2022 FIVB World Championship

[trojansc]

Jul 17, 2022 22:24:33 GMT -5 avid 2.0 said:

A: Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, Puerto Rico
B: Turkey, Dominican, Thailand, Poland
C: Serbia, USA, Germany, Canada
D: China, Japan, Brazil, Colombia

E: Italy, China, Japan, Brazil
F: Serbia, USA, Turkey, Dominican

The fight between Dom and Thailand will be close. (maybe Poland too with Stysiak)
D is going to be a mess.

I wonder if Turkey can fudge up enough to miss the Quarterfinals. We are all penciling in USA/SRB as a Semifinal match, right?

also, me calculating the potential number of 5-setters that will be played between the messy Pool B (and combined F pool):

[trojansc]

Jul 18, 2022 0:11:07 GMT -5 avid 2.0 said:

Cameroon said their goal is to be 4th in pool over PR and Kenya lol

Have you seen any play from Cameroon lately?

I mean, they certainly were trending up and I would love to see it. Let's see what Puerto Rico does at the Challenger Cup. I have to imagine they can get it together enough to at least find a way to beat Cameroon.

[Deleted]

Jul 17, 2022 22:24:33 GMT -5 avid 2.0 said:

A: Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, Puerto Rico
B: Turkey, Dominican, Thailand, Poland
C: Serbia, USA, Germany, Canada
D: China, Japan, Brazil, Colombia

E: Italy, China, Japan, Brazil
F: Serbia, USA, Turkey, Dominican

The fight between Dom and Thailand will be close. (maybe Poland too with Stysiak)
D is going to be a mess.

you have serbia over the usa ? Change of heart ?

[CAI BIN MUST GO]

Jul 18, 2022 0:02:59 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Jul 17, 2022 22:14:13 GMT -5 CAI BIN MUST GO said:

fun fact: if KOR barely qualifies for the 2nd stage (say they are 4th in group), facing USA SRB GER CAN (possible top 4 in other group) could tank their rankings and actually pull them out of the OQTs (as opposed to crashing out in the first stage)

Thanks FIVB for a ranking that makes zero sense. Again.

I disagree with the ranking system making zero sense. The rankings are the best they've ever been and I think they will continue to be more accurate than the past, except that when teams don't send full strength rosters to events like the VNL, it can make things out of whack, but, no ranking system is going to account for teams/key players taking tournaments 'off'. I don't think this is the best possible ranking system ever, but, to act like it's highly flawed or even close to as bad as previous systems, I disagree with that.

As for your example here, Korea went 0 for 12 in the freaking VNL against many NT's who weren't playing at full strength. Whether they get knocked out in the 1st or 2nd round, it's irrelevant to me and I feel no sympathy towards them not making the OQTs. Korea was a FULL 4 games worse than any other team at the VNL. They were 3-36 in sets. 

I actually like that the ranking system exposed Korea very quickly. Yes, they were a team who is borderline top 10 with KYK (or with KYK and the twins for argument sakes). They have lost all those players and we see that is not the same team, nor will they probably be in the immediate future. They shouldn't be ranking above the other VNL teams they fell behind.

What WOULD help the ranking system: If Korea was actually relegated in the VNL. Why? They would play matches against Colombia and Puerto Rico (who are right above them in rankings). Then Korea would have chance to win back points against the lower level of competition. We could also measure whether they are indeed worse than those teams (it might be closer than one would think). Instead, the dumb challenger system means Belgium has to play in it.     

(sorry if you got notified twice, the system ate my first response so i had to re-type it)

The new ranking system is based on individual match results rather than tournament results. We can't say that each match is of equal sporting importance, that is obviously not true. The old ranking accounted for that by only taking into consideration the final result. 

In fact this new ranking system does not reward teams for qualifying to the next stage. For example, argentina got +15 points in the Tokyo 2021 qualifiers but -17 points in the actual games. Does that make sense?

The old ranking system has exposed teams very quickly too. For example, Serbia in 2019 lost most of their 90 ranking points gained from the 2015 World Cup. Now, I understand there were scheduling problems with ECh, but the reality is they sent a B team which was not good and placed 9th. China in 2021 would be the same story if the old ranking system was used. USA in 2018 to a lesser extent.

