trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 28,164
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Post by trojansc on Apr 3, 2021 23:48:53 GMT -5
You are brave for trying to sort this out. Because of the lack of interconference play, it will impossible in most cases to rank teams. I think they will minimize interconference play before the regionals as a first principle to guide seeding across conferences. For the most part, you have done exactly this, but I'd be really surprised if they put PSU in the same subregional as Nebraska. Technically, PSU cannot be in the same 'subregional' according to the committees rules. Subregional refers to the 1st+2nd round. If Penn State comes out of the Louisville subregional in this scenario, they would meet Nebraska in the Regional Round. I had a hunch they try to avoid conference rematches if possible until the Regional Final - but since it is not explicitly a rule, I decided to mostly let the cards fall how they did.
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Post by Kingsley on Apr 3, 2021 23:56:10 GMT -5
Conference matchups in regional semifinals are only allowed if it's Wisconsin vs. Ohio State.
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Post by silverchloride on Apr 4, 2021 0:03:13 GMT -5
What does last 4 in, out... mean? Thank you in advance =)
LAST 4 IN: Penn State, Florida State, San Diego, Missouri
FIRST 4 OUT: Georgia Tech, Marquette, Kansas State, Tennessee
NEXT 5 OUT: Southern California, Arizona, Arkansas, South Carolina, Illinois
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Post by bbg95 on Apr 4, 2021 0:04:17 GMT -5
I don't want to admit how long it took for me to learn that LIU-Brooklyn wasn't the Blackbirds anymore. Funny thing, one time I was at a college softball tournament, and my team was almost done with Game 1 against a different school and had game 2 scheduled on the same field immediately after against LIU-Brooklyn. I was confused, because you could see a Blue-and-Yellow team lining up outside the opposition dugout, getting ready to take over when Game 1 ended. I was so confused. I'm like, maybe we're not playing on this field, must be an error with the schedule. They're like no, that's LIU-Brooklyn. I'm like.... no? LIU is like Black and Gold. The Blackbirds. Then I was informed they didn't just change to the Sharks, they also changed colors, and drastically so! Apparently, the school chose Sharks over Eagles and Falcons via a vote of students and alumni, which I think is a good move, as Sharks are probably underutilized as a mascot in general. Their color scheme looks more San Diego Chargers than San Jose Sharks to me, though.
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Post by dawgonecrazy on Apr 4, 2021 0:04:18 GMT -5
(1) Wisconsin vs (Weber State/Bowling Green) (16) UCLA vs (Baylor/Rider) (9) BYU vs (Rice/Texas A&M-Corpus Christi) (8) Florida vs (Georgia Tech/Utah Valley)
(5) Minnesota vs (San Diego/High Point) (12) Utah vs (Penn State/North Carolina A&T) (13) Louisville vs (UCF/UMBC) (4) Washington vs (Texas State/Towson)
(3) Texas vs (Wright State/Morehead State) (14) Purdue vs (Pepperdine/Jackson State) (11) Washington State vs (Notre Dame/Samford) (6) Nebraska vs (UNLV/Lipscomb)
(7) Oregon vs (Missouri/South Dakota) (10) Ohio State vs (Creighton/Army) (15) Western Kentucky vs (Pittsburgh/Long Island) (2) Kentucky vs (Dayton/Illinois State)
Last four in: Rice, Georgia Tech, Missouri, San Diego First four out: Florida State, Marquette, Kansas State, Arkansas
Significant differences from TrojanSC
1) Georgia Tech instead of Florida State. Beating UCF is certainly a good win, and I agree that the committee may devalue fall results somewhat. But I don't think that compensates for the fact that GT swept FSU head-to-head. I certainly gave plenty of thought to letting both ahead of either Missouri or San Diego, but came to a similar conclusion about conference precedent that USD and especially Mizzou will probably get the benefit of the doubt as far as "conference allotments" go.
2) Adjustment in Pac-12 pecking order. I don't believe UCLA's somewhat better wins warrant moving them past Utah despite two additional losses, one of which came to USC (both lost to Colorado). Utah I feel is being undervalued: 13-2 while close to full strength, including 1-0 vs WSU. Utah/WSU is much closer to me, and Bruins are the team that ends up in the debate with Baylor for the final spot.
