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Post by DiggUH on Oct 16, 2019 14:36:19 GMT -5
Thanks for your efforts. Always interesting to read and follow. Good stuff!
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Post by wintergreen on Oct 16, 2019 14:39:57 GMT -5
I think Hawaii should still be seeded. With a current RPI of 9 and looking how well their previous opponents are doing it should be included in the picture. Yet I never really cared if we hosted or not I just want a deep run. Also sometimes going into the tournament unseeded benefits us cause we don’t have a huge target on our back.
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Post by trainermch on Oct 16, 2019 15:25:13 GMT -5
I’ve grown accustomed to having a paid subscription for this type of prognostication. Great work trojansc. Impressive track record!
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Post by noblesol on Oct 16, 2019 15:49:54 GMT -5
When I get some time - I plan on looking at potential drive-in scenarios. Should see some differences this year with 3 or more Texas hosts, potentially two teams from the Bay Area, Maybe both Louisville & Kentucky eating up a lot drive-ins - and then look were some of the 1 bid auto teams are likely to be coming from. Why does Hawaii get sent to Seattle so often? Hawaii, if not hosting, has nowhere to drive in. Washington, when hosting, frequently has no drive-ins (unless Seattle U, Portland State, or Gonzaga makes the tournament). If Hawai'i doesn't host, I suspect they become the valued Queen piece on the scheduling chessboard. The committee can justify sending them just about anywhere they need a fly-in team to balance a region. Frequently it's been with Washington because they always seem to need a bevy of fly-ins, but this year they could wind up in a Texas or Baylor region, as they'll likely need fly-ins to balance their regions. If seeded by RPI ranking alone, they could wind up in Stanford's region.
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Post by azvb on Oct 16, 2019 16:25:36 GMT -5
I’d imagine Utah is tired of being sent to Provo. The Utes hosted a sub-regional 2 seasons ago. You’re right. I guess they’ve only been sent twice to Provo. Surprised they didn’t send BYU to SLC in 2017.
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Post by bbg95 on Oct 16, 2019 16:38:46 GMT -5
The Utes hosted a sub-regional 2 seasons ago. You’re right. I guess they’ve only been sent twice to Provo. Surprised they didn’t send BYU to SLC in 2017. They didn't send BYU to Salt Lake City in 2017 because BYU was also hosting a sub-regional. Utah was the 11 seed, and BYU was the 13 seed.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 16, 2019 16:49:17 GMT -5
What about Louisville and Texas A&M in the mix for a seed? Washington will be interesting. They have the RPI potential, but they will have to win. Probably needs to go 17-3 in conference, 16-4 starts to get dicey. 15-5 and I don't see it. Louisville was a team I had T16 and moved them, and forgot to put them back in the “next in line”. Louisville is above Cincinnati, WKU, and A&M in the seed race. Texas A&M, I just don’t see it yet. They have 3 more chances to notch the big win that has been escaping from their grasps. They play at Florida, at Kentucky, and vs. Missouri. A home win vs. Missouri probably won’t be enough, so they’ll have to exceed expectations. I thought A&M would be in a better position at this point.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 16, 2019 16:51:59 GMT -5
As an SC fan, no love for BC getting into the bracket? Boston College has an absolutely dreadful strength of schedule. It’s making it almost impossible for an at-large even with an improbable run
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 16, 2019 17:00:09 GMT -5
I also think Hawaii should be in as a T16 seed based on what they’ve done so far. The prediction here is assuming they lose a few more and get into danger-seed territory and they just miss out.
If UCLA and Missouri aren’t T25 wins, Hawaii’s case could really be shot. UCLA in all likeliness won’t be, but Missouri definitely could, though they haven’t been dominant in the SEC.
