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Post by trollhunter on Apr 5, 2016 13:19:59 GMT -5
For discussion of NCAA Beach bids, based on the following criteria:
1) Region W/L record (including significant wins & losses).
2) Strength of schedule
3) Eligibility and availability of student-athletes.
4) Rating Percentage Index. Overall W/L record (including significant wins & losses)
5) Head-to-head competition.
6) Results versus common opponents.
7) Significant wins and losses. (included in item #1)
There are 8 bids available this season, 3 for West teams, 3 for East teams, and 2 At-Large (anywhere).
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 5, 2016 13:24:32 GMT -5
As of 4/4 here is how I see it. Some open bids will be clearer after USAV Invite and Siesta matches.
LOCKED BIDS:
*WEST (3 bids): All 3 West bids are locked, although order could change.
PEP, USC, UCLA (very close in criteria with Hawaii).
*AT-LARGE (1 of 2 bids is locked)
Hawaii – has earned At-Large bid, barring a meltdown, via wins over FSU, LBSU, Stetson and strong SOS/RPI.
*EAST (1 of 3 bids are locked):
Florida State - FSU is a lock for a bid, way ahead of all East teams in all criteria.
OPEN BIDS:
*AT-LARGE #2 – Will likely go to one of the West teams below, as they have more chances to improve resumes.
LBSU - need 2-3 wins vs top teams in USAV Invite or vs UCLA/Pep/Hawaii. They control their destiny.
San Fran - need to beat 2 top teams in USAV Invite next week (if they play LBSU here it is huge match).
Arizona - need to beat 2+ of Pepp, USC/UCLA, Georgia State. And beat LSU.
*EAST (bids #2 and #3)
Georgia St - need to beat LSU and either UNF / FSU to lock. Probably still in if they make CCSA tourney finals.
North Florida - need to beat either Georgia State or FSU. Also need to split with Stetson in ASUN tourney.
Stetson - need to beat UNF twice in ASUN tourney to lock. If they split it may be who beats GCU at Siesta.
*East Dark Horses - must win all remaining matches and get some help by East #2-#4 losing multiple times.
FIU – must beat Grand Canyon and Georgia State/LSU in CCSA tourny and get help.
LSU - must beat Arizona, Georgia State, and FIU/GSU in CCSA tourney and get help.
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Post by FOBRA on Apr 5, 2016 14:28:52 GMT -5
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Post by lbsandfan on Apr 5, 2016 14:35:22 GMT -5
Thanks for this info. LBSU has a win over Arizona and Beat Cal, which beat USF .. so hopefully they will stay the course and have enough for a bid. Their only losses have been to the top 5 ranked teams.
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Post by montechello on Apr 5, 2016 16:14:07 GMT -5
San Francisco not in the picture. Weak schedule. No significant wins. Losses to Santa Clara and Cal. Would need to do something surprising this weekend at USAV tourney.
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Post by vbvalley on Apr 5, 2016 21:30:33 GMT -5
Not sure what help FIU needs. If they beat Georgia St and LSU in conference championship, they will be 2-1 against them. The problem is will they get to play both with FSU also there in the bracket..
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Post by Viki on Apr 5, 2016 22:20:08 GMT -5
Pepperdine, USC, UCLA/Hawai'i Florida State, Georgia State, Stetson (FIU IF it happens) The smart thing to do is to--should someone here on VT need advice--use the two atlarge invites toward Div.II ( Carson-Newman OR Eckerd) AND Div.III-- Concordia Irvine. Boise State, Washington, Oregon and Nebraska would also have been good options, but LSU (with a very decent record) would be even better. Strategy. 
