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Post by Millennium on Oct 23, 2017 22:45:10 GMT -5
The problem with straight stat comparisons at this point in the season -- the unbalanced B1G schedule. Week | PSU | Wisc | 1 | Neb | MSU | 2 | Iowa | Mich | 3 | Ill | @ Iowa | 4 | NW | @ Neb | 5 | @ Osu | Minn | 6 | @ Md | @ MSU | 7 | Mich | Neb | 8 | MSU | Ind | 9 | @ Purd | @ MD | 10 | @ Ind | @ Minn |
Combined W-L of opponents PSU 48-52 UW 62-38 Corrected for matches against PSU 47-43 Wisc 57-33 Badgers have had a simply brutal schedule with 6 of 10 matches against top 10 teams. PSU has yet to see their toughest stretch of matches this year. They lost in straight sets at home to Neb, a team the badgers beat in Madison. Their are only two other fixtures that match up --@ Md and Mich. Skimpy though they are, let's look at hitting stats from those matches. Opp | PSU_K | PSU_E | PSU_A | PSU_HP | Opp_K | Opp_E | Opp_A | OPP_HP |
| Wisc_K | Wisc_E | Wisc_A | Wisc_HP | Opp_K | Opp_E | Opp_A | OPP_HP | Mich | 49 | 12 | 94 | 0.394 | 31 | 11 | 93 | 0.215 |
| 44 | 11 | 92 | 0.359 | 32 | 24 | 101 | 0.079 | @ Md | 34 | 9 | 83 | 0.301 | 34 | 20 | 105 | 0.133 |
| 45 | 10 | 90 | 0.389 | 29 | 22 | 102 | 0.069 | Neb | 38 | 13 | 110 | 0.227 | 59 | 16 | 124 | 0.347 |
| 51 | 14 | 155 | 0.239 | 46 | 24 | 135 | 0.163 | SUM | 121 | 34 | 287 | 0.303 | 124 | 47 | 322 | 0.239 |
| 140 | 35 | 337 | 0.312 | 107 | 70 | 338 | 0.109 |
UW outhit each opponent by substantially more than PSU in each case, but the difference is not down to offense, but defense. I certainly appreciate you putting this info out there for discussion purposes. However, my experience has shown by the midway point in the season, the stats don't lie about team tendencies. If these were the stats of only the pre-conference matches, I would have not even posted it. The serve-receive game is crucial for Wisconsin to win this one.
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Post by Millennium on Oct 23, 2017 22:47:26 GMT -5
Home vs home. It's true, you would have to think that PSU's home advantage would give them an advantage above what a like-like comparison like this would show. So I could compare shared opponents for home matches for PSU and away matches for UW. Am I too tired is the question. Edit: I.e., It's home vs home, and away vs away. Like to like fixtures. I mean, I don't know if any kind of stat manipulation is going to show you want you want to see. I think that Thelen's progress (especially attacking off two feet), the fact that Rose moved Lee away from Washington in the lineup, and Gorrell being back in the middle are three very important factors that have led to Penn State's very high level of play over the last few matches. Washington has actually increased her nation-leading hitting percentage and her kills per set during that time, too -- not surprising now that she isn't next to Lee. I think Wisconsin will take a set because Rettke is elite, but it's going to take a career match from one or more of the pins to have a shot at winning IMO. If all three pins decide to play poorly again, I think PSU will be able to handle them quicker than Minnesota did. +1 This is a pretty solid observation. Rettke is the reason I gave Wisconsin 1 set in my poll vote. She's been the most impressive player to date this year, in my book.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2017 22:52:38 GMT -5
I mean, I don't know if any kind of stat manipulation is going to show you want you want to see. I think that Thelen's progress (especially attacking off two feet), the fact that Rose moved Lee away from Washington in the lineup, and Gorrell being back in the middle are three very important factors that have led to Penn State's very high level of play over the last few matches. Washington has actually increased her nation-leading hitting percentage and her kills per set during that time, too -- not surprising now that she isn't next to Lee. I think Wisconsin will take a set because Rettke is elite, but it's going to take a career match from one or more of the pins to have a shot at winning IMO. If all three pins decide to play poorly again, I think PSU will be able to handle them quicker than Minnesota did. +1 This is a pretty solid observation. Rettke is the reason I gave Wisconsin 1 set in my poll vote. She's been the most impressive player to date this year, in my book. It won't take a career match by one or more Badger pins to win. They just have to be respectable...let's say all hit over .150!!! PSU has their own demons to contest with.
