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Post by Hawk Attack on Oct 14, 2018 8:53:04 GMT -5
Alright we swing up north for Minnesota on Friday and Wisconsin on Sunday... this will be a tough week of top 25 opponents but we managed to steal one away from Wisconsin at home so there's always possibilities this season! They've got a renewed sense of confidence in knowing they can beat top dogs. The loss against Purdue stings but all they can do it learn and look to the future now.
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Post by Hawk Attack on Oct 17, 2018 11:55:50 GMT -5
Brie is on track to being one of the highest leaders in career assists in Hawkeye history!
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Post by vbprisoner on Oct 17, 2018 15:36:06 GMT -5
You all better hope she gets to 2000 this weekend, because if she doesn't that means Iowa probably got spanked 3-0 for both matches and didn't break 20 in any set.... or worse she got injured.
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Post by drimple on Oct 18, 2018 8:34:36 GMT -5
Thinking about tournament aspirations, I'm thinking the Hawkeyes need a few more upsets based on RPI. Right now on the NCAA website the Hawkeyes are at 44, which I would think is on the bubble. I imagine you want to be in the 30s to feel comfortable. Looking at the remaining schedule, if Iowa beats everyone with RPI worse than them (Northwestern, Maryland x 2, Rutgers, Michigan St., Indiana) and loses to everyone with an RPI better than them (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn St., Nebraska, Purdue, Ohio State), that would put them at 18-13 and I imagine their RPI will not improve that much, if at all.
Given this, I think that Ohio State at home is a must win and that the Hawkeyes need to find a way to either beat Penn State at home or Purdue on the road. It is going to be an interesting end to the season!
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Post by FreeBall on Oct 18, 2018 9:33:01 GMT -5
Thinking about tournament aspirations, I'm thinking the Hawkeyes need a few more upsets based on RPI. Right now on the NCAA website the Hawkeyes are at 44, which I would think is on the bubble. I imagine you want to be in the 30s to feel comfortable. Looking at the remaining schedule, if Iowa beats everyone with RPI worse than them (Northwestern, Maryland x 2, Rutgers, Michigan St., Indiana) and loses to everyone with an RPI better than them (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn St., Nebraska, Purdue, Ohio State), that would put them at 18-13 and I imagine their RPI will not improve that much, if at all. Given this, I think that Ohio State at home is a must win and that the Hawkeyes need to find a way to either beat Penn State at home or Purdue on the road. It is going to be an interesting end to the season! Iowa definitely needs to win all of the expected matches and some (maybe 2+) of the expected loss matches to have any level of comfort regarding their tournament prospects. The current RPI Futures projects a record of 18-13 and an RPI of 61. See: volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/75202/rpi-futures-week-10-15Also, the RPI Futures probabilities from 1,000 simulations shows Iowa with only a 16% chance of finishing with an RPI in the top 45. They clearly have some work to do to improve their chances of making the NCAA tournament field.
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Post by Hawk Attack on Oct 18, 2018 11:25:21 GMT -5
Thinking about tournament aspirations, I'm thinking the Hawkeyes need a few more upsets based on RPI. Right now on the NCAA website the Hawkeyes are at 44, which I would think is on the bubble. I imagine you want to be in the 30s to feel comfortable. Looking at the remaining schedule, if Iowa beats everyone with RPI worse than them (Northwestern, Maryland x 2, Rutgers, Michigan St., Indiana) and loses to everyone with an RPI better than them (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn St., Nebraska, Purdue, Ohio State), that would put them at 18-13 and I imagine their RPI will not improve that much, if at all. Given this, I think that Ohio State at home is a must win and that the Hawkeyes need to find a way to either beat Penn State at home or Purdue on the road. It is going to be an interesting end to the season! Iowa definitely needs to win all of the expected matches and some (maybe 2+) of the expected loss matches to have any level of comfort regarding their tournament prospects. The current RPI Futures projects a record of 18-13 and an RPI of 61. See: volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/75202/rpi-futures-week-10-15Also, the RPI Futures probabilities from 1,000 simulations shows Iowa with only a 16% chance of finishing with an RPI in the top 45. They clearly have some work to do to improve their chances of making the NCAA tournament field. If we win out the remaining seven matches against the lower third of the B1G (Northwestern, Maryland x2, Rutgers, MSU, Indiana, & OSU) I think we’re almost certainly fine, regardless of RPI. If we win those and then win one more match on the slate then I would think we’re 100% in, having zero bad losses (worst being Lipscomb OOC), a top 10/25 win against Wisconsin and then another top 25 win somewhere. There’s no way they leave us out. Now, if we lose any of those seven matches, we would probably have to make up for it with two wins against the remainder of our field (Minnesota, Wisconsin, PSU, Nebraska, Purdue). Certainly not impossible... but a really really tough order. For us, I think it will come down to not giving them an excuse to leave us out.