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Post by gobruins on Apr 6, 2016 4:01:50 GMT -5
Rain in the forecast for Southern Calif. this weekend. So, schedule could be flexible. |
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 6, 2016 11:53:17 GMT -5
Not sure what help FIU needs. If they beat Georgia St and LSU in conference championship, they will be 2-1 against them. The problem is will they get to play both with FSU also there in the bracket.. Right now FIU is behind Georgia State in W/L record, common opponents, and significant W/L. And GSU has a chance to stretch that lead by playing Arizona, FSU and UNF before the CCSA tournament. Unless GSU falters, there is no way FIU wins any of those categories by just beating GSU once more, though they would get head-to-head edge. FIU is clearly behind Stetson in W/L record, head-to-head, and significant W/L, so I am guessing you think they are ahead of UNF or can easily catch them? Even if correct that puts them at #4 East, needing to improve. FIU and UNF are very close in criteria (for #4 place East)! UNF clearly ahead in W/L, but FIU might have a razor edge in common opponents, not sure how they will evaluate records vs FAU. They are tied in significant W/L and no head-to-head. UNF also has chances to move clearly ahead before conference tournaments, as they play FSU and GSU beforehand. Which is mainly why I gave them the edge. Even if UNF doesn't do anything special before tournaments, they could match FIU beating GSU by UNF beating Stetson, and we would be right back at very close criteria for 4th. Right now FIU's only significant win is Georgia State - who they actually split with, so they do not have head-to-head edge. They also have a "bad" loss to LSU who is not under consideration for tournament. Add in a poor win/loss record, and only GCU match left to improve their resume and hope for a good draw at CCSA, then beat GSU/FSU there. FIU is behind by 1 or 2 spots and needs help. If FIU, Stetson, GSU and UNF win out - FIU stays home. If Stetson, UNF and GSU just improve their resume before conference tournament, FIU may need to beat both FSU and GSU (if bracket allows) to earn a bid. They have the hardest path at this moment. P.S. I think the CCSA tournament is double elim - so FIU could also end up 2-2 with Georgia State, or not even not face them at all as you mentioned and still be 1-1. |
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Post by vbvalley on Apr 6, 2016 21:10:09 GMT -5
Wow, I do like someone who is optomistic. If UNF or GSU can pull all of those victories that you mention are out there, they will deserve to go. Are you really comparing FNU's schedule to FIU's? Well, the next few weeks will tell.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 6, 2016 21:22:46 GMT -5
Wow, I do like someone who is optomistic. If UNF or GSU can pull all of those victories that you mention are out there, they will deserve to go. Are you really comparing FNU's schedule to FIU's? Well, the next few weeks will tell. My point was that GSU and Stetson are ahead of FIU in criteria NOW, and possibly UNF also. The fact that they all have more opportunities than FIU to improve their resume over remainder of season is just an added bonus. Was responding to your question of "what help does FIU need" to get into NCAA. Short answer is make CCSA finals and pray for other bubble teams to lose. |
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 7, 2016 17:17:31 GMT -5
A friend just told me that the NCAA says BEACH will definitely NOT be using RPI this season after all, and are not sure about SOS. It is unclear if they will replace these criteria, or just drop them. NCAA is supposed to do a press release on this soon.
This should not significantly change my current bracketology of teams, unless RPI & SOS criteria are replaced by something unusual like "record in last 10 matches" and "road record" or such.
However, teams that scheduled tough and lose some, like LBSU and FIU, will have a much tougher time earning a bid without RPI and SOS as criteria. I was expecting them both to win SOS and probably RPI over some of the other bubble teams.
This appears to really help the teams that scheduled soft, with a few tough matches mixed in occasionally.
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Post by vbvalley on Apr 7, 2016 17:44:41 GMT -5
If it seemed like I inferred that FIU was in without having to compete and do well the balance of the season, that would be incorrect (though there are actually some that think that after they beat Georgia St...). I am curious as to who is picking the Final 8. If it is going to be done that way, won't the selection committee informally be using their own take on the RPI and SOS? That is a big reason that I do not see UNF making the cut. This will all be figured out in the next few weeks, especially when UNF plays Florida St, Georgia State, So. Carolina and Grand Canyon.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 8, 2016 19:59:50 GMT -5
I am curious as to who is picking the Final 8. If it is going to be done that way, won't the selection committee informally be using their own take on the RPI and SOS? That is a big reason that I do not see UNF making the cut. The NCAA selection committee is usually 3-5 college administrators that simply compare the primary selection criteria of the teams under consideration. There is virtually ZERO subjectivity in this process, except for maybe who the "teams under consideration are". They are specifically NOT allowed to "informally use their own RPI or SOS". Also they are NOT allowed to use the AVCA coaches poll. All they do is compare every teams 5-9 primary criteria items and see who wins the majority of criteria against other teams in their region and later in At-Large pool. Almost like a computer program. A close approximation of their criteria is listed at top of this thread, though it may be changing slightly in the next week or two from what a friend tells me. If teams are tied for the last spot, they also have a secondary set of criteria which is usually something like - last 10 games record, road record, and other circumstances such as injury/illness affecting results. The NCAA Beach Championship Manual, pre-tournament manual, committee info, and final selection criteria have not been released yet. Only 3 weeks from the selection show!! I'm guessing they are a little behind on logistics with this being the first NCAA season for Beach. |
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Post by vbvalley on Apr 8, 2016 22:42:18 GMT -5
Fabulous! I thought it was going to be more like the prior AVCA selections. Thanks.
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