Paris Olympic Qualification - China/Japan - Sept 16-24

[trojansc]

Sept 20, 2023 9:21:48 GMT -5 bounce22 said:

Sept 20, 2023 9:11:55 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Good news for Canada - DOM/NED/CHN going 1-1 against each other isn't that unrealistic of a scenario.

I think most simply:

SRB finishes above Canada with any 3-0 win the rest of the way, Serbia needs just one more win and 3 total points to 100% be above Canada (DOM/NED/CHN)
DOM goes 3-0 or 3-1 in two wins and they are 100% above Canada (SRB/CHN/NED)
NED goes 3-1 and 3-2 in two wins and they are 100% above Canada (CHN/SRB/DOM)
CHN goes 3-1 and 3-2 in two wins and they are 100% above Canada (NED/DOM/SRB)

Alternatively, you can make any of those 3-1 or 3-0 wins for DOM/NED/CHN a 3-2 win, and if their one loss is 2-3, that would also be good enough to get them to 15 points (which is what they must need to 100% guarantee themselves above Canada)

Well this is depressing ….. and I after just finished my duck blood soup as well

I mean, Canada 100% qualifies if they win their last 3 matches, Serbia beats CHN/DOM/NED, and CHN/DOM/NED go 1-1 against each other. That guarantees Canada qualification. I wouldn't say that's a terrible position to be in, especially for Canada's expectations.

[trojansc]

This result was really bad for DOM/NED. They would have rather took their risks with not qualifying here, have Canada be 100% out of the running for direct qualification, AND not gain qualification points for world ranking.

Instead, Canada has a shot at qualifying here, which means only 1 of DOM/NED could go to Paris, and they have been neck-and-neck in World Ranking.

Then again, DOM/NED are in a position where if they win their next three matches, they are 100% going to Paris. But, that's a really tough slate, they both get CHN/SRB and then each other.

[bounce22]

Sept 20, 2023 9:26:44 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Sept 20, 2023 9:21:48 GMT -5 bounce22 said:

Well this is depressing ….. and I after just finished my duck blood soup as well

I mean, Canada 100% qualifies if they win their last 3 matches, Serbia beats CHN/DOM/NED, and CHN/DOM/NED go 1-1 against each other. That guarantees Canada qualification. I wouldn't say that's a terrible position to be in, especially for Canada's expectations.

Just hoping our girls don’t come out in one of those matches and barf all over themselves. They can definitely play well enough to win them all I think as long as we can avoid any “beat China” hangover.

[CAI BIN MUST GO]

Sept 20, 2023 9:30:15 GMT -5 trojansc said:

This result was really bad for DOM/NED. They would have rather took their risks with not qualifying here, have Canada be 100% out of the running for direct qualification, AND not gain qualification points for world ranking.

Instead, Canada has a shot at qualifying here, which means only 1 of DOM/NED could go to Paris, and they have been neck-and-neck in World Ranking.

Then again, DOM/NED are in a position where if they win their next three matches, they are 100% going to Paris. But, that's a really tough slate, they both get CHN/SRB and then each other.

winning two would be enough, i think.

[Deleted]

Sept 20, 2023 9:30:15 GMT -5 trojansc said:

This result was really bad for DOM/NED. They would have rather took their risks with not qualifying here, have Canada be 100% out of the running for direct qualification, AND not gain qualification points for world ranking.

Instead, Canada has a shot at qualifying here, which means only 1 of DOM/NED could go to Paris, and they have been neck-and-neck in World Ranking.

Then again, DOM/NED are in a position where if they win their next three matches, they are 100% going to Paris. But, that's a really tough slate, they both get CHN/SRB and then each other.

