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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2023 12:27:03 GMT -5
also important is who you face in VNL 2024. Imagine getting to face a Serbia B team who already qualified to the Olympics. lots of chances for big ranking points there |
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on Sept 16, 2023 12:29:08 GMT -5
looking at history (2023 VNL),
Canada: 210.49 -> 240.26 (+29.77)
Dom. Rep: 261.95 -> 269.41 (+7.46) (thanks to wins over China and Serbia, which was +20)
Netherlands: 242.26 -> 258.44 (+16.18)
I don't think DR will be so lucky in VNL 2024. I would say if Canada and DR play like they did in VNL, then Canada has a good chance.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Sept 16, 2023 12:29:25 GMT -5
Can someone tell me what are Canada's chances of qualifying through ranking points rn? Give me the scenario run down cause isn't being 28 points behind DOM really bad? The most likely scenario: The top 10 teams in world ranking make the Olympics. That'd mean Dominicana is last team in, Canada first team out as things stand now, with Netherlands making it being barely above DOM right now. Japan and Poland would really surprise me if they had an awful IOQT+VNL to fall out of world ranking qualification. Canada's chances skyrocket with a win tonight not only because they would gain points, DR would lose points, but on top of all that, Canada could hope they can steal a match from SRB/CHN and qualify directly here. Here are the estimated point scenarios for the results tonight: DOM 3-0: +/- 7.381 DOM 3-1: +/- 5.194 DOM 3-2: +/- 3.006 CAN 3-2: +/- 5.774 CAN 3-1: +/- 7.931 CAN 3-0: +/- 10.119 So, at the end of tonight's match, the distance between DOM-CAN could be as much as DOM being 42 points ahead, or as close as DOM being just 8 points ahead, or somewhere inbetween. Canada is very much in this. It's Germany/Belgium who really have such little room for error to make a run, and they're running out of time. I can go back and see how DOM/CAN/NED did at 2023 VNL and calculate their net points lost/gained, and that could give us a guide on what to expect for how VNL 2024 will impact world rankings. |
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on Sept 16, 2023 12:30:06 GMT -5
also important is who you face in VNL 2024. Imagine getting to face a Serbia B team who already qualified to the Olympics. lots of chances for big ranking points there undeserved ranking points.
The last qualification spots should be played out directly, and the teams who already qualified should not be allowed to influence who gets in.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2023 12:31:37 GMT -5
lots of chances for big ranking points there undeserved ranking points.
The last qualification spots should be played out directly, and the teams who already qualified should not be allowed to influence who gets in.
true. |
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on Sept 16, 2023 12:32:37 GMT -5
Can someone tell me what are Canada's chances of qualifying through ranking points rn? Give me the scenario run down cause isn't being 28 points behind DOM really bad? The most likely scenario: The top 10 teams in world ranking make the Olympics. That'd mean Dominicana is last team in, Canada first team out as things stand now, with Netherlands making it being barely above DOM right now. Japan and Poland would really surprise me if they had an awful IOQT+VNL to fall out of world ranking qualification. Canada's chances skyrocket with a win tonight not only because they would gain points, DR would lose points, but on top of all that, Canada could hope they can steal a match from SRB/CHN and qualify directly here. Here are the estimated point scenarios for the results tonight: DOM 3-0: +/- 7.381 DOM 3-1: +/- 5.194 DOM 3-2: +/- 3.006 CAN 3-2: +/- 5.774 CAN 3-1: +/- 7.931 CAN 3-0: +/- 10.119 So, at the end of tonight's match, the distance between DOM-CAN could be as much as DOM being 42 points ahead, or as close as DOM being just 8 points ahead, or somewhere inbetween. Canada is very much in this. It's Germany/Belgium who really have such little room for error to make a run, and they're running out of time.
