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Post by udubhuskiefan on Apr 4, 2021 9:11:15 GMT -5
Love my huskies, but if these matchups work out, I can see Purdue giving Washington some trouble
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Post by bigfan on Apr 4, 2021 9:37:55 GMT -5
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Post by Brutus Buckeye on Apr 4, 2021 9:44:29 GMT -5
it isn't going to include the Wolverines.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Apr 4, 2021 9:45:11 GMT -5
Why do you say that Florida did not lose this Spring and has *one* win vs Kentucky? I think they played twice and split. They split! Sorry, that was meant to say they haven't had any bad losses this spring. Went unbeaten+split with UK. They're playing better. I still think the SCAR+UGA losses matter, but will be outweighed by the UK split with nobody else beating UK.
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Post by bigsouth on Apr 4, 2021 9:59:17 GMT -5
Although I believe they both have a chance to make the tournament, If it comes down to Georgia Tech and Florida State for the last spot, the committee will have two things to consider. The first being that GT beat FSU head to head twice during Florida State first weekend of play. GT had already played the previous weekend against Miami. As pointed out by aardvark, both matches at GT were 0-3 sweeps. trojansc, wrote that these matches were "forever ago", but that may not make a difference.
Florida State does have the win over AAC Champion, UCF, their only loss on the season. GT has no non-conference matches. And Florida State has a win over Notre Dame 3-2 in March, who is in 2nd place in the ACC. Georgia Tech just lost 0-3 at home against Notre Dame. However, still head to head, GT beat FSU twice in early October. Some would say the head to head match is still the most important factor.
I think it is more likely that the committee will have to decide if FSU Taryn Knuth is an impact player. Taryn currently leads the NCAA in Hitting Percentage at .544 (2.46 kpg), a substantial lead over second place Nationally at .473. Taryn was the ACC Defensive Player of the Year in 2019 and currently #21 Nationally in Blocking at 1.42 bpg. Why would this make a difference? Due to an injury, Taryn didn't play any of the matches during the Fall Semester, so she did not play against Georgia Tech. In her first matches played in the Spring, Taryn was the "National Player of the Week".
Many teams dealt with injuries and covid this year, so we will see how the committee views matches where players were missing. And in particular, if "impact" players were missing.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Apr 4, 2021 10:06:15 GMT -5
"Georgia Tech's two wins over FSU are forever ago, does that matter?" By "forever" you mean on October 7th and 8th. And both wins were sweeps. GT ends with a better conference record and better overall record. If you are correct, and the NCAA snubs GT yet *again*, their fans will be left to wonder how badly they were hurt by having their starting setter miss most of the spring season with an injury, and by pundits like you who want to put vastly more weight into spring season results over fall season ones.Left out some things. The scores of the six games where FSU lost to GT were 25-17, 25-18, 26-24, 25-14, 25-17, 25-20. But don't mind these data points, as they are forever ago so they shouldn't be counted. Forever plus two weeks though, *that* matters. Also, I am unhappy with your indication that GT's chances of getting in are lessened by the historical comparison between the ACC and SEC. Either we are doing this by school or we aren't. can't have it both ways. The NCAA has gone on record that they assess each school individually. That may of course be just a lie. But that is what they say. First, we'll start with last year: Georgia Tech was 56th in RPI last year with only two top 50 wins, split with Notre Dame and beat Florida State. GTech also lost to ASU and Kennesaw St in the non-conference, Georgia Tech's best non-conference win was #113 Long Beach State. Pepperdine, Milwaukee, Coastal Carolina, California, Green Bay, and South Dakota all had better RPI rankings than Georgia Tech and still missed the tournament. Georgia Tech needed serious merits to jump those teams and their significant wins just weren't there to give them an argument. It was not a snub by the NCAA Tournament committee. Now the rest of your comments make it seem like you pretty GT-invested, so I'm very sorry if Georgia Tech gets left out again, if only for the fact that it's just hurtful not seeing your team make it. I will be dealing with that feeling for the first time in 11 years of being a Trojan faithful. Also, like GT Fans will wonder about missing their setter, FSU will wonder what happened without Knuth. Both are legitimate claims, but I was not disappointed with D'Amico. I'm not putting *vastly* more weight into the Spring, but slightly more. The committee does has never gone on record and say we give X conference the benefit of the doubt. This year is unique -- the Big 10, Pac-12, and SEC are not playing out of conference. So, why in particular are the Big 10 and Pac-12 going to get more at-large bids? Because they always do, for the past 10 years consistently. That's my prediction at least, and I think it's what the committee is going to be forced to do. A lot of this is unprecedented and is just a best guess. Unfortunately for you, most of my best guesses are normally right. However, you get a chance to be among one of the few! The one per year! Pacific was the 2nd place WCC team in 2014 -- beat 5th-place WCC Loyola Marymount twice (including in their house) and LMU got an NCAA bid while Pacific did not. I was very sad and even disappointed that Pacific did not get in above a team who I think didn't deserve to be there over them (Michigan St). but I was correct that the committee would not add Pacific. Personally, the team I have included that I don't think should be there is Missouri. I will not be disappointed if I'm wrong there, and the first team I would put in is Georgia Tech. It was a very tough decision as I mentioned, but I do this trying to predict what the committee will do, and that's what I came up with.
