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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on Sept 22, 2023 10:15:46 GMT -5
how would DR not losing to CZE changed things There's 3 teams who are probably kicking themselves for winnable matches, the Olympic hopefuls. If DR beat Czech (and all other results stay same) they just need 1 win over CHN/NED to qualify (theoretically that also still could be good enough). If Canada beat DR (and all other results stay same), Canada would qualify with 2 wins over MEX/CZE. If Netherlands beat Canada (and all other results stay same), Netherlands would need just 1 win over SRB/DOM to qualify. Who have the best chances in Group A? besides Serbia who just need one win to get in
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Sept 22, 2023 10:19:45 GMT -5
There's 3 teams who are probably kicking themselves for winnable matches, the Olympic hopefuls. If DR beat Czech (and all other results stay same) they just need 1 win over CHN/NED to qualify (theoretically that also still could be good enough). If Canada beat DR (and all other results stay same), Canada would qualify with 2 wins over MEX/CZE. If Netherlands beat Canada (and all other results stay same), Netherlands would need just 1 win over SRB/DOM to qualify. Who have the best chances in Group A? besides Serbia who just need one win to get in
One win doesn't clinch it for Serbia. SRB 3-2 NED, DOM 3-1 CHN, NED 3-1 DOM, CHN 3-1 SRB In that example ^ Dominicana and Netherlands go to Paris
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Sept 22, 2023 10:21:28 GMT -5
Even a 3-1/3-0 over Netherlands doesn't qualify Serbia directly.
SRB 3-1 NED, DOM 2-3 CHN, DOM 3-1 NED, CHN 3-1 SRB
In that example ^ China and Dominican Republic go to Paris
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on Sept 22, 2023 10:22:00 GMT -5
Who have the best chances in Group A? besides Serbia who just need one win to get in
One win doesn't clinch it for Serbia. SRB 3-2 NED, DOM 3-1 CHN, NED 3-1 DOM, CHN 3-1 SRB In that example ^ Dominicana and Netherlands go to Paris in that case it is certainly in China's best interests to throw to the higher-ranked SRB team so they will not be an issue in the 2nd pathway to qualification.
(But don't worry, Cai Bin is too stupid to do even that)
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Post by Sinneristennis on Sept 22, 2023 10:33:32 GMT -5
there are only like 2 or 3 good teams nowadays? Well, yes. It's been like that since 2021, IMO. It's similar to the WTA, where except for Swiontek and few others, inconsistency reigns. WEAK ERA.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Sept 22, 2023 10:47:04 GMT -5
What I want is for CHN/SRB and NED/DR to be true "win and you're in" matches.
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Post by trianglevolleyball on Sept 22, 2023 10:57:33 GMT -5
So with the world ranking qualification pathway, and let's say SRB, DR, ITA, US, TUR, BRA qualify here for hypothetical sake, an the rankings at the end of July look like they currently do:
6. China 7. Japan 8. Poland 9. Netherlands 10. DR (QUALIFIED) 11. Canada
19. Kenya
China and Japan both still qualify, right? And Canada is left out? I'm not fully understanding how the continental thing plays with Asia failing to have qualified through this tournament in this scenario.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Sept 22, 2023 11:05:08 GMT -5
What I want is for CHN/SRB and NED/DR to be true "win and you're in" matches. For all 4 teams? The scenarios are so complicated and messy with NED/CHN losing to CAN and of course DOM losing to freaking Czech Republic for all of that to work. China must win to stay alive against DOM, but that means DOM will probably be in a position where winning over NED wouldn't actually be win and in. I think your best hope is that: China beats DOM 3-2, NED beats SRB 3-2. This would put the standings like this going into final day NED 6-1 (14 pts) SRB 5-2 (13 pts) CHN 5-2 (13 pts) DOM 5-2 (13 pts) DOM would be below NED with a 3-2 win though, and CHN/SRB winner would be guaranteed in if they win. 3/4 teams would be 'in' with a win. DOM would be 'in' with a 3-1/3-0 win, lose tiebreakers with everyone with a 3-2 win in that scenario.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2023 11:08:01 GMT -5
Pool a is delicious. I'm loving all the chaos.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Sept 22, 2023 11:08:40 GMT -5
What I want is for CHN/SRB and NED/DR to be true "win and you're in" matches. For all 4 teams? The scenarios are so complicated and messy with NED/CHN losing to CAN and of course DOM losing to freaking Czech Republic for all of that to work. China must win to stay alive against DOM, but that means DOM will probably be in a position where winning over NED wouldn't actually be win and in. I think your best hope is that: China beats DOM 3-2, NED beats SRB 3-2. This would put the standings like this going into final day NED 6-1 (14 pts) SRB 5-2 (13 pts) CHN 5-2 (13 pts) DOM 5-2 (13 pts) DOM would be below NED with a 3-2 win though, and CHN/SRB winner would be guaranteed in if they win. 3/4 teams would be 'in' with a win. DOM would be 'in' with a 3-1/3-0 win, lose tiebreakers with everyone with a 3-2 win in that scenario. I can only surmise that a situation this messy must favor Las Dominicanas.