3) Some minor adjustments in team strength: a) If Creighton weren't an auto bid IMO they'd be pretty much on the bubble (not if they lost to Marquette, just if say that they had to withdraw from Big East tourney), so I moved them down closer to the same range as Rice/Georgia Tech/Missouri/etc. b) We don't really know much at all about Towson other than they're better than everyone else in the CAA. But in a year where there's obviously a lot of unknowns, the CAA is generally a middle-of-the-pack conference and they beat a Temple team that beat Cincinnati and Houston. So I put them as a high 3, not a mid 3.
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Post by isaacspaceman on Apr 4, 2021 0:05:04 GMT -5
I don’t think it would matter if you switched Washington and Minnesota. If you did, you presumably would also switch Purdue and WSU to avoid two infra-conference matches in the round of 16, so they’d end up playing the same teams anyway, assuming no upsets.
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Post by bbg95 on Apr 4, 2021 0:06:40 GMT -5
What does last 4 in, out... mean? Thank you in advance =) LAST 4 IN: Penn State, Florida State, San Diego, Missouri FIRST 4 OUT: Georgia Tech, Marquette, Kansas State, Tennessee NEXT 5 OUT: Southern California, Arizona, Arkansas, South Carolina, Illinois The last four in are the teams on the bubble projected in but closest to being out. The first four out are the bubble teams projected to be out but closest to being in. Another way to think about it is the last four in are at-large bids 15-18 (Penn State, Florida State, San Diego and Missouri in that order), while the first four out would be 19-22 (Georgia Tech, Marquette, Kansas State and Tennessee in that order), but there are only 18 at-large bids.
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Post by basil on Apr 4, 2021 0:07:54 GMT -5
What does last 4 in, out... mean? Thank you in advance =) LAST 4 IN: Penn State, Florida State, San Diego, Missouri FIRST 4 OUT: Georgia Tech, Marquette, Kansas State, Tennessee NEXT 5 OUT: Southern California, Arizona, Arkansas, South Carolina, Illinois To my knowledge, this referring to the bubble teams that are all on the edge of getting in and are battling it out with their resumes. This is who trojansc chose to take in to the tournament.
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Post by silverchloride on Apr 4, 2021 0:12:36 GMT -5
What does last 4 in, out... mean? Thank you in advance =) LAST 4 IN: Penn State, Florida State, San Diego, Missouri FIRST 4 OUT: Georgia Tech, Marquette, Kansas State, Tennessee NEXT 5 OUT: Southern California, Arizona, Arkansas, South Carolina, Illinois The last four in are the teams on the bubble projected in but closest to being out. The first four out are the bubble teams projected to be out but closest to being in. Another way to think about it is the last four in are at-large bids 27-30 (Penn State, Florida State, San Diego and Missouri in that order), while the first four out would be 31-34 (Georgia Tech, Marquette, Kansas State and Tennessee in that order), but there are only 30 at-large bids. Ah, so there are 18 teams that have earned a qualifying bid, so to speak, then 30 teams are granted at-large bids? Am I close, lol.
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Post by badgerbreath on Apr 4, 2021 0:12:44 GMT -5
You are brave for trying to sort this out. Because of the lack of interconference play, it will impossible in most cases to rank teams. I think they will minimize interconference play before the regionals as a first principle to guide seeding across conferences. For the most part, you have done exactly this, but I'd be really surprised if they put PSU in the same subregional as Nebraska. Technically, PSU cannot be in the same 'subregional' according to the committees rules. Subregional refers to the 1st+2nd round. If Penn State comes out of the Louisville subregional in this scenario, they would meet Nebraska in the Regional Round. I had a hunch they try to avoid conference rematches if possible until the Regional Final - but since it is not explicitly a rule, I decided to mostly let the cards fall how they did. Yes, I should have said regional finals. I do not think they will allow matchups to happen within conferences until the regional finals, although since PSU and Nebraska haven't played this year, that does provide a justification for letting them play each other.
