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Post by trollhunter on Apr 24, 2016 18:13:35 GMT -5
AT-LARGE BID #2 - my analysis and predictions:
This is a very close race and will come down to the final regular season matches. Arizona would go if the season ended today, and are my prediction for At-Large #2.
Arizona: needs to beat 1 of USC/UCLA, or for LBSU to lose to Hawaii (or someone else). Comparisons in the situation above: AZ vs LBSU: -SoS, -H2H, +COP (USC/UCLA) +OREC. EVEN (if LBSU is eligible). AZ vs FIU: -SoS =H2H, +COP (GSU & LSU), +OREC. Edge to AZ. AZ vs UNF: +SoS, =H2H, +COP (GSU), =OREC. Edge to AZ. AZ vs LSU: ?SoS, +H2H, +COP (GSU), =OREC. Edge to AZ. LBSU vs FIU: +SoS, =H2H, =COP (beat Hawaii, lost GCU), -OREC. EVEN (depending on OREC evaluation). LBSU vs UNF: +SoS, =H2H, -COP (lost GCU), -OREC. Edge to UNF. LBSU vs LSU: +SoS, +H2H, =COP (beat AZ, lost GCU), -OREC. Edge to LBSU. UNF vs FIU: -SoS, =H2H, -COP (beat SU, lost FAU, SCarolina, Tulane) +OREC. Edge to FIU. UNF vs LSU: ?SoS, =H2H, -COP (beat SU, lost FAU, Scarolina, Tulane) +OREC. Edge to LSU I think on SoS but not sure. FIU vs LSU: +SoS, =H2H, =COP (beat GSU, lost Scarolina) -OREC. EVEN
In the above scenario AZ is even with LBSU and ahead of everyone else. LBSU is tied with a couple teams and behind one. Not sure if there is a secondary criteria for ties, or what it is, if they will use it.
LBSU needs a win over Hawaii, must finish with a winning record, and AZ not to beat USC/UCLA. If so it is this chaos:
LBSU vs AZ: +SoS, +H2H, =COP (if AZ doesn't beat USC/UCLA) -OREC. Edge to LBSU. LBSU vs FIU: +SoS, =H2H, =COP (beat Hawaii, lost GCU), -OREC. EVEN (depending on OREC evaluation). LBSU vs UNF: +SoS, =H2H, -COP (lost GCU), -OREC. Edge to UNF. LBSU vs LSU: +SoS, +H2H, =COP (beat AZ, lost GCU), -OREC. Edge to LBSU. UNF vs FIU: -SoS, =H2H, -COP (beat SU, lost FAU, SCarolina, Tulane) +OREC. Edge to FIU. UNF vs LSU: ?SoS, =H2H, -COP (beat SU, lost FAU, Scarolina, Tulane) +OREC. Edge to LSU I think on SoS but not sure. FIU vs LSU: +SoS, =H2H, =COP (beat GSU, lost Scarolina) -OREC. EVEN AZ vs FIU: -SoS =H2H, +COP (GSU & LSU), +OREC. Edge to AZ. AZ vs UNF: +SoS, =H2H, +COP (GSU), =OREC. Edge to AZ. AZ vs LSU: ?SoS, +H2H, +COP (GSU), =OREC. Edge to AZ.
I guess that chaos is what the bubble East teams must hope for, and hope they are ahead on secondary criteria for ties.
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Post by vbvalley on Apr 24, 2016 19:23:52 GMT -5
Amazing, and thanks, Trollhunter. After getting beat by So. Carolina 4-1 in the CCSA quarterfinals, do you really think FIU can get a bid?
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Post by montechello on Apr 24, 2016 19:59:00 GMT -5
It isn't so complicated. Here's the championship field: Southern Cal Pepperdine Florida State UCLA Hawaii Georgia State Stetson … and either Long Beach or Arizona, depending on the upcoming Big West and Pac 12 tourneys.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 24, 2016 20:30:50 GMT -5
Amazing, and thanks, Trollhunter. After getting beat by So. Carolina 4-1 in the CCSA quarterfinals, do you really think FIU can get a bid? No i dont think FIU has a chance for a bid. I merely included them in my analysis since they are were anong the top 5 teams in the East
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 24, 2016 20:33:41 GMT -5
It isn't so complicated. Here's the championship field: Southern Cal Pepperdine Florida State UCLA Hawaii Georgia State Stetson … and either Long Beach or Arizona, depending on the upcoming Big West and Pac 12 tourneys. I've been saying that for 3 weeks on this thread. My most recent posts were an answer to WHY those teams will be chosen.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 26, 2016 16:47:12 GMT -5
Does anyone know if wins or losses at both the Alohoa Invitational and the Big West Conference Championship team matches will go towards Long Beach's chance to get the 2nd at large bid?? The Big West Championship is just one day prior to NCAA choosing the teams to go to Gulf Shores. Also .. does a teams W/L record have to be more than .500 or can it be at .500 exactly?? Yes, the BW tournament matches will count. The NCAA pre-tournament manual finally was released. "To be considered during the at-large selection process, a team must have an overall won-lost record of .500 or better" It matters, since the BW tournament is true double-elim with a "double final" if needed. The paths for LBSU to be in contention for a NCAA bid are: A) Win their Friday match vs 3/6, lose first match Sat to Hawaii in winner-bracket final, beat someone in loser bracket, then beat Hawaii in the final. Even if they then lose the double-final, they end up 3-2 for tournament, at .500, and a good win over Hawaii. B) Lose their first match Friday, then battle thru the losers bracket to be 3-1 going into the final. C) Win Friday, then beat Hawaii early on Saturday, then beat Hawaii again in either the final or double-final. Note that LBSU must beat Hawaii twice on Saturday if they stay in this winners bracket path to still have a .500 record.