With the new ranking system, the most important tournament for mid-teams becomes the VNL, because you are guaranteed 12 (used to be 15) matches with a relatively high rating multiplier. If a team plays like KOR did in the WCH or OG, they'd be eliminated after 5 matches and the damage to their ranking limited (see: China who lost only 25/30 points in Tokyo 2021)

I mean the fact that Russia could be qualified to Paris 2024 by ranking (both men and women, but especially the men who are ranked #4) should tell you everything that is wrong with this current system... normally they would get a 0 for the 2022 VNL and 2022 WCH results. FIVB introduced this new ranking system to boost the importance of VNL, not to evaluate the teams more objectively.

edit: forgot to add the following: The olympics is the most important event in volleyball, and even qualifying for it is an accomplishment. Do we really want to leave open the possibility that a borderline team like KOR throws their final group stage game in the WCH to save their ranking points and qualify to the OQTs? Doesn't sound right to me.

Also, what was wrong with the old ranking system, besides teams keeping their points for 4 years?

[CAI BIN MUST GO]

Jul 18, 2022 0:33:16 GMT -5 @madden55 said:

Jul 17, 2022 22:24:33 GMT -5 avid 2.0 said:

A: Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, Puerto Rico
B: Turkey, Dominican, Thailand, Poland
C: Serbia, USA, Germany, Canada
D: China, Japan, Brazil, Colombia

E: Italy, China, Japan, Brazil
F: Serbia, USA, Turkey, Dominican

The fight between Dom and Thailand will be close. (maybe Poland too with Stysiak)
D is going to be a mess.

you have serbia over the usa ? Change of heart ?

he just wants to jinx you

[HandeBallerdın]

Jul 18, 2022 0:15:04 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Jul 17, 2022 22:24:33 GMT -5 avid 2.0 said:

A: Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, Puerto Rico
B: Turkey, Dominican, Thailand, Poland
C: Serbia, USA, Germany, Canada
D: China, Japan, Brazil, Colombia

E: Italy, China, Japan, Brazil
F: Serbia, USA, Turkey, Dominican

The fight between Dom and Thailand will be close. (maybe Poland too with Stysiak)
D is going to be a mess.

I wonder if Turkey can fudge up enough to miss the Quarterfinals. We are all penciling in USA/SRB as a Semifinal match, right?

also, me calculating the potential number of 5-setters that will be played between the messy Pool B (and combined F pool):

Turkey v USA tends to go 5, they seem to play up to our level. Thailand seem like they love going 5 so prob a few of their games

[Deleted]

Jul 18, 2022 0:33:16 GMT -5 @madden55 said:

Jul 17, 2022 22:24:33 GMT -5 avid 2.0 said:

A: Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, Puerto Rico
B: Turkey, Dominican, Thailand, Poland
C: Serbia, USA, Germany, Canada
D: China, Japan, Brazil, Colombia

E: Italy, China, Japan, Brazil
F: Serbia, USA, Turkey, Dominican

The fight between Dom and Thailand will be close. (maybe Poland too with Stysiak)
D is going to be a mess.

you have serbia over the usa ? Change of heart ?

I still think USA has the slight edge but the return of Stevanović and Drca paired with the emergence of Lozo really elevates Serbia. 

Both teams can drastically elevate their level of play which should be fun to watch. 

I think any outcome where these two teams aren't facing each other in the Semi-finals will be an upset at this point.

[Wichsen]

Well, based on VNL performances. It will still be Serbia vs Italy.

[Deleted]

Jul 18, 2022 13:01:52 GMT -5 Wichsen said:

Well, based on VNL performances. It will still be Serbia vs Italy.

Not unless they both lose the semi-finals and play for Bronze or both meet in the Gold medal match. 

USA and CHN/BRA will be their main competition in the semi-finals. 

This tournaments finals structure isn't great.

[Deleted]

Jul 18, 2022 13:04:10 GMT -5 @toddyj said:

Jul 18, 2022 13:01:52 GMT -5 Wichsen said:

Well, based on VNL performances. It will still be Serbia vs Italy.

Not unless they both lose the semi-finals and play for Bronze or both meet in the Gold medal match. 

USA and CHN/BRA will be their main competition in the semi-finals. 

This tournaments finals structure isn't great.

I’m really excited to see what happens when Bošković comes back. It’s almost guaranteed maja will not be with the squad at WC and as much as I love her it might be for the best. Drča has been fantastic and Mirko is so much improved

[avid 2.0]

Jul 18, 2022 13:34:50 GMT -5 @madden55 said:

Jul 18, 2022 13:04:10 GMT -5 @toddyj said:

Not unless they both lose the semi-finals and play for Bronze or both meet in the Gold medal match. 

USA and CHN/BRA will be their main competition in the semi-finals. 

This tournaments finals structure isn't great.

