caused the initial implosion of the PAC12 in the first place? Hubris. Pride goes before a fall.
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Post by baytree on Aug 17, 2023 19:47:03 GMT -5
IMO if ND said they wanted to join the B1G with Stanford, both of them would already be in the B1G. I'm pretty sure ND wants to remain independent. It's an important part of their identity and, as long as NBC is paying them well, why not? I really don't think ND would be lobbying the ACC on Stanford's behalf if they wanted to join the B1G with Stanford. Why would they want Stanford to be tied to a contract that runs until 2036 if they wanted to leave for the B1G with them? (As I understand it, ND is also tied to the ACC until 2036. Football agreed to join the ACC if they join a conference and their other sports are already in the ACC. Some teams are trying to dissolve the conference but ND doesn't seem to be one of them.)
The point is that the B1G might not want to expand past 20 or pre-empt ND joining once their media deal runs out. It is not clear that ND can make more money in or out of the B1G. If they do join, they may want an east coast travel partner (NC, for instance), which would leave Stanford out. If not, that could clear the way for Stanford and Cal to join the 2B1G Conference. If ND wants to go to the B1G, they'll need to pay a lot of money to the ACC, unless that conference is dissolved. The exit fee is $120M but even after they pay that, the rights to their home games will still belong to the ACC. No one will want ND if they lose the media rights to their home games. The estimates I've seen for FSU to leave with their rights are ~$350M - over $500M (mostly the latter). And if Stanford joins the ACC, they're in the same boat.
I thought the B1G was paying $70M/year. How likely is it that ND pays $500M (plus give up the money they'll get from NBC if they stay independent) in order to join the B1G? The odds seem low to me. Without ND, why does Fox want Stanford?
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Post by redbeard2008 on Aug 17, 2023 20:18:11 GMT -5
The point is that the B1G might not want to expand past 20 or pre-empt ND joining once their media deal runs out. It is not clear that ND can make more money in or out of the B1G. If they do join, they may want an east coast travel partner (NC, for instance), which would leave Stanford out. If not, that could clear the way for Stanford and Cal to join the 2B1G Conference. If ND wants to go to the B1G, they'll need to pay a lot of money to the ACC, unless that conference is dissolved. The exit fee is $120M but even after they pay that, the rights to their home games will still belong to the ACC. No one will want ND if they lose the media rights to their home games. The estimates I've seen for FSU to leave with their rights are ~$350M - over $500M (mostly the latter). And if Stanford joins the ACC, they're in the same boat. I thought the B1G was paying $70M/year. How likely is it that ND pays $500M (plus give up the money they'll get from NBC if they stay independent) in order to join the B1G? The odds seem low to me. Without ND, why does Fox want Stanford?
Not for football. They can go where they want. I doubt the buyout terms for Olympic and Women's sports are the same as for football or they can negotiate them down. www.si.com/college/notredame/football/notre-dame-football-and-the-pursuit-of-its-next-tv-contract-stires
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Post by surfvolleypolojock77 on Aug 17, 2023 20:35:45 GMT -5
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Post by baytree on Aug 17, 2023 20:38:28 GMT -5
If ND wants to go to the B1G, they'll need to pay a lot of money to the ACC, unless that conference is dissolved. The exit fee is $120M but even after they pay that, the rights to their home games will still belong to the ACC. No one will want ND if they lose the media rights to their home games. The estimates I've seen for FSU to leave with their rights are ~$350M - over $500M (mostly the latter). And if Stanford joins the ACC, they're in the same boat. I thought the B1G was paying $70M/year. How likely is it that ND pays $500M (plus give up the money they'll get from NBC if they stay independent) in order to join the B1G? The odds seem low to me. Without ND, why does Fox want Stanford?
Not for football. They can go where they want. I doubt the buyout terms for Olympic and Women's sports are the same as for football or they can negotiate them down. www.si.com/college/notredame/football/notre-dame-football-and-the-pursuit-of-its-next-tv-contract-stiresTheir agreement with the ACC lets them play football as an independent but says that if they join a conference (thru 2036), it has to be the ACC. Thus, if they joined the B1G, they'd be in breach of contract and liable for the same damages as if they were a member of the ACC. That's the problem. Or they could join the ACC then negotiate to get out. It would be essentially the same result.
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Post by bbg95 on Aug 17, 2023 20:52:31 GMT -5
Their agreement with the ACC lets them play football as an independent but says that if they join a conference (thru 2036), it has to be the ACC. Thus, if they joined the B1G, they'd be in breach of contract and liable for the same damages as if they were a member of the ACC. That's the problem. Or they could join the ACC then negotiate to get out. It would be essentially the same result. Yeah, this is correct. I never really thought about the idea that Notre Dame could join the ACC as a way to get out of the ACC, but I guess that's possible. In reality, I agree with your earlier comment that Notre Dame really just wants to stay independent and is fine with their ACC arrangement.
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Post by baytree on Aug 17, 2023 21:00:18 GMT -5
Their agreement with the ACC lets them play football as an independent but says that if they join a conference (thru 2036), it has to be the ACC. Thus, if they joined the B1G, they'd be in breach of contract and liable for the same damages as if they were a member of the ACC. That's the problem. Or they could join the ACC then negotiate to get out. It would be essentially the same result. Yeah, this is correct. I never really thought about the idea that Notre Dame could join the ACC as a way to get out of the ACC, but I guess that's possible. In reality, I agree with your earlier comment that Notre Dame really just wants to stay independent and is fine with their ACC arrangement. I think they want to stay independent too. But even if they change their mind, the cost of leaving the ACC is prohibitive, to put it mildly. And I don't think they'd be pushing to get Stanford and Cal into the ACC if they wanted to dissolve the ACC. They're happy with their situation. It looks to me like they're trying to make the ACC more secure, not easier to dissolve.
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Post by bbg95 on Aug 17, 2023 21:05:35 GMT -5
Yeah, this is correct. I never really thought about the idea that Notre Dame could join the ACC as a way to get out of the ACC, but I guess that's possible. In reality, I agree with your earlier comment that Notre Dame really just wants to stay independent and is fine with their ACC arrangement. I think they want to stay independent too. But even if they change their mind, the cost of leaving the ACC is prohibitive, to put it mildly. And I don't think they'd be pushing to get Stanford and Cal into the ACC if they wanted to dissolve the ACC. They're happy with their situation. It looks to me like they're trying to make the ACC more secure, not easier to dissolve. I agree. A lot of the talk about Notre Dame to the Big Ten ignores a lot about Notre Dame and what makes it such a unique school. People just look at a map and see that they're located in the heart of Big Ten country and think they should join. But it's a lot more complicated than that. And as you said, even if they wanted to join the Big Ten, actually getting out of their contract with the ACC would likely be so expensive that it's not worth it.
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