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Post by sdcatfan on Apr 27, 2016 1:31:02 GMT -5
Isn't Long Beach 10-12 in eyes of NCAA as 1 of their wins was against NAIA Concordia? If so, don't they have to win the big west to finish over .500?
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 27, 2016 12:27:13 GMT -5
Isn't Long Beach 10-12 in eyes of NCAA as 1 of their wins was against NAIA Concordia? If so, don't they have to win the big west to finish over .500? Almost a good catch, but for a different reason. They played Concordia-Irvine which is a D2 program and D2 counts toward National Collegiate Championship (just like Men's Indoor Volleyball). The near problem is that Irvine played a lot of their matches versus JuCo teams, which do not count. However, they did barely play "a majority of their competition" against varsity 4 year teams. Which is specifically required in pre-tournament manual. "For NCAA team-championship selection purposes, competition is countable only when the teams played are varsity intercollegiate teams of four-year, degree-granting institutions that conduct a majority of their competition in that team sport against varsity intercollegiate teams (see Constitution 3.2.4.5) of United States four-year, degree-granting institutions. Competition against service teams, professional teams, semiprofessional teams, amateur teams, two-year colleges and club teams shall be excluded." So NAIA does not count, yet, since Beach is not a NAIA varsity sport, but Concordia-Irvine is D2 and does count. Another issue is that several Beach teams did not play the NCAA minimum required schedule for Beach sponsorship, such as Nebraska and some first year programs. My guess is that NCAA will still count those matches this year, but may pull their sponsorship or have some repercussion next year. Even teams just playing a handful of matches are listed under Sport Sponsorship in pre-tournament manual.
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Post by sdcatfan on Apr 28, 2016 9:33:00 GMT -5
Thanks! I didn't know Concordia bumped up to D2 level. Looking forward to a good weekend if VB and selections on Sunday.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 28, 2016 10:04:10 GMT -5
Thanks! I didn't know Concordia bumped up to D2 level. Looking forward to a good weekend if VB and selections on Sunday. They are still in the transition phase from NAIA to NCAA D2, so quite understandable. They are in year #2 and should be a full member in another year or two. They are listed as a West division member for sports sponsorship in the Beach pre-tournament manual, so I am pretty sure they count.
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Post by trollhunter on May 1, 2016 14:28:25 GMT -5
Bid predictions are much the same as last couple weeks:
*WEST (3 bids): All 3 West bids are locked, although order could change. USC, PEP, UCLA
*EAST (2 of 3 bids are locked): FSU, GSU Stetson is my pick for East #3, but it is close in criteria with UNF. UNF would have a bid in past years (and in future years) for winning ASUN tournament, probably not this year. LSU / FIU losing to TCU and SCarolina sealed their fate.
*AT-LARGE (1 of 2 bids is locked) Hawaii - is way ahead of other bubble teams in criteria. Arizona is my pick for At-Large #2. UNF is close in criteria, but I think their bad losses will be the difference. LBSU is ineligible with a losing record, due to scheduling too tough and losing to GCU.
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Post by trollhunter on May 1, 2016 14:36:48 GMT -5
Seeding predictions:
1/2 is USC/FSU. Criteria is very close. May come down to is USC beats UCLA in final.
3/4 is Pepperdine/UCLA. Criteria very close. Will depend on if UCLA beats USC in final.
5 Hawaii
6/7 Arizona/GSU. Very close in criteria. May depend on how AZ finishes PAC tourney.
8 Stetson
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Post by socalsurf on May 1, 2016 17:39:28 GMT -5
Wow, huge win for Arizona to keep their Gulf Shores hopes alive with a 3-2 win over UCLA in the semis of the Contender's bracket...
The Witt's clinched it at the one spot after they got wins at 5 and 3, but the 2s went to a third set to end the final score at 3-2.
USC vs. Arizona in the championship match coming up at 4 PM.
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Post by GoUCLA on May 1, 2016 17:55:43 GMT -5
Wow, huge win for Arizona to keep their Gulf Shores hopes alive with a 3-2 win over UCLA in the semis of the Contender's bracket... The Witt's clinched it at the one spot after they got wins at 5 and 3, but the 2s went to a third set to end the final score at 3-2. USC vs. Arizona in the championship match coming up at 4 PM. That match on court 5 ended up being the decider. UCLA had match points in the third but UA came back to win. Congrats to them. It was a fun match.
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Post by trollhunter on May 2, 2016 14:08:12 GMT -5
My bid predictions worked out as expected.
Almost got seeding perfect but had USC/FSU flipped.
The top 2 seeds are heavy favorites to win, but PEP/UCLA/HAWAII have proven potential for upsets.
I don't think AZ, GSU, or STETSON have much chance versus the top teams. AZ did pull their only big win at PAC tourney, but other two have not really beaten anyone.
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