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Post by bbg95 on Apr 4, 2021 0:14:03 GMT -5
The last four in are the teams on the bubble projected in but closest to being out. The first four out are the bubble teams projected to be out but closest to being in. Another way to think about it is the last four in are at-large bids 27-30 (Penn State, Florida State, San Diego and Missouri in that order), while the first four out would be 31-34 (Georgia Tech, Marquette, Kansas State and Tennessee in that order), but there are only 30 at-large bids. Ah, so there are 18 teams that have earned a qualifying bid, so to speak, then 30 teams are granted at-large bids? Am I close, lol. Sorry, I screwed up. There are 30 auto bids and 18 at-large this year. I'll fix it. But the general idea that I outlined is correct, lol.
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Post by silverchloride on Apr 4, 2021 0:15:15 GMT -5
What does last 4 in, out... mean? Thank you in advance =) LAST 4 IN: Penn State, Florida State, San Diego, Missouri FIRST 4 OUT: Georgia Tech, Marquette, Kansas State, Tennessee NEXT 5 OUT: Southern California, Arizona, Arkansas, South Carolina, Illinois To my knowledge, this referring to the bubble teams that are all on the edge of getting in and are battling it out with their resumes. This is who trojansc chose to take in to the tournament. I am getting closer to understanding, thank you =)
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Post by ay2013 on Apr 4, 2021 0:18:16 GMT -5
This is my prediction / what I think they should do with the 16 seeds:
1- Wisconsin 8- Purdue 9- Oregon 16- Baylor
2- Kentucky 7- Florida 10- Ohio State 15- Utah
3- Texas 6- Nebraska 11- BYU 14- Western Kentucky
4- Minnesota 5- Washington 12- Louisville 13- Washington State
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Post by silverchloride on Apr 4, 2021 0:18:49 GMT -5
Ah, so there are 18 teams that have earned a qualifying bid, so to speak, then 30 teams are granted at-large bids? Am I close, lol. Sorry, I screwed up. Their are 30 auto bids and 18 at-large this year. I'll fix it. But the general idea that I outlined is correct, lol. No worries, I would not have known you had made an error =) So, there are 30 teams that are already qualified, then 18 at-large, but 14 are pretty much shoo ins, with the LAST 4 in probably being the top choices EDIT: for the last 4 teams to be considered, thumbs up emoji
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trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 28,164
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Post by trojansc on Apr 4, 2021 0:19:15 GMT -5
2) Adjustment in Pac-12 pecking order. I don't believe UCLA's somewhat better wins warrant moving them past Utah despite two additional losses, one of which came to USC (both lost to Colorado). Utah I feel is being undervalued: 13-2 while close to full strength, including 1-0 vs WSU. Utah/WSU is much closer to me, and Bruins are the team that ends up in the debate with Baylor for the final spot. 3) Some minor adjustments in team strength: a) If Creighton weren't an auto bid IMO they'd be pretty much on the bubble (not if they lost to Marquette, just if say that they had to withdraw from Big East tourney), so I moved them down closer to the same range as Rice/Georgia Tech/Missouri/etc. b) We don't really know much at all about Towson other than they're better than everyone else in the CAA. But in a year where there's obviously a lot of unknowns, the CAA is generally a middle-of-the-pack conference and they beat a Temple team that beat Cincinnati and Houston. So I put them as a high 3, not a mid 3. I just don't see it with Utah. They were very fortunate to play a Washington State team that was missing key players. Besides that, they split with UCLA. They didn't beat Oregon (didn't play) or Washington and lost to Colorado. UCLA beat Washington, Oregon, Washington State, and Utah. I think that matters more, even with an additional loss to USC. We'll see, I probably should give the 'Utes more credit for the Wazzu wins based on Bracketology terms. Could definitely be right on Creighton. I wouldn't be surprised to see Creighton anywhere from 17-32(unofficially), but, the committee has stated they will only seed the Top 16 teams. That means the placements of the 17-48 could be all over the place, but I hope they try to keep them in some relevant groupings/orders. Kind of related to this, Towson only played 6 matches this season, and I don't know what their thought process will be with some AQ's who are 22-1 vs. 6-0. I guess I technically seeded it 17-48 with some adjustments, even though they aren't listed here. Will be interesting to see what happens. I will feel for FSU if they get left out more than I will feel for GA Tech, Mizzou, San Diego, or Marquette getting left out. At least they got better and tried to play someone relevant. I have very little expectations tomorrow. A curveball would kind of be exciting honestly, since there is no precedence for a season like this. But, I really hope they do not have regionalization and have spread out the conferences maybe even more than I have, in terms of pairings.
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