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 23, 2017 22:56:49 GMT -5
Home vs home. It's true, you would have to think that PSU's home advantage would give them an advantage above what a like-like comparison like this would show. So I could compare shared opponents for home matches for PSU and away matches for UW. Am I too tired is the question. Edit: I.e., It's home vs home, and away vs away. Like to like fixtures. I mean, I don't know if any kind of stat manipulation is going to show you want you want to see. I think that Thelen's progress (especially attacking off two feet), the fact that Rose moved Lee away from Washington in the lineup, and Gorrell being back in the middle are three very important factors that have led to Penn State's very high level of play over the last few matches. Washington has actually increased her nation-leading hitting percentage and her kills per set during that time, too -- not surprising now that she isn't next to Lee. I think Wisconsin will take a set because Rettke is elite, but it's going to take a career match from one or more of the pins to have a shot at winning IMO. If all three pins decide to play poorly again, I think PSU will be able to handle them quicker than Minnesota did. Yeah. I agree other things are going on. I was only responding to the initial post in the thread. The sample size and difference in opponents is too great to make a meaningful stats comparison. I also agree that if the pins have the same problems against PSU that they did against Minn, the badgers are toast.
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Post by Millennium on Oct 23, 2017 23:02:28 GMT -5
+1 This is a pretty solid observation. Rettke is the reason I gave Wisconsin 1 set in my poll vote. She's been the most impressive player to date this year, in my book. It won't take a career match by one or more Badger pins to win. They just have to be respectable...let's say all hit over .150!!! PSU has their own demons to contest with. Huh? ? The average opponent hitting % against Penn State this year is above .150 and PSU has only lost 1 match.
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Post by Fight On! on Oct 23, 2017 23:12:20 GMT -5
It won't take a career match by one or more Badger pins to win. They just have to be respectable...let's say all hit over .150!!! PSU has their own demons to contest with. Huh? ? The average opponent hitting % against Penn State this year is above .150 and PSU has only lost 1 match. The pins need to hit .150 and Rettke like .650. Lol
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2017 23:16:01 GMT -5
It won't take a career match by one or more Badger pins to win. They just have to be respectable...let's say all hit over .150!!! PSU has their own demons to contest with. Huh? ? The average opponent hitting % against Penn State this year is above .150 and PSU has only lost 1 match. I raise your "huh". We are not talking about the average opponent hitting percentage, we are talking about the Badger PINS hitting %. the % i stated is a joke, but the point isn't. UW pins don't have to have career nights, they all just have to have good, respectable nights and our middles could get the rest done. could.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2017 23:16:35 GMT -5
Huh? ? The average opponent hitting % against Penn State this year is above .150 and PSU has only lost 1 match. The pins need to hit .150 and Rettke like .650. Lol yes, i'm just asking for an average night. ;-)
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Post by Millennium on Oct 23, 2017 23:23:32 GMT -5
Huh? ? The average opponent hitting % against Penn State this year is above .150 and PSU has only lost 1 match. I raise your "huh". We are not talking about the average opponent hitting percentage, we are talking about the Badger PINS hitting %. the % i stated is a joke, but the point isn't. UW pins don't have to have career nights, they all just have to have good, respectable nights and our middles could get the rest done. could. My initial stat-comparison post, however, was only referring to Wisconsin's serve-receive. That's where WI has been suspect this year, if anywhere. Pins or middles can't get good sets if WI has a tough night receiving, and PSU's serving will test them.
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 23, 2017 23:30:02 GMT -5
It won't take a career match by one or more Badger pins to win. They just have to be respectable...let's say all hit over .150!!! PSU has their own demons to contest with. Huh? ? The average opponent hitting % against Penn State this year is above .150 and PSU has only lost 1 match. Here's the thinking. Assumption 1) Badgers typically hold their opponents HP to <0.250 with the exception of MSU in East Lansing, which is why the badgers worst loss was there. Assumption 2) The UW middles have hit between 0.400-0.500 the last 3 matches against top 10 teams, all good defenses. Assumption 3) Middles are getting ~37% of the sets rather consistently. If the middles hit 0.400, the outsides have to hit 0.170 for the team to get to 0.250. If the middles hit 0.500, the outsides only have to hit 0.100 to get to that threshold. If PSU hits a higher HP than 0.250, then the needed outside HPs increase accordingly. So defense is really important. If the PSU serve bothers UW's passing, less of the attack goes through the middles and the outsides have to hit better. It's also possible the badgers hit better than 0.250. The last two matches at MSU and against Neb they hit nearly 0.300 - much better than earlier in the year. The badgers real weakness so far has been an inability to maintain the play that inevitably sees them win the first set. That's what I will be looking for ... evidence of consistency, or recovery. I might even want them to lose the first set just to see them recover, although I'd prefer if they just kept winning them.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2017 23:32:47 GMT -5
I raise your "huh". We are not talking about the average opponent hitting percentage, we are talking about the Badger PINS hitting %. the % i stated is a joke, but the point isn't. UW pins don't have to have career nights, they all just have to have good, respectable nights and our middles could get the rest done. could. My initial stat-comparison post, however, was only referring to Wisconsin's serve-receive. That's where WI has been suspect this year, if anywhere. Pins or middles can't get good sets if WI has a tough night receiving, and PSU's serving will test them. i know and agree on serve-receive, i posted on this topic 2 hours ago in the UW thread. but pin hitting in or out of system is just as big of problem.