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Post by FreeBall on Oct 18, 2018 12:01:09 GMT -5
Iowa definitely needs to win all of the expected matches and some (maybe 2+) of the expected loss matches to have any level of comfort regarding their tournament prospects. The current RPI Futures projects a record of 18-13 and an RPI of 61. See: volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/75202/rpi-futures-week-10-15Also, the RPI Futures probabilities from 1,000 simulations shows Iowa with only a 16% chance of finishing with an RPI in the top 45. They clearly have some work to do to improve their chances of making the NCAA tournament field. For us, I think it will come down to not giving them an excuse to leave us out. Based on what the committee has done in recent years, an RPI of 61 would be the only excuse needed to leave Iowa out of the tournament field. They need to do something to get their RPI into the 40's in order to feel much better about their chances.
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Post by JT on Oct 18, 2018 12:37:42 GMT -5
If, as Hawk Attack says, they win all seven of their expected matches, they will finish at least one win better than the RPI Futures projected record. Not sure what this +1 does to their RPI (obviously it goes up some) but HA's prediction is for a slightly) better than RPI-Futures result. (Edit) hmm... Is this naive, or does the +1 win just add 25% of 1/31 to their RPI? If that's correct (or close) then it adds .00806 to their projected RPI, which ranks them 46, I think?
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Post by drimple on Oct 18, 2018 14:28:38 GMT -5
If, as Hawk Attack says, they win all seven of their expected matches, they will finish at least one win better than the RPI Futures projected record. Not sure what this +1 does to their RPI (obviously it goes up some) but HA's prediction is for a slightly) better than RPI-Futures result. (Edit) hmm... Is this naive, or does the +1 win just add 25% of 1/31 to their RPI? If that's correct (or close) then it adds .00806 to their projected RPI, which ranks them 46, I think? RPI Futures has them at 18-13, so that would mean that it probably has them either beating Indiana on the road (RPI future of 50) or Ohio State at home (RPI future of 47), but not both. Hawk Attack's statement about winning all seven of their expected matches has both of those in there, so they would be at 19-13 and have beaten two teams in front of them in RPI futures instead of just one. I'm guessing that would bump them up, but have no idea how much.
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Post by FreeBall on Oct 18, 2018 15:08:26 GMT -5
If, as Hawk Attack says, they win all seven of their expected matches, they will finish at least one win better than the RPI Futures projected record. Not sure what this +1 does to their RPI (obviously it goes up some) but HA's prediction is for a slightly) better than RPI-Futures result. (Edit) hmm... Is this naive, or does the +1 win just add 25% of 1/31 to their RPI? If that's correct (or close) then it adds .00806 to their projected RPI, which ranks them 46, I think? RPI Futures has them at 18-13, so that would mean that it probably has them either beating Indiana on the road (RPI future of 50) or Ohio State at home (RPI future of 47), but not both. Hawk Attack's statement about winning all seven of their expected matches has both of those in there, so they would be at 19-13 and have beaten two teams in front of them in RPI futures instead of just one. I'm guessing that would bump them up, but have no idea how much. Current Pablo (10/15) has Iowa favored over Ohio State in Iowa City (6390 vs. 5925). It has them as a slight underdog to Indiana on the road (6350 vs. 6165). Both include the current HCA factor of 225.
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Post by Hawk Attack on Oct 18, 2018 16:13:35 GMT -5
We're going to find out a lot of what Indiana is currently made of this week. Unfortunately, nothing either team does right now will hold much weight considering we don't play either of them for another 4 and 5 weeks. If there's anything to learn about the B1G this year it's that week-by-week results tell the true story.
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Post by hawkfan on Oct 20, 2018 1:27:56 GMT -5
Just now being able to check out info about the MN match tonight. Looks like the Hawks hung tough against strong MN team. Anyone know what's up with Hoye??
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Post by notwvb on Oct 20, 2018 7:51:40 GMT -5
Just now being able to check out info about the MN match tonight. Looks like the Hawks hung tough against strong MN team. Anyone know what's up with Hoye?? I know she was sorely missed. Tuned in late, thought announcer only said Hoye wasn't there, but gave no reason why. Hope she's in Madison on the floor. Overall, hitting well last night (except Orr - now beyond the point of aggressive setter attacking, 20 against Purdue, .250, 10 last night, negative), passing and defense, pretty solid (Kelly was super), tough serving and blocking disappeared though. Expecting better against Whiskey. Go Hawks.
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Post by PointHawks on Oct 20, 2018 12:22:58 GMT -5
I was impressed with our Hawks last night. They never gave up and were playing arguably a National Championship team in their building. Remember No one has taken a set off the Gophers at home in conference yet. I thought Kelly played incredible, and Orr did a great job spreading the ball to help her hitters succeed. Buzz played well for her first front row start since the first weekend. Lou is so good, I’d get her the ball more often. Hitting against such a solid defensive team, Coyle and our pins were efficient, and I feel if we can SR better against Whisky we will be able to get our middles more involved. Obviously they are gonna be fired up for us, but I think what last night proved is that this Iowa team can play competitive ball with anyone even on the road. We are deep enough with some adversity to stay competitive against the best! That is another sign of the trending higher for this program. We certainly missed Hoye and Wing! #PointHawks
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Post by Hawk Attack on Oct 23, 2018 10:00:52 GMT -5
(Not to look ahead of this very important week...) but announcement!
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