Paris Olympic Qualification - China/Japan - Sept 16-24

[volleyguy]

Sept 20, 2023 11:00:26 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Sept 20, 2023 10:59:04 GMT -5 newbeach said:

No ... DOM wouldn't do that! Would they? 

I don't think so. In 2016 qualification - they really should have thrown the match to Puerto Rico. An asinine qualification system basically guaranteed #3 from NORCECA Qualification (Puerto Rico) while the #2 had to go to a fight-for-your-life World Qualifier with the dramatic JPN-SRB contest. Puerto Rico never would have made it out there (and Dominicana didn't either).

What would the difference be right now if DOM had not lost to CZE?

[n00b]

Sept 20, 2023 10:18:49 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I'm also forseeing a scenario in which DOM/NED could potentially throw their match to the other one in order to prevent Canada from qualifying.

For example, say Netherlands beats China and loses to Serbia, whereas DOM loses to both and is already eliminated. DR could hypothetically just let Netherlands win/qualify and take their chances against Canada in world ranking rather than risk Canada qualifying if DR won that match.

Here's your reason to use qualifying tournaments and NOT world rankings for qualification.

[newbeach]

Sept 20, 2023 9:42:52 GMT -5 @madden55 said:

Sept 20, 2023 9:30:15 GMT -5 trojansc said:

This result was really bad for DOM/NED. They would have rather took their risks with not qualifying here, have Canada be 100% out of the running for direct qualification, AND not gain qualification points for world ranking.

Instead, Canada has a shot at qualifying here, which means only 1 of DOM/NED could go to Paris, and they have been neck-and-neck in World Ranking.

Then again, DOM/NED are in a position where if they win their next three matches, they are 100% going to Paris. But, that's a really tough slate, they both get CHN/SRB and then each other.

I really have trouble deciding how good I think China is. I want to say the dutch are better slightly but idk for sure. I could see DR or the dutch going 2-1 tho. with that lost coming to serbia. I am fairly confident that we go undefeated here but we havent looked unstoppable by any means. I do think we havent really kicked it into the high gear that we can tho and thats why I feel confident. Its rather unfortunate that somehow the dutch, DR, and canada are all in the same pool. They coulda caused trouble if spread out

I think Serbia is the proving to be the clear favorite, but we have to look at what happens if Ned or Dom beat Serbia. How will that change everything? Then there are the spoilers as this is not a weak pool by any means. This pool ... 🤯

[newbeach]

Sept 20, 2023 11:00:26 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Sept 20, 2023 10:59:04 GMT -5 newbeach said:

No ... DOM wouldn't do that! Would they? 

I don't think so. In 2016 qualification - they really should have thrown the match to Puerto Rico. An asinine qualification system basically guaranteed #3 from NORCECA Qualification (Puerto Rico) while the #2 had to go to a fight-for-your-life World Qualifier with the dramatic JPN-SRB contest. Puerto Rico never would have made it out there (and Dominicana didn't either).

That is wild. 

[pbh43]

I just saw the score - what happened in the Canada/China game???

[trojansc]

Sept 20, 2023 11:02:11 GMT -5 volleyguy said:

Sept 20, 2023 11:00:26 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I don't think so. In 2016 qualification - they really should have thrown the match to Puerto Rico. An asinine qualification system basically guaranteed #3 from NORCECA Qualification (Puerto Rico) while the #2 had to go to a fight-for-your-life World Qualifier with the dramatic JPN-SRB contest. Puerto Rico never would have made it out there (and Dominicana didn't either).

What would the difference be right now if DOM had not lost to CZE?

If DOM beat Czech - they would be guaranteed an Olympic berth if they beat two of SRB/CHN/NED. Right now, that *might* be good enough - but it's no guarantee. The only way to guarantee it for DOM now is to win all three.

The biggest issue is that if DOM ends up 5-2, they *could* lose the tie-breaker with a CHN/NED/SRB/CAN based on their Czech result. Of all those teams - DOM has the best chance at winning a tie-breaker with Canada.

Of course - it would only be DOM-like to beat Serbia or China and lose Olympic Qualification on a tie-breaker because they lost to the fricking Czech Republic.

[CAI BIN MUST GO]

Sept 20, 2023 11:00:26 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Sept 20, 2023 10:59:04 GMT -5 newbeach said:

No ... DOM wouldn't do that! Would they? 

I don't think so. In 2016 qualification - they really should have thrown the match to Puerto Rico. An asinine qualification system basically guaranteed #3 from NORCECA Qualification (Puerto Rico) while the #2 had to go to a fight-for-your-life World Qualifier with the dramatic JPN-SRB contest. Puerto Rico never would have made it out there (and Dominicana didn't either).

this was 2011

[trojansc]

Sept 20, 2023 11:17:41 GMT -5 CAI BIN MUST GO said:

Sept 20, 2023 11:00:26 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I don't think so. In 2016 qualification - they really should have thrown the match to Puerto Rico. An asinine qualification system basically guaranteed #3 from NORCECA Qualification (Puerto Rico) while the #2 had to go to a fight-for-your-life World Qualifier with the dramatic JPN-SRB contest. Puerto Rico never would have made it out there (and Dominicana didn't either).

this was 2011

I meant THA-JPN instead of JPN-SRB.

