Washington 2022

[alwayslearning]

Ok folks, I figure it's time to start a 2022 thread while the tournament is still going and we still have people participating on the forum. Here is my preview/analysis of where the Huskies might be headed in 2022:

Overview

Four special returning players should form the core of the team in 2022: Powell, Hoffman, Grote, and Bays. The first three received All-American honors in 2021 and Bays looks like she’s on track to be an AA before she leaves. If each of these players can improve just a little, and assuming they stay healthy, UW should be in the thick of the race for a conference title and a good tournament run.

I expect UW’s team identity will be similar to that of the recent past: excellent serving with a high aces-to-errors ratio; strong blocking; and a low-error offense. Areas that can be improved are overall floor defense and serve receive, though the team made good strides on the latter in 2021. It remains to be seen just how explosive the offense will be with Sam Drechsel departing, which leads us to . . .


Offense

Serving

Four excellent servers return: Hoffman (.46 SA per set in conference); Powell (.32); Bays (.22); and Crenshaw (.19). Houghton is also dependable. I would love to see each of these players improve on these stats. Cook & Co. should also make it a priority to develop a serving specialist/DS who can go on runs from the service line. In addition to Houghton, candidates include Wilmes, Mikkelsen, Griffin, Morin, and Wilson. Perhaps even one of UW’s middles could develop a killer serve.

Serve Receive

Hoffman, Bays, and Crenshaw all bring substantial experience to SR. After that, we have real question marks and real opportunities for players like Wilmes, Houghton, Mikkelsen, Griffin, Morin, and Wilson. I am assuming that Bush will likely be starting on the front row, so you will almost certainly need a server/backrow defender to sub in for her. You can never have enough good receivers who can also dig and pass. Let’s hope there is some real competition among this latter group because they are unlikely to see playing time unless they prove themselves at these skills.

Pin Hitters

Claire Hoffman will likely remain the indispensable glue on this team (along with Powell) and is poised to have a great “super senior” season. Let’s hope she avoids what happened to Courtney Schwan, a similarly crafty hitter who, after winning the Pac 12 Player of the Year honors her junior season, had a disappointing senior season.

The other two pin hitter positions – OPP and OH2 – will be a battle between Bush, Endsley, and Hoffman, with Wilmes and Cole (if she returns) the unproven question marks. I give Bush the edge to replace Drechsel at OPP. While I have been somewhat critical of Bush’s propensity for errors, I believe she has the highest ceiling of UW’s current pin hitters, and might be the only true “hammer” on the team (Endsley might give her a run for the money, though). At first glance, Bush’s first year stats are not all that impressive -- .182 and .71 blocks per set in conference (the BPS number is outstanding). For perspective, however, consider the in-conference stats of the following recent Husky standouts during their first seasons:

Sam Drechsel (Maryland) at .161 and .52 in the Big 10
Madi Endsley at .206 and .53 (last spring’s AVCA Pacific North Region Freshman of the Year)
Courtney Schwan at .248 and .70 (limited playing time in 2014)

And consider the in-conference first year stats of recent Pac 12 standouts:

Sami Francis (Stanford OH; Pac 12 All Freshman Team) at .197 and .55
Pak Stubbe (Arizona OH; Pac 12 All Freshman Team) at .237 and .47
Sofia Maldonado Diaz (Arizona OH; last season’s Pac 12 Freshman of the Year) at .212 and .36

If Bush can hit .250 or above at OPP and maintain or improve her blocking numbers, I think Cook will be happy. I think this is possible through just natural development and the fact she will likely see more in system sets at OPP. Her blocking numbers might improve simply because she would see more attempts from opposing left-side hitters. By the time Emoni is a third and fourth-year player, she could be one of the elite hitters and blockers in the conference, if not the nation.

The OH2 position is up for grabs and Cook should go with the best terminator and/or keep his options open depending on who has the hot hand. If Hoffman can maintain a hitting percentage of close to .300, an OH2 who hits in the .230 to .260 range would make for a solid combo. More than anything, we need consistency here. Can Madi recover the form that saw her get 16k and hit .333 against Pitt in the Elite 8 last spring? Can Shannon consistently hit for average and play six rotations? May the best woman win.

