|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 20, 2016 18:36:59 GMT -5
AT-LARGE BID #2 FAVORITES:
Criteria is Strength of Schedule (SoS), Head to Head (H2H), Common Opponents (COP), Overall W/L Record with Significant W/L (OREC)
LBSU: needs 1 win over USC or Hawaii, and must finish with a winning record. LBSU versus Arizona: +SoS +H2H =COP -OREC. Edge to LBSU LBSU versus East bubble teams: +SoS, +COP (if beat USC/Hawaii) =H2H -OREC. Edge to LBSU.
Arizona: probably needs 1 win versus USC or UCLA, and for LBSU to lose. Arizona would tie LBSU if Arizona beats both USC & UCLA while LBSU beats one of USC/Hawaii (COP would go to AZ). Arizona versus other West bubbles: ahead in every category except SoS. Arizona versus East bubble teams: ahead of all in COP (except GSU), H2H even or ahead, then split on SoS and OREC versus most.
GSU: if GSU isn't East #2 or #3, and AZ doesn’t beat USC/UCLA they’d be tied with AZ in At-Large criteria. GSU versus Arizona: +SoS -H2H =COP =OREC
There are many other weird scenarios, but these seem the most likely.
|
|
|
Post by lbsandfan on Apr 20, 2016 19:30:45 GMT -5
I think what's important for LBSU is which teams they are scheduled to play this weekend at Aloha Invit'l and next for the BW Championship .. If they aren't scheduled against USC or Hawaii this weekend they have a great shot at improving to or above .500.
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 20, 2016 20:25:59 GMT -5
REGION BID CRITERIA:
1) Region W/L Record (including significant region wins & losses) = RREC 2) Strength of Schedule = SoS 3) Head-to-Head competition = H2H 4) Results versus Common Opponents = COP 5) Overall W/L Record (including significant wins & losses) = OREC
EAST #2 and #3 FAVORITES:
GSU and Stetson are slightly ahead now, but much could change this weekend.
GSU – Wins over FIU and FAU on Friday will lock them in at East #2 or #3. If they lose to one, that team could pass or tie GSU in criteria with a strong performance in CCSA tournament. GSU would be behind in H2H and SoS, but ahead in RREC and OREC. Every remaining match would be crucial for COP at that point.
Stetson is probably ahead of all CCSA bubbles except GSU (which is close). If they avoid a bad loss, and split with UNF, they are probably in as East #3. However, they could find themselves in a pickle if GSU does not take care of business. See bottom. Also, curious how the committee will evaluate their very weak schedule and lack of quality wins, especially if someone upsets FSU this weekend. They could be the only team invited to NCAA without a win against the tournament field.
FIU, LSU, and FAU need to outperform GSU (and each other) at CCSA. A win over FSU would be nice, but basically they each want to beat everyone else. Actually LSU may need to beat FSU to move up. If one of these teams can go 4-1 or 5-1 they have a chance at NCAA.
However, if FIU, LSU or FAU have a great CCSA tournament, we could have a weird situation with 3 teams in a triangle for 2 spots. Such as, FIU with better criteria than GSU, but behind Stetson. GSU ahead of Stetson in criteria but behind FIU. Stetson ahead of FIU, but behind GSU.
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 21, 2016 12:16:42 GMT -5
I think what's important for LBSU is which teams they are scheduled to play this weekend at Aloha Invit'l and next for the BW Championship .. If they aren't scheduled against USC or Hawaii this weekend they have a great shot at improving to or above .500. They play Washington first on Friday, then Hawaii if they win. It is a double-elim bracket, so they could get a couple more matches. The Big West conference tournament is the same format, but as #2 seed they will get a bye, then play winner of #3/#6 match. P.S. They need to beat USC/Hawaii not only to get above .500, but also to win COP versus some East bubble teams. Otherwise they would be tied in criteria +SOS -OREC =COP =H2H.
|
|
|
Post by vbvalley on Apr 22, 2016 9:46:08 GMT -5
GSU beats FIU 3-2 after being down 2-1. Final match was the #1s that went 15-13, GSU.
|
|
|
Post by paidlive on Apr 22, 2016 10:12:41 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure that LBSU, losing as many times to Hawai'i, will keep them at home for Beach. The MVB team I think just gets in by the slimmest of margins. IF Stanford makes it in over the 49ers, something is wrong.
|
|
|
Post by vbvalley on Apr 22, 2016 11:42:04 GMT -5
LSU almost pulls off the upset, but loses 3-2 to FSU. What an interesting mess that would have caused, possibly helping FIU in the single elimination playoff later on. GSU plays FAU in about two hours and will come very close to locking up an East bid with a victory as FIU would have to beat FSU to get a rematch with GSU.