I’m really excited to see what happens when Bošković comes back. It’s almost guaranteed maja will not be with the squad at WC and as much as I love her it might be for the best. Drča has been fantastic and Mirko is so much improved

wait what why 

[Deleted]

Jul 18, 2022 13:35:55 GMT -5 avid 2.0 said:

Jul 18, 2022 13:34:50 GMT -5 @madden55 said:

I’m really excited to see what happens when Bošković comes back. It’s almost guaranteed maja will not be with the squad at WC and as much as I love her it might be for the best. Drča has been fantastic and Mirko is so much improved

wait what why 

interviews about world champs prep. They interviewed Tijana about world championships and not a word about maja and a big focus was on Tijana and Bojana getting to play together and someone close to the program said it’s unlikely that she’ll be with the team there.

[CAI BIN MUST GO]

Jul 18, 2022 13:04:10 GMT -5 @toddyj said:

Jul 18, 2022 13:01:52 GMT -5 Wichsen said:

Well, based on VNL performances. It will still be Serbia vs Italy.

Not unless they both lose the semi-finals and play for Bronze or both meet in the Gold medal match. 

USA and CHN/BRA will be their main competition in the semi-finals. 

This tournaments finals structure isn't great.

those are some awfully nice words.

[trojansc]

Jul 18, 2022 9:33:25 GMT -5 CAI BIN MUST GO said:

The new ranking system is based on individual match results rather than tournament results. We can't say that each match is of equal sporting importance, that is obviously not true. The old ranking accounted for that by only taking into consideration the final result. 

In fact this new ranking system does not reward teams for qualifying to the next stage. For example, argentina got +15 points in the Tokyo 2021 qualifiers but -17 points in the actual games. Does that make sense?

The old ranking system has exposed teams very quickly too. For example, Serbia in 2019 lost most of their 90 ranking points gained from the 2015 World Cup. Now, I understand there were scheduling problems with ECh, but the reality is they sent a B team which was not good and placed 9th. China in 2021 would be the same story if the old ranking system was used. USA in 2018 to a lesser extent.

With the new ranking system, the most important tournament for mid-teams becomes the VNL, because you are guaranteed 12 (used to be 15) matches with a relatively high rating multiplier. If a team plays like KOR did in the WCH or OG, they'd be eliminated after 5 matches and the damage to their ranking limited (see: China who lost only 25/30 points in Tokyo 2021)

I mean the fact that Russia could be qualified to Paris 2024 by ranking (both men and women, but especially the men who are ranked #4) should tell you everything that is wrong with this current system... normally they would get a 0 for the 2022 VNL and 2022 WCH results. FIVB introduced this new ranking system to boost the importance of VNL, not to evaluate the teams more objectively.

edit: forgot to add the following: The olympics is the most important event in volleyball, and even qualifying for it is an accomplishment. Do we really want to leave open the possibility that a borderline team like KOR throws their final group stage game in the WCH to save their ranking points and qualify to the OQTs? Doesn't sound right to me.

Also, what was wrong with the old ranking system, besides teams keeping their points for 4 years?

The problem with 'only' allowing the final result to matter is that not all paths are created equal and there are unbalanced routes. At least with unbalanced pools, the rankings will address that by not penalizing you as many points for losing to good teams as you would have in only taking the final result.

I also disagree, it actually makes plenty of sense for Argentina. Why do we care about rewarding them for qualifying to Tokyo through a week CSV pool? I also do think teams should be penalized for not taking the VNL seriously. I don't mind the FIVB making the result of matches matter more. I could be negotiable on the 'weight' of the VNL though.

Russia is an extreme outlier and shouldn't measure anything. In the old system Korea gets more points than Russia for simply attending the event. Korea doesn't deserve ANY points for just 'being' in the VNL.

Your hypothetical scenario with Korea is really irrelevant. Korea is not making any Olympic Game through International Qualification. It's very very hard to see Korea even winning two games in their pool, so, they won't even need to throw it. And if they get swept enough -- that should probably keep them out anyways by losing the 1st round matches.

I think I've already touched on your last question. But to add one more example, the ranking system with the World Cup was also really awful. Teams like Argentina, Korea, Dominican Republic got to get a LOT of quality World Cup points while teams like Italy, Turkey had to miss the World Cup and got literally zero points. That's very dumb. Those second-rate teams got points for beating each other and for beating Cameroon/Kenya while Europe/CEV was 'quota'd' out of the tournament.

[trojansc]

In the old system:

USA and Thailand get the *exact* same amount of points for the VNL.
USA went 11-2
Thailand went 5-8

That's.... dumb.