Middles

The Huskies should be in good shape here as long as Grote and Summers remain injury-free. With a very green Elise Hani as the only other true middle, things could get dicey with an injury. UW will certainly miss the blocking of Lauren Sanders, but I don’t think there will be much of a drop-off in overall play with Summers. While Sophie did not play a lot of sets (15 in conference), she hit .440 with .47 blocks per set. Sanders hit .196 with 1.26 BPS in conference. Summers is a better offensive option right now and should give UW a good quick option in front of or behind the setter, while Grote excels on the slide. I think Summers is also quicker than Sanders and likely a better floor defender. Assuming Grote maintains or improves her current form, I would be surprised if UW does not have a truly formidable middle tandem by the end of the season.

Setting

Not much to worry about here. If Powell is injured, Mikkelsen and/or Wilson will be thrown into the frying pan.


Defense

Blocking

Summers will need to work hard on this aspect of her game. Grote should just get better. Bush will be a force if she wins a starting job and Powell is an excellent blocking setter (better BPS than Drechsel in conference matches!). Hoffman is a decent blocker and Crenshaw and Endsley will need to work on this aspect.

Digging/Passing

Bays and Powell provide the foundation and are among the best at their position, though Bays can and should improve. Hoffman and Crenshaw provide experience but neither are likely to rise to the level of an elite level defender. After this, it gets sketchy: no one else really has shown great passing/ball handling/digging skills but we really know very little about players like Wilmes, Mikkelsen, Griffin, Morin, and Wilson. Just based on observations of Wilmes receiving serves during warm-ups at recent Husky home games, I’m not sure she’s ready to be inserted as either a 6-ro player or back row defender. I’d love to be proven wrong. If UW wants to compete with the best, Cook & Co. need to develop back row players who can keep rallies going against the likes of Texas.

New pieces?

The Huskies’ pursuit of Devin K this fall showed that they had a plan for extending a new scholarship in 2022. None of us knows how that would work but I think we can safely assume that, for the right player in the transfer portal, Cook & Co. would be willing to make a move. The jackpot, of course, would be a talented 6-rotation OH or a big-time OPP. A consolation could be a MB who can provide depth or an experienced libero/DS who can step in and receive serve at high level and play backcourt D.

[greatlakesvballer]

Nice work!

[alwayslearning]

I've got one more comparison that might make UW fans feel better about the chances of Bush and Endsley to become big, critical parts of the offense going forward. In her freshman year, Claire Hoffman, now a two-time All-American, played 43 sets in the Pac 12 (Bush played 49 conference sets this year and Endsley 40) and hit .150 with .28 blocks per set.

Now we Husky fans tend to think of Claire as one of the most efficient, smart left side hitters in recent Husky history (and she is!), but those first season numbers don't exactly overwhelm. The transition to college ball is just really hard and only the best of the best hit above, say, .240 or .250 as a true freshman left side hitter. We can justifiably expect better hitting/blocking from players like Bush, Endsley, and Crenshaw next season.

[doublecontact]

thank you for this. cook & co aren't known for developing back row abilities though? I don't see how they can take the back row defense to the next level without some crucial changes to coaching?

[alwayslearning]

Dec 16, 2021 15:54:22 GMT -5 doublecontact said:

thank you for this. cook & co aren't known for developing back row abilities though? I don't see how they can take the back row defense to the next level without some crucial changes to coaching?

Not sure what you mean by "crucial changes to coaching." I think Cook is well aware of the team's defensive deficiencies and repeatedly emphasized the importance of playing very high level team defense this season. And, indeed, we have seen the team perform at a high level in spurts -- just not consistently. We might agree that if UW played Nebraska-level floor defense, we might very well be playing later today. That should be the goal, but let's face it -- Nebraska likely has the best floor defense in the country.

Personally, I don't think coaching changes are needed. I think the changes start with who UW recruits and I think maybe that has started to change with the recruitment of Lauren Bays. Championship teams need elite liberos and they need elite back row defenders. Playing Claire Hoffman and Sam Drechsel in the back row is a compromise -- they are relatively slow, big defenders who will never be elite diggers/passers/defenders. They are actually pretty darn good, all things considered, but it is still a compromise. Teams like Wisconsin and Nebraska are able to play a variety of players in the back row who are superb servers and can dig all day long. That should be the goal; the question is whether Cook can consistently recruit this caliber of player.

[doublecontact]

Dec 16, 2021 16:46:42 GMT -5 alwayslearning said:

Dec 16, 2021 15:54:22 GMT -5 doublecontact said:

thank you for this. cook & co aren't known for developing back row abilities though? I don't see how they can take the back row defense to the next level without some crucial changes to coaching?

