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Post by Millennium on Oct 23, 2017 20:21:05 GMT -5
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Post by Fight On! on Oct 23, 2017 20:23:46 GMT -5
No poll??
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Post by Millennium on Oct 23, 2017 20:27:30 GMT -5
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Post by Fight On! on Oct 23, 2017 20:29:08 GMT -5
Yay! Now I know my opinion matters. Lol
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Post by bball on Oct 23, 2017 21:19:58 GMT -5
COM ON WISCONSIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by Wiswell on Oct 23, 2017 21:22:31 GMT -5
Badgers got their every five years win last year. Next up, 2021!
Ok, seriously Badgers, if you happen to win the first set, don't rest on your laurels in relief. Keep pressing.
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 23, 2017 21:52:54 GMT -5
The problem with straight stat comparisons at this point in the season -- the unbalanced B1G schedule. Week | PSU | Wisc | 1 | Neb | MSU | 2 | Iowa | Mich | 3 | Ill | @ Iowa | 4 | NW | @ Neb | 5 | @ Osu | Minn | 6 | @ Md | @ MSU | 7 | Mich | Neb | 8 | MSU | Ind | 9 | @ Purd | @ MD | 10 | @ Ind | @ Minn |
Combined W-L of opponents PSU 48-52 UW 62-38 Corrected for matches against PSU 47-43 Wisc 57-33 Badgers have had a simply brutal schedule with 6 of 10 matches against top 10 teams. PSU has yet to see their toughest stretch of matches this year. They lost in straight sets at home to Neb, a team the badgers beat in Madison. Their are only two other fixtures that match up --@ Md and Mich. Skimpy though they are, let's look at hitting stats from those matches. Opp | PSU_K | PSU_E | PSU_A | PSU_HP | Opp_K | Opp_E | Opp_A | OPP_HP |
| Wisc_K | Wisc_E | Wisc_A | Wisc_HP | Opp_K | Opp_E | Opp_A | OPP_HP | Mich | 49 | 12 | 94 | 0.394 | 31 | 11 | 93 | 0.215 |
| 44 | 11 | 92 | 0.359 | 32 | 24 | 101 | 0.079 | @ Md | 34 | 9 | 83 | 0.301 | 34 | 20 | 105 | 0.133 |
| 45 | 10 | 90 | 0.389 | 29 | 22 | 102 | 0.069 | Neb | 38 | 13 | 110 | 0.227 | 59 | 16 | 124 | 0.347 |
| 51 | 14 | 155 | 0.239 | 46 | 24 | 135 | 0.163 | SUM | 121 | 34 | 287 | 0.303 | 124 | 47 | 322 | 0.239 |
| 140 | 35 | 337 | 0.312 | 107 | 70 | 338 | 0.109 |
UW outhit each opponent by substantially more than PSU in each case, but the difference is not down to offense, but defense.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2017 22:04:34 GMT -5
Opp | PSU_K | PSU_E | PSU_A | PSU_HP | Opp_K | Opp_E | Opp_A | OPP_HP |
| Wisc_K | Wisc_E | Wisc_A | Wisc_HP | Opp_K | Opp_E | Opp_A | OPP_HP | Mich | 49 | 12 | 94 | 0.394 | 31 | 11 | 93 | 0.215 |
| 44 | 11 | 92 | 0.359 | 32 | 24 | 101 | 0.079 | @ Md | 34 | 9 | 83 | 0.301 | 34 | 20 | 105 | 0.133 |
| 45 | 10 | 90 | 0.389 | 29 | 22 | 102 | 0.069 | Neb | 38 | 13 | 110 | 0.227 | 59 | 16 | 124 | 0.347 |
| 51 | 14 | 155 | 0.239 | 46 | 24 | 135 | 0.163 | SUM | 121 | 34 | 287 | 0.303 | 124 | 47 | 322 | 0.239 |
| 140 | 35 | 337 | 0.312 | 107 | 70 | 338 | 0.109 |
UW outhit each opponent by substantially more than PSU in each case.Can you define "substantially" for me, please?