If Hawaii wins out — they could be a lock to get a seed. 1 loss still would give Hawaii a good chance.. If they lose 2 more, especially depending on to who, I really don’t like their chances.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 16, 2019 17:00:11 GMT -5
When I get some time - I plan on looking at potential drive-in scenarios. Should see some differences this year with 3 or more Texas hosts, potentially two teams from the Bay Area, Maybe both Louisville & Kentucky eating up a lot drive-ins - and then look were some of the 1 bid auto teams are likely to be coming from. Why does Hawaii get sent to Seattle so often? Hawaii, if not hosting, has nowhere to drive in. Washington, when hosting, frequently has no drive-ins (unless Seattle U, Portland State, or Gonzaga makes the tournament). The thought is the committee has changed in the last couple years. The sample size is very small - but the hope is that the committee is improving on subregional balance in the past 2 years than ever before. Just a theory can easily be proven wrong with upcoming brackets.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 16, 2019 17:03:27 GMT -5
What about Louisville and Texas A&M in the mix for a seed? Washington will be interesting. They have the RPI potential, but they will have to win. Probably needs to go 17-3 in conference, 16-4 starts to get dicey. 15-5 and I don't see it. Louisville was a team I had T16 and moved them, and forgot to put them back in the “next in line”. Louisville is above Cincinnati, WKU, and A&M in the seed race. Texas A&M, I just don’t see it yet. They have 3 more chances to notch the big win that has been escaping from their grasps. They play at Florida, at Kentucky, and vs. Missouri. A home win vs. Missouri probably won’t be enough, so they’ll have to exceed expectations. I thought A&M would be in a better position at this point. TAM - just seems like they still have an opportunity to be a seed when compared to teams like Notre Dame and Western Kentucky given who is left on their schedule and how well they have played in losses they could have easily won - gives some hope (probability > X%)?
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Post by ay2013 on Oct 16, 2019 17:14:53 GMT -5
I think re your top 4 seeds outlook, Rice shouldn't be in the discussion and if Penn State goes out of the top 25 in the end or Pitt doesn't take two against Louisville I think they (Pitt) are probably out of top line picture too. I just see vestiges of gaudy records with 1 or 2 top 25 wins coming back to bite these teams that don't play in the deep conferences.....case in point
2010- UNI 30-2 Seeded #5 2011- UNI 32-1 Seeded #6 2012- Louisville (back when they were in the Big East) 29-3 Seeded #10 2014- Colorado State 29-2 Seeded #15 2018- Pitt 29-1 Seeded #12
There are even instances where teams from deeper conferences but that lacked numerous top 25 wins were seeded pretty low 2015- Kansas 26-2 Seeded #9....seeded ahead of them was a 6 loss Stanford team, 6 loss Wisconsin team, 5 loss Penn State team, why? because those teams had far more top 25 wins How many years has BYU ran with 3 losses and seeded somewhere in the teens?
I think the committee wants to see multiple top 25 wins. Rice will have 1. I just don't see Rice getting a top 4 seed. And, like I said earlier, Pitt is teetering on the verge of being out of the top 4 too. The top 25 wins is also why I agree with you that Washington has a lot of upside. They have 4 almost guaranteed top 25 wins. 3 more chances if Cal and Utah stay in the top 25, and another 1 if Illinois sneaks into the top 25. Head to head wins against Wisconsin (twice) and Stanford. If Washington wins out I think they are for sure a seed, and even at 4 losses on the year, if they can show the committee 7+ top 25 wins, I think they are likely to get a seed too. 5 losses this year is probably too much to get a top 5 seed. In the last decade, save for 2011 when all the top teams had a bunch of losses, I count only 3 times when a program has gotten a top 4 seed. Penn State in 2011 with 5 losses, Nebraska in 2012 with 6 losses, and Stanford in 2009 with a whopping 7 losses. Granted this was also when top 4 seeds meant something different with the predetermined regionals, but still, with only the 3 best programs in our sports history really defying the loss precedent re top 4 seeds, I think 4 losses and under is the big target for the huskies.
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Post by volleylearner on Oct 16, 2019 17:18:45 GMT -5
OTOH, Plummer, yes Stanford's Katherine Plummer, looks mad. She's not in the lineup right now, but she was in the hitting line in warmups against AZ and ASU, and was crushing balls. I thought to myself, "These balls are being severely abused." You should have thought to yourself, "Her name is Kathryn, not Katherine."
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Post by hammer on Oct 16, 2019 17:22:08 GMT -5
OTOH, Plummer, yes Stanford's Katherine Plummer, looks mad. She's not in the lineup right now, but she was in the hitting line in warmups against AZ and ASU, and was crushing balls. I thought to myself, "These balls are being severely abused." You should have thought to yourself, "Her name is Kathryn, not Katherine." Whoops -- female names have so many different spellings. I went back to original post and crossed out "Katherine" and added "Kathryn".
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Post by jayj79 on Oct 16, 2019 17:48:11 GMT -5
I agree, the Missouri Valley will likely be a one-bid conference this year. Still too early to call which team will get that one bid, though, IMO. Illinois State did just pull off a 5-set upset at UNI (giving the Panthers their first loss in conference), so the Redbirds are contenders, but they also already have 2 losses in conference. Loyola is currently atop the standings at 6-0, but they haven't faced any of the other top teams. Likely that bid will go to whoever gets hot in the conference tournament Thanskgiving weekend in Cedar Falls.
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