I really have trouble deciding how good I think China is. I want to say the dutch are better slightly but idk for sure. I could see DR or the dutch going 2-1 tho. with that lost coming to serbia. I am fairly confident that we go undefeated here but we havent looked unstoppable by any means. I do think we havent really kicked it into the high gear that we can tho and thats why I feel confident. Its rather unfortunate that somehow the dutch, DR, and canada are all in the same pool. They coulda caused trouble if spread out

[trojansc]

Sept 20, 2023 9:38:52 GMT -5 CAI BIN MUST GO said:

Sept 20, 2023 9:30:15 GMT -5 trojansc said:

This result was really bad for DOM/NED. They would have rather took their risks with not qualifying here, have Canada be 100% out of the running for direct qualification, AND not gain qualification points for world ranking.

Instead, Canada has a shot at qualifying here, which means only 1 of DOM/NED could go to Paris, and they have been neck-and-neck in World Ranking.

Then again, DOM/NED are in a position where if they win their next three matches, they are 100% going to Paris. But, that's a really tough slate, they both get CHN/SRB and then each other.

winning two would be enough, i think.

It depends on who and in how many sets. DOM isn't exactly in a great position with 9 points either, a point behind CHN/NED.

[CAI BIN MUST GO]

Sept 20, 2023 9:54:09 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Sept 20, 2023 9:38:52 GMT -5 CAI BIN MUST GO said:

winning two would be enough, i think.

It depends on who and in how many sets. DOM isn't exactly in a great position with 9 points either, a point behind CHN/NED.

my bad, i was assuming serbia would sweep everyone.

[Deleted]

Sept 20, 2023 9:56:14 GMT -5 CAI BIN MUST GO said:

Sept 20, 2023 9:54:09 GMT -5 trojansc said:

It depends on who and in how many sets. DOM isn't exactly in a great position with 9 points either, a point behind CHN/NED.

my bad, i was assuming serbia would sweep everyone.

i dont expect to go clean 3-0 over all 3. thats unlikely

[trojansc]

Sept 20, 2023 9:56:14 GMT -5 CAI BIN MUST GO said:

Sept 20, 2023 9:54:09 GMT -5 trojansc said:

It depends on who and in how many sets. DOM isn't exactly in a great position with 9 points either, a point behind CHN/NED.

my bad, i was assuming serbia would sweep everyone.

If Serbia sweeps everyone and DOM beats CHN/NED... it comes down to how many points DOM would have. DOM needs 6 points/2 wins to guarantee itself above Canada.

[Deleted]

omg gray passed 60 percent positive on 50 attempts lol. got blocked 10 times tho oof

[trojansc]

I'm also forseeing a scenario in which DOM/NED could potentially throw their match to the other one in order to prevent Canada from qualifying.

For example, say Netherlands beats China and loses to Serbia, whereas DOM loses to both and is already eliminated. DR could hypothetically just let Netherlands win/qualify and take their chances against Canada in world ranking rather than risk Canada qualifying if DR won that match.

[tamz]

We love some chaos right.

[chatchu-off moksri]

omg Canada!!!

[newbeach]

Sept 20, 2023 10:18:49 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I'm also forseeing a scenario in which DOM/NED could potentially throw their match to the other one in order to prevent Canada from qualifying.

For example, say Netherlands beats China and loses to Serbia, whereas DOM loses to both and is already eliminated. DR could hypothetically just let Netherlands win/qualify and take their chances against Canada in world ranking rather than risk Canada qualifying if DR won that match.

No ... DOM wouldn't do that! Would they? 

[trojansc]

Sept 20, 2023 10:59:04 GMT -5 newbeach said:

Sept 20, 2023 10:18:49 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I'm also forseeing a scenario in which DOM/NED could potentially throw their match to the other one in order to prevent Canada from qualifying.

For example, say Netherlands beats China and loses to Serbia, whereas DOM loses to both and is already eliminated. DR could hypothetically just let Netherlands win/qualify and take their chances against Canada in world ranking rather than risk Canada qualifying if DR won that match.

No ... DOM wouldn't do that! Would they? 

I don't think so. In 2016 qualification - they really should have thrown the match to Puerto Rico. An asinine qualification system basically guaranteed #3 from NORCECA Qualification (Puerto Rico) while the #2 had to go to a fight-for-your-life World Qualifier with the dramatic JPN-THA contest. Puerto Rico never would have made it out there (and Dominicana didn't either).