|
|
|
Post by vbvalley on Apr 22, 2016 16:58:01 GMT -5
GSU beats FAU 3-2, FIU beats Tulane 4-1 and has won pool as they play 0-2 Tulane tomorrow. As expected, FSU is 2-0 and LSU 1-1 in their pool. One more pool match for all teams tomorrow and then quarterfinals.
|
|
|
Post by vbvalley on Apr 22, 2016 16:59:26 GMT -5
Want to make sure there is no confusion, GSU has won the pool, as they play Tulane tomorrow.
|
|
|
Post by paidlive on Apr 22, 2016 21:01:20 GMT -5
#8 Stetson, tomorrow, with their 3rd win over FGCU ends up 28-6 (even before Sunday, 4/24).
They're No.2/3 from the "east".
|
|
|
Post by vbvalley on Apr 23, 2016 14:07:02 GMT -5
So. Carolina 4-1 over FIU in quarterfinals. Is anyone in the East going to get one of the two at large bids?
|
|
|
Post by wang pu on Apr 23, 2016 15:49:03 GMT -5
Team duals (double elimination) Grand Canyon 1 (Mackenzie Phelps/Shannin Dugan) def. Long Beach State 1 (Nele Barber/Rachel Nieto), 18-21, 26-24, 15-12. Grand Canyon 2 (Aleksandra Wachowicz/Molly Turner) def. Long Beach State 2 (Jenelle Hudson/Zoi Konstantopolou), 14-21, 21-7, 15-13. Long Beach State 3 (Samantha Thomas/Kobi Pekich) def. Grand Canyon 3 (Brooke Razo/Emilee Erichsen), 21-9, 21-23, 15-11. Grand Canyon 4 (Lindsey Dickerson/Jordyn Sanchez) def. Long Beach State 4 (Mykah Wilson/Ciana Wagner), 19-21, 21-18, 15-12. Grand Canyon 5 (Rebecca Conrad/Chloe Jenkins) def. Long Beach State 5 (Ciana Wagner/Megan Kruidhof), 18-21, 21-16, 15-10. Grand Canyon def. Long Beach State, 4-1.
Does LBSU losing to GCU affect LBSU's chances?
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 23, 2016 22:36:03 GMT -5
LBSU losing to GCU puts them behind in the common opponents criteria against some bubble teams, as well as making it more difficult to post a winning record.
|
|
|
Post by montechello on Apr 24, 2016 14:58:29 GMT -5
The championship field seems to be set: Southern Cal Pepperdine Florida State UCLA Hawaii Georgia State Stetson … and either Long Beach or Arizona, depending on the Big West and Pac 12 tourneys. Arizona's soft schedule might pay off with a bid.
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 24, 2016 16:13:25 GMT -5
EAST REGION BIDS - my analysis and predictions.
#2 EAST BID is GSU, closest competitor is Stetson. GSU versus Stetson comparison: edge GSU RREC = EVEN (maybe GSU) SoS = GSU H2H = GSU COP = EVEN (Stetson wins Tulane/FIU while GSU wins FAU/UNF) OREC = EVEN (maybe GSU)
#3 EAST BID is Stetson, closest competitors are UNF, LSU, FIU Stetson vs UNF comparison: edge Stetson RREC = Stetson (too many bad losses by UNF) SoS = not sure, both are bad, but it does not matter H2H = UNF OREC = Stetson (too many bad losses by UNF) COP = Stetson (Stetson wins SCarolina, Tulane, CofC, FGCU while UNF wins FAU)
Stetson vs LSU comparison: edge Stetson RREC = Stetson (edge in W/L% and beat LSU, FIU, UNF while LSU beat FIU) SoS = LSU H2H = Stetson OREC = Stetson (edgee in W/L% and beat LSU, FIU, UNF while LSU beat FIU) COP = EVEN (LSU wins FAU and Stetson wins FIU).
Stetson vs FIU comparison: edge Stetson RREC = Stetson (edge in W/L% and beat LSU, FIU, UNF while FIU split with GSU, LSU) SoS = FIU H2H = Stetson OREC = Stetson (edge in W/L% and beat LSU, FIU, UNF while FIU split with GSU, LSU) COP = EVEN (Stetson wins LSU/SCarolina while FIU wins FAU/GSU).
Are there any other teams I am missing that may be considered for East #3?
CRITERIA: 1) Region W/L Record (including significant region wins & losses) = RREC 2) Strength of Schedule = SoS 3) Head-to-Head competition = H2H 4) Results versus Common Opponents = COP 5) Overall W/L Record (including significant wins & losses) = OREC
|
|