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Post by photos1 on Apr 4, 2021 10:08:42 GMT -5
There can be no justification for Washington at #4. Yes, everyone points at the horrendous ASU loss, but it was the 5 set win over Stanford a week ago that leaves Washington no better than a 7 or 8 seed. They beat a Stanford team in 5 sets that had only 8 players available, and not their 8 best players; a Stanford team that has woefully under-trained the past year to the point they not only practiced on grass, it is still not clear they have ever been able to practice 6 on 6. Everyone has a limited resume to put forth for consideration for this 48-team tournament and a close look at Washington’s makes them no better than a 7 seed, unless you think their losses are better than #6 Texas’ debacle with lowly Rice. I just don’t. Washington’s tournament will only last as long as they are able to avoid a B1G team. If Washington played the exact schedule that Illinois played-they would not have won more matches than the Illini did. Sorry...in the spring of 2021 the PAC12 champion is a paper tiger.
Frankly, the top 4 seeds for sure should be B1G teams, and probably the top 5. 👍
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Apr 4, 2021 10:09:43 GMT -5
Although I believe they both have a chance to make the tournament, If it comes down to Georgia Tech and Florida State for the last spot, the committee will have two things to consider. The first being that GT beat FSU head to head twice during Florida State first weekend of play. GT had already played the previous weekend against Miami. As pointed out by aardvark, both matches at GT were 0-3 sweeps. trojansc, wrote that these matches were "forever ago", but that may not make a difference. Florida State does have the win over AAC Champion, UCF, their only loss on the season. GT has no non-conference matches. And Florida State has a win over Notre Dame 3-2 in March, who is in 2nd place in the ACC. Georgia Tech just lost 0-3 at home against Notre Dame. However, still head to head, GT beat FSU twice in early October. Some would say the head to head match is still the most important factor. I think it is more likely that the committee will have to decide if FSU Taryn Knuth is an impact player. Taryn currently leads the NCAA in Hitting Percentage at .544 (2.46 kpg), a substantial lead over second place Nationally at .473. Taryn was the ACC Defensive Player of the Year in 2019 and currently #21 Nationally in Blocking at 1.42 bpg. Why would this make a difference? Due to an injury, Taryn didn't play any of the matches during the Fall Semester, so she did not play against Georgia Tech. In her first matches played in the Spring, Taryn was the "National Player of the Week". Many teams dealt with injuries and covid this year, so we will see how the committee views matches where players were missing. And in particular, if "impact" players were missing. These are all excellent points and were taken into account in my decision making. I don't know how the injuries/availability will be taken into account, but it is hard to shake them from your brain when you actually watch the matchups, especially in comparison from Spring to Fall. I don't know if H2H is the 'most' important factor. It is an important factor. I would like to see both included. I will not be disappointed in Georgia Tech is included and Florida State is not. I will be disappointed if Missouri, Marquette, and/or Kansas State are included -- and Florida State is not.
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Post by bprtbone on Apr 4, 2021 10:14:48 GMT -5
it isn't going to include the Wolverines. You will be pleased to know Brutus that it won't include any team from the State of Michigan; first time since 2005. All of my postseason hopes now lie with Utah Valley.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Apr 4, 2021 10:26:30 GMT -5
I always like to check bubble team's last match of the season recaps and see if they have comments or acknowledge the NCAA selection show: Missouri, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Florida State, Marquette, and San Diego pretty much all mention "Awaiting the fate" of the NCAA Selection show.
Well, they all seem to know, and they know there ain't enough room for all of them.
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Post by Brutus Buckeye on Apr 4, 2021 10:33:33 GMT -5
it isn't going to include the Wolverines. You will be pleased to know Brutus that it won't include any team from the State of Michigan; first time since 2005. All of my postseason hopes now lie with Utah Valley. Yes, that is good news regarding the Michigan teams. Utah Valley is an interesting choice for a Michigander. Is it because they are called the Wolverines? I saw them twice this year, btw.
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Post by aardvark on Apr 4, 2021 10:43:03 GMT -5
My memory on last year's RPI is vague. I seem to recall there were teams invited in with a worse RPI, and that GT didn't have the best RPI of teams left out. However, after all post-season play was concluded, with GT winning the NIT (or whatever it is called), they made another RPI and GT's rank obviously went up, because at that time they did have the highest rank of left out teams. I think it was in the upper 30's or lower 40's.
That year, the losses that held GT back were the early OOC ones. You mentioned Kennesaw State. Our place in the ACC standings, and stuff like taking Pitt to 5 sets late in the year didn't seem to matter. The only stats people find worthy are the ones they need to use to reinforce their own prior notions.
I do feel GT regressed from last year. But for the most part they have the same team as back then with only the starting MB different. So their potential should be the same. To me, that should get them over the hump, as the actual record this year is marginal (13-4).
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Apr 4, 2021 12:11:51 GMT -5
Well, losing in 5 sets has never mattered for NCAA consideration. The most important that matter are RPI and Significant wins/losses in terms of RPI. Late-season performance in secondary criteria that takes place if situations are close or tied. I disagree with your insinuation about stats needing to be used to reinforce prior notions, but you seem ill-informed re: NCAA Criteria. Your place in the ACC Standings is irrelevant to NCAA Tournament selections, as far as 2019 as concerned. This year, it's more murky, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them not go according to conference standings for both seedings an at-larges.
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Post by eazy on Apr 4, 2021 12:55:25 GMT -5
I'm surprised that there was no "You Pick The Last Team In" based on blind resumes. Is that normally from someone who has taken a break?
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Post by trojansc on Apr 4, 2021 13:00:27 GMT -5
I'm surprised that there was no "You Pick The Last Team In" based on blind resumes. Is that normally from someone who has taken a break? I usually did those. But it's impossible to mask the teams really, this year. There is no X team beat #20 and #25 in RPI, but lost to #121. It's more like The SEC #3 team beat nobody and lost to the #5 SEC team twice. The #5 SEC team has more losses but also beat the #4 SEC team. But you can't really do that without making it "not blind". You kinda have to mention the conferences when they didn't play non-conference.
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