I can go back and see how DOM/CAN/NED did at 2023 VNL and calculate their net points lost/gained, and that could give us a guide on what to expect for how VNL 2024 will impact world rankings.lol i did this right before your post
however, i should add, that canada was starting from 210 and DR was starting from 260, so the results are gonna be biased in favor of canada.
now that they are closer together in ranking, perhaps with similar results, canada would not gain so much. Still, direct encounters count for double. And you would really really really want to face a top team that already qualified and is playing their B team.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Sept 16, 2023 12:33:35 GMT -5
looking at history (2023 VNL), Canada: 210.49 -> 240.26 (+29.77) Dom. Rep: 261.95 -> 269.41 (+7.46) (thanks to wins over China and Serbia, which was +20) Netherlands: 242.26 -> 258.44 (+16.18) I don't think DR will be so lucky in VNL 2024. I would say if Canada and DR play like they did in VNL, then Canada has a good chance. I actually thought DR was *unlucky* in VNL 2023. They got a tougher schedule than others and with a higher ranking starting point, they had more to lose. Canada got a win over Serbia while they were still not playing with their main roster, which DR had to face in the last week. DR also beat Canada in the VNL. |
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Sept 16, 2023 12:34:57 GMT -5
lol i did this right before your post however, i should add, that canada was starting from 210 and DR was starting from 260, so the results are gonna be biased in favor of canada. now that they are closer together in ranking, perhaps with similar results, canada would not gain so much. Still, direct encounters count for double. And you would really really really want to face a top team that already qualified and is playing their B team. LOL we are funny. I just responded with similar sentiments re: starting point. I'm glad that NED/CAN/DOM are facing each other here so that they can get even more H2H matches (who knows, maybe they WON'T face each other in VNL the way things work). It's gonna be dumb with unbalanced schedules if that ends up costing someone. Germany REALLY lucked out last VNL. |
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on Sept 16, 2023 12:37:08 GMT -5
looking at history (2023 VNL), Canada: 210.49 -> 240.26 (+29.77) Dom. Rep: 261.95 -> 269.41 (+7.46) (thanks to wins over China and Serbia, which was +20) Netherlands: 242.26 -> 258.44 (+16.18) I don't think DR will be so lucky in VNL 2024. I would say if Canada and DR play like they did in VNL, then Canada has a good chance. I actually thought DR was *unlucky* in VNL 2023. They got a tougher schedule than others and with a higher ranking starting point, they had more to lose. Canada got a win over Serbia while they were still not playing with their main roster, which DR had to face in the last week. DR also beat Canada in the VNL. yeah that's fair. I just don't think the chance for those wins to be repeated is high. And DR does have a good H2H score against Canada in recent times.
however I do not think there is a high chance of Canada upsetting one of China or Serbia to take a direct qualification spot in this pool. Probably best they can hope for is China tripping up vs DR/NED and an already qualified Serbia not trolling and playing Boskovic as libero and Maja as outside, then beating China on set ratio.
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on Sept 16, 2023 12:40:32 GMT -5
basically, this is a lot of words for "nobody knows, wait until VNL 2024 to see".
in VNL, among DOM, NED, CAN,
DOM beat CAN and NED, 3-2 each
CAN beat NED, 3-2.
Perhaps everyone is pretty close. Although there are a lot of euro teams, and NED may have some advantage with familiarity.
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Post by sleepy on Sept 16, 2023 12:40:57 GMT -5
Can someone tell me what are Canada's chances of qualifying through ranking points rn? Give me the scenario run down cause isn't being 28 points behind DOM really bad? Nobody knows, because there's an entire VNL 2024 prelim round left. They have a bit of a gap between themselves and germany, but there is also a gap between themselves and DOM.
the game vs DOM in OQT is especially important, because in a certain sense the results count for double: not only can Canada gain points if they win, but also cause DOM to lose the same amount of points.
Ohhh there is still VNL prelim damn. I thought rankings were set after this tourney i see |
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on Sept 16, 2023 12:43:29 GMT -5
undeserved ranking points.
The last qualification spots should be played out directly, and the teams who already qualified should not be allowed to influence who gets in.
true. I don't know how long you have been watching volleyball, but China and Brazil were not allowed to play in 2007/2015 World Cups (Top 3/Top 2 go to Olympics)
This new qualification system is weird and I don't like it.