Not sure what you mean by "crucial changes to coaching." I think Cook is well aware of the team's defensive deficiencies and repeatedly emphasized the importance of playing very high level team defense this season. And, indeed, we have seen the team perform at a high level in spurts -- just not consistently. We might agree that if UW played Nebraska-level floor defense, we might very well be playing later today. That should be the goal, but let's face it -- Nebraska likely has the best floor defense in the country.

Personally, I don't think coaching changes are needed. I think the changes start with who UW recruits and I think maybe that has started to change with the recruitment of Lauren Bays. Championship teams need elite liberos and they need elite back row defenders. Playing Claire Hoffman and Sam Drechsel in the back row is a compromise -- they are relatively slow, big defenders who will never be elite diggers/passers/defenders. They are actually pretty darn good, all things considered, but it is still a compromise. Teams like Wisconsin and Nebraska are able to play a variety of players in the back row who are superb servers and can dig all day long. That should be the goal; the question is whether Cook can consistently recruit this caliber of player.

Sounds like it’s about what kind of players you get in the first place but couldn’t you possibly narrow the gap with good defensive coaching at the college level?

[pbmu]

thanks for getting this up!

[ilikecorn]

Go Dawgs!

[alwayslearning]

Dec 16, 2021 17:12:21 GMT -5 doublecontact said:

Dec 16, 2021 16:46:42 GMT -5 alwayslearning said:

Not sure what you mean by "crucial changes to coaching." I think Cook is well aware of the team's defensive deficiencies and repeatedly emphasized the importance of playing very high level team defense this season. And, indeed, we have seen the team perform at a high level in spurts -- just not consistently. We might agree that if UW played Nebraska-level floor defense, we might very well be playing later today. That should be the goal, but let's face it -- Nebraska likely has the best floor defense in the country.

Personally, I don't think coaching changes are needed. I think the changes start with who UW recruits and I think maybe that has started to change with the recruitment of Lauren Bays. Championship teams need elite liberos and they need elite back row defenders. Playing Claire Hoffman and Sam Drechsel in the back row is a compromise -- they are relatively slow, big defenders who will never be elite diggers/passers/defenders. They are actually pretty darn good, all things considered, but it is still a compromise. Teams like Wisconsin and Nebraska are able to play a variety of players in the back row who are superb servers and can dig all day long. That should be the goal; the question is whether Cook can consistently recruit this caliber of player.

Sounds like it’s about what kind of players you get in the first place but couldn’t you possibly narrow the gap with good defensive coaching at the college level?

Well, sure, good coaching will always narrow the gap. But I'm not ready to conclude that UW is suffering from less-than-good defensive coaching. The evidence suggests to me that UW is especially good at developing players that are not as highly ranked coming out of high school when compared to some schools that are able to attract these types of players. Maybe we see that impact more with hitting and blocking vs floor defense. I do agree that UW has generally not been known as an elite floor defense team in recent years; maybe those with longer memories than mine can recall a time when we were consistently better at this aspect of the game.

[pbmu]

Dec 16, 2021 16:46:42 GMT -5 alwayslearning said:

Dec 16, 2021 15:54:22 GMT -5 doublecontact said:

thank you for this. cook & co aren't known for developing back row abilities though? I don't see how they can take the back row defense to the next level without some crucial changes to coaching?

Not sure what you mean by "crucial changes to coaching." I think Cook is well aware of the team's defensive deficiencies and repeatedly emphasized the importance of playing very high level team defense this season. And, indeed, we have seen the team perform at a high level in spurts -- just not consistently. We might agree that if UW played Nebraska-level floor defense, we might very well be playing later today. That should be the goal, but let's face it -- Nebraska likely has the best floor defense in the country.

Personally, I don't think coaching changes are needed. I think the changes start with who UW recruits and I think maybe that has started to change with the recruitment of Lauren Bays. Championship teams need elite liberos and they need elite back row defenders. Playing Claire Hoffman and Sam Drechsel in the back row is a compromise -- they are relatively slow, big defenders who will never be elite diggers/passers/defenders. They are actually pretty darn good, all things considered, but it is still a compromise. Teams like Wisconsin and Nebraska are able to play a variety of players in the back row who are superb servers and can dig all day long. That should be the goal; the question is whether Cook can consistently recruit this caliber of player.