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Post by trojansc on Sept 22, 2023 11:09:22 GMT -5
OK - but like, this situation is getting real VERY quickly.
If Germany can actually beat Poland (and they're up 1-0 and up in the 2nd set now)... this means that DOM/NED *really* need to focus on qualifying here.
Germany WOULD still have to beat at least one of USA/ITA to really make things dramatic, but, you don't f*ck around with Olympic Qualification.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2023 11:11:46 GMT -5
I love how we all thought we knew how this tournament was going to play out. So far, it's pretty interesting how chaotic things are shaping up.
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Post by HandeBallerdın on Sept 22, 2023 11:11:53 GMT -5
OK - but like, this situation is getting real VERY quickly. If Germany can actually beat Poland (and they're up 1-0 and up in the 2nd set now)... this means that DOM/NED *really* need to focus on qualifying here. Germany WOULD still have to beat at least one of USA/ITA to really make things dramatic, but, you don't f*ck around with Olympic Qualification. kind of wild if they hold on. Whats up with Poland suddenly
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Sept 22, 2023 11:12:33 GMT -5
So with the world ranking qualification pathway, and let's say SRB, DR, ITA, US, TUR, BRA qualify here for hypothetical sake, an the rankings at the end of July look like they currently do: 6. China 7. Japan 8. Poland 9. Netherlands 10. DR (QUALIFIED) 11. Canada 19. Kenya China and Japan both still qualify, right? And Canada is left out? I'm not fully understanding how the continental thing plays with Asia failing to have qualified through this tournament in this scenario. So after this tournament, if a confederation doesn't have a team qualified, the top ranked team from that confederation will qualify. Once all of the confederations have a qualified team, then the top ranked teams for the remaining available spots will qualify. Yes, Canada would be left out. If Asia doesn't qualify, China or Japan as the top ranked team will qualify (but it looks like both have a good chance to qualify via World Ranking regardless). In short: Canada is looking f*cked.
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Post by HandeBallerdın on Sept 22, 2023 11:13:25 GMT -5
So with the world ranking qualification pathway, and let's say SRB, DR, ITA, US, TUR, BRA qualify here for hypothetical sake, an the rankings at the end of July look like they currently do: 6. China 7. Japan 8. Poland 9. Netherlands 10. DR (QUALIFIED) 11. Canada 19. Kenya China and Japan both still qualify, right? And Canada is left out? I'm not fully understanding how the continental thing plays with Asia failing to have qualified through this tournament in this scenario. So after this tournament, if a confederation doesn't have a team qualified, the top ranked team from that confederation will qualify. Once all of the confederations have a qualified team, then the top ranked teams for the remaining available spots will qualify. Yes, Canada would be left out. If Asia doesn't qualify, China or Japan as the top ranked team will qualify (but it looks like both have a good chance to qualify via World Ranking regardless). In short: Canada is looking f*cked. unless they can find an uncle handy😜
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