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Post by newbeach on Sept 16, 2023 13:58:11 GMT -5
looking at history (2023 VNL), Canada: 210.49 -> 240.26 (+29.77) Dom. Rep: 261.95 -> 269.41 (+7.46) (thanks to wins over China and Serbia, which was +20) Netherlands: 242.26 -> 258.44 (+16.18) I don't think DR will be so lucky in VNL 2024. I would say if Canada and DR play like they did in VNL, then Canada has a good chance. I actually thought DR was *unlucky* in VNL 2023. They got a tougher schedule than others and with a higher ranking starting point, they had more to lose. Canada got a win over Serbia while they were still not playing with their main roster, which DR had to face in the last week. DR also beat Canada in the VNL. Canada also did not have KVR against Serbia (or in week 1) and she was definitely not back to form for the VNL though she did get better. She also sustained an injury and was playing on a very badly sprained ankle. IF KVR can return to full form, which I believe she will, that will help Canada a lot. Jost, the libero, was new to international competition at the VNL. She has been improving a lot since then. She is could make a big improvements by 2024 VNL. Canada, unfortunately, still has injuries this tournament. Van Buskirk is out with an injury (I believe she should be MB 2 or at the very least split time). If Canada can get/stay healthy they could be a dangerous. Belgium doesn't have the benefit of the 2024 VNL so they will have to make moves at this tournament. Germany without Orthmann may lose ground and they did have a very favorable 2023 VNL. Canada the Dominicana and Netherlands will be entertaining (if they face each other in 2024). I personally, don't think that they should have to play head-to-head. An argument could be made that rankings are about how you consistently play other teams. |
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Post by bzo on Sept 16, 2023 13:58:34 GMT -5
Here are the estimated point scenarios for the results tonight: DOM 3-0: +/- 7.381 DOM 3-1: +/- 5.194 DOM 3-2: +/- 3.006 CAN 3-2: +/- 5.774 CAN 3-1: +/- 7.931 CAN 3-0: +/- 10.119 Regarding the ranking points for OQT matches: Does anyone know if FIVB has changed (lowered) the match weight factor (MWF) for OQT matches? According to the official documentation the MWF should be 35, same as for the continental championships. But looking at the points for the matches played today at the FIVB ranking page that can't be right. Example: Belgium only got +5.01 pts for beating Bulgaria 3-0. If the MWF was 35 they should have gotten about +7 pts. Another example: Serbia (with 356.82 ranking points before the match) only got +0.91 for beating Mexico (with 152.26 ranking points before the match) 3-0. In Eurovolley Serbia (with 356.4 ranking points then, almost the same) got +1.00 pts for beating Sweden (with 135.03 ranking points then) with 3-0. I.e. they got slightly more ranking points for beating Sweden 3-0 in Eurovolley, than they got for beating Mexico in OQT. Yet Sweden had 17 pts lower ranking than Mexico. That can't be right if OQT and Eurovolley both are supposed to have 35 as MWF. Doing some calculations it looks more like FIVB only has given OQT matches MWF 25 in the matches from today that has been updated on the ranking page. |
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Sept 16, 2023 14:00:24 GMT -5
Here are the estimated point scenarios for the results tonight: DOM 3-0: +/- 7.381 DOM 3-1: +/- 5.194 DOM 3-2: +/- 3.006 CAN 3-2: +/- 5.774 CAN 3-1: +/- 7.931 CAN 3-0: +/- 10.119 Regarding the ranking points for OQT matches: Does anyone know if FIVB has changed (lowered) the match weight factor (MWF) for OQT matches? According to the official documentation the MWF should be 35, same as for the continental championships. But looking at the points for the matches played today at the FIVB ranking page that can't be right. Example: Belgium only got +5.01 pts for beating Bulgaria 3-0. If the MWF was 35 they should have gotten about +7 pts. Another example: Serbia (with 356.82 ranking points before the match) only got +0.91 for beating Mexico (with 152.26 ranking points before the match) 3-0. In Eurovolley Serbia (with 356.4 ranking points then, almost the same) got +1.00 pts for beating Sweden (with 135.03 ranking points then) with 3-0. I.e. they got slightly more ranking points for beating Sweden 3-0 in Eurovolley, than they got for beating Mexico in OQT. Yet Sweden had 17 pts lower ranking than Mexico. That can't be right if OQT and Eurovolley both are supposed to have 35 as MWF. Doing some calculations it looks more like FIVB only has given OQT matches MWF 25 in the matches from today that has been updated on the ranking page. Hmm. I'm not sure. I was using the ranking calculator that avid 2.0 has linked to in order to calculate the scenarios I did, but I'm not sure if that is up to date or if weight has changed? Never know with the FIVB. |
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