FINAL Bracketology - Spring 2021
Apr 3, 2021 22:22:44 GMT -5
bigfan, snickers, and 23 more like this
Post by trojansc on Apr 3, 2021 22:22:44 GMT -5
2021 FINAL Bracketology*
NCAA Selection Show: Sunday, April 4th at 4:00pm ET - Selection Show Thread by Kingsley
Notes below, please avoid quoting entire original post.
*Conference re-matches only avoided through rounds 1 & 2
*These predictions will not reflected in trojansc's record unless they are all correct
*denotes at-large selection
Notes below, please avoid quoting entire original post.
*Conference re-matches only avoided through rounds 1 & 2
*These predictions will not reflected in trojansc's record unless they are all correct
*denotes at-large selection
(1) Wisconsin vs. (Winner of Bowling Green vs. Weber State)
(16) Utah* vs. (Winner of Baylor* vs. Rider)
(8) Florida* vs. (Winner of San Diego* vs. Samford)
(9) BYU vs. (Winner of Notre Dame* vs. Morehead State)
Region 4
(4) Washington vs. (Winner of Dayton vs. High Point)
(13) Purdue* vs. (Winner of Pepperdine* vs. Jackson State)
(5) Minnesota* vs. (Winner of Texas State vs. Utah Valley)
(12) Washington State* vs. (Winner of Pittsburgh* vs. North Carolina A&T)
Region 3
(3) Texas vs. (Winner of UNLV vs. Lipscomb)
(14) UCLA* vs. (Winner of Creighton vs. UMBC)
(6) Nebraska* vs. (Winner of Missouri* vs. Texas A&M Corpus-Christi)
(11) Louisville vs. (Winner of Penn State* vs. Army)
Region 2
(2) Kentucky vs. (Winner of Wright State vs. Illinois State)
(15) Western Kentucky vs. (Winner of UCF vs. Long Island-Brooklyn)
(7) Oregon* vs. (Winner of Florida State* vs. South Dakota)
(10) Ohio State* vs. (Winner of Rice* vs. Towson)
LAST 4 IN: Penn State, Florida State, San Diego, Missouri
FIRST 4 OUT: Georgia Tech, Marquette, Kansas State, Tennessee
NEXT 5 OUT: Southern California, Arizona, Arkansas, South Carolina, Illinois
Rationale/Comments/Discussion:
Seeds
I think the Top 5 should be agreed upon, even if you move one up or down. Wisconsin is undefeated B1G Champion with a Minnesota win, even as weird as that match was, I think it's the difference maker. I still think Kentucky/Texas can go either way. One might switch Washington and Minnesota as well - but I like the PAC Champion to be slightly ahead of them.
I do think Nebraska comes in at #6, but this is where it starts to get murky. I like Oregon at 7 despite the recent ASU loss, they have good wins. Florida has the big win against Kentucky and did not lose this Spring. I do think the fall results matter - but I do think in close arguments/toss-up situations, how you play as of late is considered more. I think Florida gets the benefit of the doubt and still eeks out a Top 10 seed. 8 might be their ceiling.
I think BYU also gets respect as the WCC Champion. Ohio State is tough to seed, they lost to Purdue twice and split with Nebraska. They are light on wins - but their losses are nothing to complain about. Purdue might have been closer to be right next to OSU, but got ding'd a little for that Illinois loss today. Louisville was also unbeaten this spring, but I see them as variable as well. Would not be stunned to see them anywhere from 8-16.
Wazzu might end up closer to Oregon, but the separation is really the Washington win for Oregon. Unfortunate it got cancelled for Wazzu, we'll never know. Western Kentucky finally has a semi-significant win over Rice. It might not be that great, but at 21-0 and a seeded team last year, I think they squeeze into the discussion.
I decided last minute to swap #16 Utah and #17 Baylor. I originally had Baylor as the seed. I liked UCLA better than Utah with the Oregon and Washington wins, UCLA's losses to CU/USC might not be *that* bad, depends on how the committee views them. I'm not sure Baylor should be above Utah, but I think the committee will give it serious considerations. Baylor just doesn't have anything to put them in there. Yes, they won at Rice, but losses to Texas State and Kansas matter, and they got 4 cracks against Texas, and didn't do it. Not seeing it. The difference between #16 and #17 is marginal - they are going to play eachother no matter what.
At-Larges
The 11 easy ones: Minnesota, Nebraska, Oregon, Florida, Ohio State, Washington State, Purdue, UCLA, Utah, Baylor, Pepperdine.
It gets a little harder after that.
I think Pittsburgh and Notre Dame are in. Both beat Louisville, Pitt has clearly been better this Spring so the 'Cuse losses will likely be forgiven, and they split with each other. That gets us to 13.
Of all the rest, I put Rice and Penn State next in. The reason why, is they each have 1 thing the other bubble teams don't. Rice has a HUGE win AT Texas. Nobody else comes close to that. Penn State however, doesn't have a bad loss, so combine that with the Purdue win, I think they're in.
With three spots left, I came down to this grouping:
Florida State
Missouri
San Diego
Georgia Tech
Marquette
The teams I eliminated at this point, but warranted possible discussion were: Kansas State, Tennessee, Arizona, and Southern California. Arkansas, Illinois and South Carolina round out the 'Next 5 Out' category.
So of the 5 above, the one that I decided I just couldn't leave out was actually Florida State. They were the only team to beat UCF this season, and also beat Notre Dame. The two losses they took this spring were not bad either.
I simply didn't know how to differentiate between these last 4. I think the committee probably had a tough time too, and they may have even included K State in this grouping, though I don't see them just slightly out of this range.
I looked at San Diego, Marquette, Georgia Tech, and Mizzou over and over again and could find legitimate reasons the committee would put any of them in -- and reasons to keep all of them out. I have no separating measures at this point. San Diego lost to LMU, Georgia Tech to Miami-FL, Marquette to Butler, and Missouri to South Carolina/Tennessee. While Mizzou's losses are probably not as bad as the others, they don't have a win as good as the others. So, that doesn't help. Georgia Tech's two wins over FSU are forever ago, does that matter? Marquette's lone win at Creighton, is that good enough? Mizzou didn't beat anybody really, and San Diego *might* have the best win against Pepperdine, but will the committee see it that way? Does the committee give Marquette credit for beating the MVC Champion, Illinois State? Or do they dock them for losing to Illinois State?
The people need Bracketology to be done already -- so I had to make a decision. San Diego and Missouri are the winners. This might be based more on precedence and the SEC not getting 2 vs. 5 ACC, along with San Diego's recent dominance than anything else, but if that's the case, Marquette just might sneak in as well. Georgia Tech is probably going to be p*ssed, again, if they get passed over YET AGAIN by teams below them in the standings, that they beat. I don't like leaving Florida State out of the field, so it will be very interesting to see what happens with the committee. I don't like Missouri -- the two losses at Tennessee are striking and I'm not sure Tennessee shouldn't get consideration in that case - they beat Mizzou twice! It will be interesting to see who the committee lists as last 4 in / first 4 out, but I believe these 4 teams should be among that grouping, no matter what.