I noticed they added Justice McGraw to their coaching team in the last games of the conference and traveled with the team to Texas. I'm not sure if she's a volunteer assistant or what her role is but she was a DS for UW a few years ago. She wasn't an elite defender if I recall correctly so I'm curious what coaching she is providing.

[doublecontact]

Dec 16, 2021 18:36:41 GMT -5 pbmu said:

thanks for getting this up!

seconded; love your analyses

[pbmu]

Hoping we go after Fields! She’s following EMP and Summers but they’ve been since their USA junior days.

Also for 2022 Rubright is recently being followed by multiple UW players

[robvolley]

Dec 16, 2021 18:44:54 GMT -5 pbmu said:

Dec 16, 2021 16:46:42 GMT -5 alwayslearning said:

Not sure what you mean by "crucial changes to coaching." I think Cook is well aware of the team's defensive deficiencies and repeatedly emphasized the importance of playing very high level team defense this season. And, indeed, we have seen the team perform at a high level in spurts -- just not consistently. We might agree that if UW played Nebraska-level floor defense, we might very well be playing later today. That should be the goal, but let's face it -- Nebraska likely has the best floor defense in the country.

Personally, I don't think coaching changes are needed. I think the changes start with who UW recruits and I think maybe that has started to change with the recruitment of Lauren Bays. Championship teams need elite liberos and they need elite back row defenders. Playing Claire Hoffman and Sam Drechsel in the back row is a compromise -- they are relatively slow, big defenders who will never be elite diggers/passers/defenders. They are actually pretty darn good, all things considered, but it is still a compromise. Teams like Wisconsin and Nebraska are able to play a variety of players in the back row who are superb servers and can dig all day long. That should be the goal; the question is whether Cook can consistently recruit this caliber of player.

I noticed they added Justice McGraw to their coaching team in the last games of the conference and traveled with the team to Texas. I'm not sure if she's a volunteer assistant or what her role is but she was a DS for UW a few years ago. She wasn't an elite defender if I recall correctly so I'm curious what coaching she is providing.

I think she's been around if I remember correctly after she graduated she was getting the call on live stream games, coaching a local club team, and was kind of like the team social media manager at one point? So not necessarily new to coming back to the program and helping out.

[tomclen]

Dec 17, 2021 17:43:45 GMT -5 robvolley said:

Dec 16, 2021 18:44:54 GMT -5 pbmu said:

I noticed they added Justice McGraw to their coaching team in the last games of the conference and traveled with the team to Texas. I'm not sure if she's a volunteer assistant or what her role is but she was a DS for UW a few years ago. She wasn't an elite defender if I recall correctly so I'm curious what coaching she is providing.

I think she's been around if I remember correctly after she graduated she was getting the call on live stream games, coaching a local club team, and was kind of like the team social media manager at one point? So not necessarily new to coming back to the program and helping out.

I remember back when they threw her into those UW match web-streams from HecEd. She was solo usually, no side-kick.

I actually thought she was pretty good. A really different take on the matches.

[luckydawg]

Dec 16, 2021 18:44:54 GMT -5 pbmu said:

Dec 16, 2021 16:46:42 GMT -5 alwayslearning said:

Not sure what you mean by "crucial changes to coaching." I think Cook is well aware of the team's defensive deficiencies and repeatedly emphasized the importance of playing very high level team defense this season. And, indeed, we have seen the team perform at a high level in spurts -- just not consistently. We might agree that if UW played Nebraska-level floor defense, we might very well be playing later today. That should be the goal, but let's face it -- Nebraska likely has the best floor defense in the country.

Personally, I don't think coaching changes are needed. I think the changes start with who UW recruits and I think maybe that has started to change with the recruitment of Lauren Bays. Championship teams need elite liberos and they need elite back row defenders. Playing Claire Hoffman and Sam Drechsel in the back row is a compromise -- they are relatively slow, big defenders who will never be elite diggers/passers/defenders. They are actually pretty darn good, all things considered, but it is still a compromise. Teams like Wisconsin and Nebraska are able to play a variety of players in the back row who are superb servers and can dig all day long. That should be the goal; the question is whether Cook can consistently recruit this caliber of player.

I noticed they added Justice McGraw to their coaching team in the last games of the conference and traveled with the team to Texas. I'm not sure if she's a volunteer assistant or what her role is but she was a DS for UW a few years ago. She wasn't an elite defender if I recall correctly so I'm curious what coaching she is providing.

I believe Justice has been a volunteer assistant all season, but not full time due to other commitments. Previously had the same role at Portland State.