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 23, 2017 22:06:01 GMT -5
Opp | PSU_K | PSU_E | PSU_A | PSU_HP | Opp_K | Opp_E | Opp_A | OPP_HP |
| Wisc_K | Wisc_E | Wisc_A | Wisc_HP | Opp_K | Opp_E | Opp_A | OPP_HP | Mich | 49 | 12 | 94 | 0.394 | 31 | 11 | 93 | 0.215 |
| 44 | 11 | 92 | 0.359 | 32 | 24 | 101 | 0.079 | @ Md | 34 | 9 | 83 | 0.301 | 34 | 20 | 105 | 0.133 |
| 45 | 10 | 90 | 0.389 | 29 | 22 | 102 | 0.069 | Neb | 38 | 13 | 110 | 0.227 | 59 | 16 | 124 | 0.347 |
| 51 | 14 | 155 | 0.239 | 46 | 24 | 135 | 0.163 | SUM | 121 | 34 | 287 | 0.303 | 124 | 47 | 322 | 0.239 |
| 140 | 35 | 337 | 0.312 | 107 | 70 | 338 | 0.109 |
UW outhit each opponent by substantially more than PSU in each case.Can you define "substantially" for me, please? Outhit the opponent. You're only looking at one HP. That's why defense is important.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2017 22:07:44 GMT -5
Can you define "substantially" for me, please? Outhit the opponent. You're only looking at one HP. That's why defense is important. Ahh, thank you. Now can you explain why you only used the stats from Wisconsin's second match against Nebraska? Seems the other didn't fit your narrative.
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Post by Reach on Oct 23, 2017 22:09:05 GMT -5
Wisconsin has been so up and down and lost so many 5 setters... this match could go either way. Odds say they lose but this could be the match to unseat number 1 depending on if the outsides go off.
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 23, 2017 22:12:50 GMT -5
Outhit the opponent. You're only looking at one HP. That's why defense is important. Ahh, thank you. Now can you explain why you only used the stats from Wisconsin's second match against Nebraska? Seems the other didn't fit your narrative. Home vs home. It's true, you would have to think that PSU's home advantage would give them an advantage above what a like-like comparison like this would show. So I could compare shared opponents for home matches for PSU and away matches for UW. Am I too tired is the question. Edit: I.e., It's home vs home, and away vs away. Like to like fixtures.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2017 22:17:58 GMT -5
Wisconsin has been so up and down and lost so many 5 setters... this match could go either way. Wisconsin's ups have been better than PSU's? Not sure this match is as close to 50/50 as you say. And haven't only three of Wisconsin's five losses been in five sets, with the two most recent in four sets?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2017 22:27:48 GMT -5
Ahh, thank you. Now can you explain why you only used the stats from Wisconsin's second match against Nebraska? Seems the other didn't fit your narrative. Home vs home. It's true, you would have to think that PSU's home advantage would give them an advantage above what a like-like comparison like this would show. So I could compare shared opponents for home matches for PSU and away matches for UW. Am I too tired is the question. Edit: I.e., It's home vs home, and away vs away. Like to like fixtures. I mean, I don't know if any kind of stat manipulation is going to show you want you want to see. I think that Thelen's progress (especially attacking off two feet), the fact that Rose moved Lee away from Washington in the lineup, and Gorrell being back in the middle are three very important factors that have led to Penn State's very high level of play over the last few matches. Washington has actually increased her nation-leading hitting percentage and her kills per set during that time, too -- not surprising now that she isn't next to Lee. I think Wisconsin will take a set because Rettke is elite, but it's going to take a career match from one or more of the pins to have a shot at winning IMO. If all three pins decide to play poorly again, I think PSU will be able to handle them quicker than Minnesota did.
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 23, 2017 22:43:25 GMT -5
So here is the comparison of shared opponents that PSU played at home and UW played away. On average, UW did better with a HP differential of +0.057 compared to +0.034. That's not a huge difference. PSU did better against MSU, but UW did better against Neb and Iowa. UW had one very bad defensive match against MSU, PSU had one against Neb. Given such a small sample size and the variability it kind of evens out and doesn't indicate a clear favorite. Which was supposed to be my point to begin with. Opp | PSU_K | PSU_E | PSU_A | PSU_HP | OPP_K | OPP_E | OPP_A | OPP_HP | Wisc_K | Wisc_E | Wisc_A | Wisc_K | OPP_K | OPP_E | OPP_A | OPP_HP | MSU | 54 | 17 | 144 | 0.257 | 59 | 26 | 149 | 0.221 | 55 | 17 | 129 | 0.295 | 63 | 15 | 138 | 0.348 | Iowa | 61 | 12 | 134 | 0.366 | 53 | 24 | 144 | 0.201 | 45 | 10 | 90 | 0.389 | 29 | 22 | 102 | 0.069 | Neb | 38 | 13 | 110 | 0.227 | 59 | 16 | 124 | 0.347 | 59 | 25 | 175 | 0.194 | 61 | 28 | 171 | 0.193 | Sum | 153 | 42 | 388 | 0.286 | 171 | 66 | 417 | 0.252 | 159 | 52 | 394 | 0.271 | 153 | 65 | 411 | 0.214 |
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