Hard to keep track of the year's of Japan's shady Olympic Qualification.

[volleyguy]

Sept 20, 2023 11:16:32 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Sept 20, 2023 11:02:11 GMT -5 volleyguy said:

What would the difference be right now if DOM had not lost to CZE?

If DOM beat Czech - they would be guaranteed an Olympic berth if they beat two of SRB/CHN/NED. Right now, that *might* be good enough - but it's no guarantee. The only way to guarantee it for DOM now is to win all three.

The biggest issue is that if DOM ends up 5-2, they *could* lose the tie-breaker with a CHN/NED/SRB/CAN based on their Czech result. Of all those teams - DOM has the best chance at winning a tie-breaker with Canada.

Of course - it would only be DOM-like to beat Serbia or China and lose Olympic Qualification on a tie-breaker because they lost to the fricking Czech Republic.

I just realized the Canada beat China in 5. I completely missed that and thought that match was later today. I need Serbia and DOM to take the 1 and 2 spots. What is the scenario for that to happen?

[CAI BIN MUST GO]

Sept 20, 2023 11:13:29 GMT -5 pbh43 said:

I just saw the score - what happened in the Canada/China game???

Diao was * awful * and Canada played decently

[trojansc]

Sept 20, 2023 11:02:41 GMT -5 n00b said:

Sept 20, 2023 10:18:49 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I'm also forseeing a scenario in which DOM/NED could potentially throw their match to the other one in order to prevent Canada from qualifying.

For example, say Netherlands beats China and loses to Serbia, whereas DOM loses to both and is already eliminated. DR could hypothetically just let Netherlands win/qualify and take their chances against Canada in world ranking rather than risk Canada qualifying if DR won that match.

Here's your reason to use qualifying tournaments and NOT world rankings for qualification.

First, I agree that is a better method than world ranking.

But that can easily happen in qualification tournaments too, unless you have like a knockout round where it's win or go home for everyone.

The 2012 qualification was Thailand was scoreboard watching against Serbia/Japan. There was only *one* way that Thailand didn't qualify. If Serbia won in 5. Japan needed 2 sets to qualify - all Serbia needed to do was win (even in 5). Well, both things happened, and Thailand was left out. Any other result besides 3-2 SRB would have qualified Thailand. I don't think the match was thrown, but, it did present that scenario as a possibility to send both teams through.

[CAI BIN MUST GO]

Sept 20, 2023 11:18:48 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Sept 20, 2023 11:17:41 GMT -5 CAI BIN MUST GO said:

this was 2011

I meant THA-JPN instead of JPN-SRB.

Hard to keep track of the year's of Japan's shady Olympic Qualification.

easy to get mixed up, since thailand was the one getting screwed over both times.

[trojansc]

Sept 20, 2023 11:20:50 GMT -5 volleyguy said:

I just realized the Canada beat China in 5. I completely missed that and thought that match was later today. I need Serbia and DOM to take the 1 and 2 spots. What is the scenario for that to happen?

The most simple scenario is that Serbia beats everyone, and DOM beats both China and Netherlands and has at least 15 points, or gets to 14 points and has a set ratio that is good enough to beat Canada.

It gets messy when DOM beats CHN/NED but 1 or 2 of those matches go 5. If that happens, Canada could beat out DOM on points or set ratio.

[n00b]

Sept 20, 2023 11:22:46 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Sept 20, 2023 11:02:41 GMT -5 n00b said:

Here's your reason to use qualifying tournaments and NOT world rankings for qualification.

First, I agree that is a better method than world ranking.

But that can easily happen in qualification tournaments too, unless you have like a knockout round where it's win or go home for everyone.

The 2012 qualification was Thailand was scoreboard watching against Serbia/Japan. There was only *one* way that Thailand didn't qualify. If Serbia won in 5. Japan needed 2 sets to qualify - all Serbia needed to do was win (even in 5). Well, both things happened, and Thailand was left out. Any other result besides 3-2 SRB would have qualified Thailand. I don't think the match was thrown, but, it did present that scenario as a possibility to send both teams through.

Soccer does simultaneous start times to prevent this. They also randomly schedule the order of matches (it's part of the draw in events like World Cup Groups). FIVB likes to intentionally put marquee matches at the end. It's certainly a balance of wanting to increase intrigue and make sure competitive equity is high. But I think avoiding matches where it's beneficial to lose is worth the small differences.

[trojansc]

Sept 20, 2023 11:27:43 GMT -5 n00b said:

FIVB likes to intentionally put marquee matches at the end. .

This. This is what I complained about before the tournament started. They have a very specific way of scheduling matches.

My thing is - it's LESS exciting if Serbia/China are both qualified by the time the last match takes place. Like, who cares about winning at that point? They're both going to the Olympics. Why should Boskovic take 80 swings in a 5-setter that doesn't matter?

Why can't Serbia play China in the middle of the tournament? Like, if that was the next match, that would be super dramatic given China's loss to Canada. If China beat Serbia in that instance, it's mass chaos.