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 23, 2017 23:37:00 GMT -5
I raise your "huh". We are not talking about the average opponent hitting percentage, we are talking about the Badger PINS hitting %. the % i stated is a joke, but the point isn't. UW pins don't have to have career nights, they all just have to have good, respectable nights and our middles could get the rest done. could. My initial stat-comparison post, however, was only referring to Wisconsin's serve-receive. That's where WI has been suspect this year, if anywhere. Pins or middles can't get good sets if WI has a tough night receiving, and PSU's serving will test them. Passing has actually been a strength compared to previous two years, though it gets worse as the match wears on. They routinely get their middles almost 40% of sets, which is why Rettke leads B1G middles in attacks. Badgers hit 0.300 against a much tougher serving MSU squad, but lost cuz their defense stank that one match. I think that was down to the serve game. It can be a problem, especially as the match wears on and the kids get tentative, but it's good enough to keep opponents below 0.200 most nights. Minnesota has hit 0.230-0.240. If PSU hits 0.300 it will be hard for the badgers to compete I think.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2017 3:09:33 GMT -5
Huh? ? The average opponent hitting % against Penn State this year is above .150 and PSU has only lost 1 match. Here's the thinking. Assumption 1) Badgers typically hold their opponents HP to <0.250 with the exception of MSU in East Lansing, which is why the badgers worst loss was there. Assumption 2) The UW middles have hit between 0.400-0.500 the last 3 matches against top 10 teams, all good defenses. Assumption 3) Middles are getting ~37% of the sets rather consistently. If the middles hit 0.400, the outsides have to hit 0.170 for the team to get to 0.250. If the middles hit 0.500, the outsides only have to hit 0.100 to get to that threshold. If PSU hits a higher HP than 0.250, then the needed outside HPs increase accordingly. So defense is really important. If the PSU serve bothers UW's passing, less of the attack goes through the middles and the outsides have to hit better. It's also possible the badgers hit better than 0.250. The last two matches at MSU and against Neb they hit nearly 0.300 - much better than earlier in the year. The badgers real weakness so far has been an inability to maintain the play that inevitably sees them win the first set. That's what I will be looking for ... evidence of consistency, or recovery. I might even want them to lose the first set just to see them recover, although I'd prefer if they just kept winning them. Very, very flawed statistical analysis here.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2017 3:17:30 GMT -5
Huh? ? The average opponent hitting % against Penn State this year is above .150 and PSU has only lost 1 match. I raise your "huh". We are not talking about the average opponent hitting percentage, we are talking about the Badger PINS hitting %. the % i stated is a joke, but the point isn't. UW pins don't have to have career nights, they all just have to have good, respectable nights and our middles could get the rest done. could. LOL how simple! You need two of the three pin attackers to do something they have not been able to do more than once in the last ten matches: play at a high level. You also need all three pin attackers to do something they haven't done all season: play at a high level on the same night. The one big-time match that Wisconsin has won was against Nebraska at home, in which Duello had a career night. In what other big-time win this season have the Badgers been able to simply tolerate .150-type nights from all three of their pin attackers? I stand by my position: Bates, Duello, or Gillis will need to have one of the best matches of their careers in order for Wisconsin to compete with PSU, assuming Williams and Rettke continue to play well. They can't dig perfectly in transition every time. At some point, the pins are going to need to be able to score OOS. If they can't, PSU is going to eat them alive.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2017 3:18:13 GMT -5
My initial stat-comparison post, however, was only referring to Wisconsin's serve-receive. That's where WI has been suspect this year, if anywhere. Pins or middles can't get good sets if WI has a tough night receiving, and PSU's serving will test them. Passing has actually been a strength compared to previous two years. Where is your proof of this?
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