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Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 7, 2024 14:19:34 GMT -5
Updated: Resumes of the primary at-large contenders. Drawing the line @ #12 for resumes. Why? Ball State is #12 in Massey SOS: (Massey) Irvine #2 UCLA #5 GCU #7 Long Beach #11 Hawaii #15 Does the committee actually use Massey? Lol, you already knew the answer to that The SOS are similar to others like RPI that dont get published, as frequently |
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Post by Logan Tom Fan on Apr 7, 2024 20:49:08 GMT -5
This is a very important weekend for the teams trying to get the at-large. Let’s assume that GCU and Hawaii are losing again tonight and neither will win their conference tournament, which one of them would/should get that last at-large spot? Hawai’i definitely getting in over GCU with their win last night. Can even see Irvine getting in ahead of GCU because of their head to head that they won (without Flexen mind you). GCU’s best win is against BYU. Their record is nice, but no significant wins. |
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 7, 2024 21:13:00 GMT -5
This is a very important weekend for the teams trying to get the at-large. Let’s assume that GCU and Hawaii are losing again tonight and neither will win their conference tournament, which one of them would/should get that last at-large spot? Hawai’i definitely getting in over GCU with their win last night. Can even see Irvine getting in ahead of GCU because of their head to head that they won (without Flexen mind you). GCU’s best win is against BYU. Their record is nice, but no significant wins. that's a bit simple, yes GCU does not have a top 5 win however they have played 2/3 of matches on the road, and that's significant. no bad losses, only losses to UCLA, Hawaii, Irvine GCU's top wins (Stanford & BYU) are all on the road, all 4 of their top 5 losses are on the road. Irvine has lost to GMU & NOrthridge. the head to head is one data point. Irvine has 8 losses, they could end up with 10, so I question a 10 loss Irvine gets in over a 5 loss GCU. I think Irvine needs to likely beat Beach 2x to get realistic at-large consideration, but who knows, lots of matches yet Hawaii vs. GCU is different, Hawaii does have a home heavy schedule, but also those 3 top 5 wins vs. GCU & Irvine. Much better shape so long as they sweep UCSD adn get to the BWCT semis |
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 13, 2024 23:58:18 GMT -5
Updated:
Resumes of the primary at-large contenders. Still drawing the line @ #12 for resumes. Why? Ball State is #12 in Massey & KPI, and is the MIVA reg season champion, so #12 encompasses Ball STate/Ohio State/Loyola
How much does Hawaii adding a 'bad loss' affect their resume? Could a 10 loss Irvine really be an at-large, over 5 loss GCU, 7 loss Hawaii, 7 loss Penn State. Their KPI is high, I just don't see it.
it's almost GCU & then Hawaii by default at this point, assuming Beach & UCLA win their conference tournaments.
I mean after GCU & Hawaii....its a 10 loss Irvine, 9 loss BYU, or 7 loss Penn State ?
SOS: (Massey)
Irvine #2
UCLA #5
GCU #7
Long Beach #12
Hawaii #15
Top 12 KPI Records as the cutoff for now, those top 12 records below., since MIVA leader Ball State is at #12.
UCLA: 14-3 top 12, KPI #1, the SOS, UCLA is in, #1 or #2 seed
Irvine: 7-5 #2 SOS, KPI #4 SOS. Win over Beach is really good. losses to North & GMU
GCU: 6-4, KPI #3 an odd team for the committee, no top 5 wins and no bad losses. What would a first round MPSF loss do?
Beach: 6-2 KPI # 2 (not a great road schedule this year), and SOS lower than GCU
Hawaii: 7-4, KPI #6 (may drop with SD loss). winning the BWCT semi over Irvine would remove any doubt. would the committee take a 10 loss Irvine over a 7 loss Hawaii?
how would the commmitte rank GCU vs. Hawaii to me is the biggest question? Especially if Beach or UCLA lose their conf tourny, which is very possible. so the matches of Irvine, Hawaii, GCU, BYU are really huge next week.
likely NCAA tourney, if today.
#1 or #2 seed is still too hard to predict, almost a toss up, especially if both win their conf tournament.
#1-2:
Beach or UCLA. if one wins their conf tournament and the other does not, the winner of the conference tournament will be #1 seed
#3-6 seeds are crazy:
GCU
Hawaii (the most tenuous at-large bid)
Penn State (can't rull out GMU)
Ball State (MIVA toss-up bud
#7: Belmont Abbey
#8: Fort Valley
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Post by coy on Apr 14, 2024 9:30:20 GMT -5
It’d be a complete joke if Irvine beat Hawaii but lost in the finals and then GCU and Hawaii make it over Irvine.
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Post by soljah808 on Apr 14, 2024 9:38:46 GMT -5
It’d be a complete joke if Irvine beat Hawaii but lost in the finals and then GCU and Hawaii make it over Irvine. Well the joke would be on them if that were to happen. I doubt it will and this is coming from a Hawaii fan. They had the chance to slam the door on Hawaii at their place and couldn't sweep them. That's on them tbh. As Charlie said.....you better get them now while everyone has a chance...cause Hawaii is coming guns blazing next season and the years moving forward with all their upcoming recruiting classes. |
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Post by Kevin Garnett on Apr 14, 2024 9:38:55 GMT -5
It’d be a complete joke if Irvine beat Hawaii but lost in the finals and then GCU and Hawaii make it over Irvine. UCI’s hasn’t been consistent enough. Take a look at the their schedule, too many bad losses against low quality teams. GCU’s record against lower seeded teams is ultra clean. Hawaii’s not so much lately. |
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Post by kahusancali on Apr 14, 2024 10:17:20 GMT -5
It’d be a complete joke if Irvine beat Hawaii but lost in the finals and then GCU and Hawaii make it over Irvine. Well the joke would be on them if that were to happen. I doubt it will and this is coming from a Hawaii fan. They had the chance to slam the door on Hawaii at their place and couldn't sweep them. That's on them tbh. As Charlie said.....you better get them now while everyone has a chance...cause Hawaii is coming guns blazing next season and the years moving forward with all their upcoming recruiting classes. No doubt we have the firepower next year but I have a feeling we’ll be scratching our head again because of our Achilles heel- pass, receive, defense. I think we need to recruit another solid libero. Hope I’ll be proven wrong though 🤣 |
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 14, 2024 10:27:15 GMT -5
It’d be a complete joke if Irvine beat Hawaii but lost in the finals and then GCU and Hawaii make it over Irvine. Why is it a big joke? The committee is only supposed to consider 1/ 3 of the season? Ignore GCU s road schedule SOS? Yes, this year knowing Chakas is out, and seeing Irvine at their best are real . But if Irvine wanted to not be in this position they should have beat North beat Lewis and served like a tournament team yesterday. They didnt though How many mulligans should they get? |
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Post by babybacksets on Apr 14, 2024 10:51:37 GMT -5
Expand
The
Field
To
Sixteen!!!
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Post by coy on Apr 15, 2024 9:45:20 GMT -5
GCU's best wins are at BYU and home vs. USC, Stanford, and Pepperdine. Give me a break.
I couldn't care less what Hawaii is bringing in next year. That would be a wild thing to use to determine who should be playing in this year's NCAA Tournament.
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 15, 2024 11:27:16 GMT -5
GCU's best wins are at BYU and home vs. USC, Stanford, and Pepperdine. Give me a break. I couldn't care less what Hawaii is bringing in next year. That would be a wild thing to use to determine who should be playing in this year's NCAA Tournament. that is true about GCU's wins. however the wins were at BYU, not at GCU. even UCLA lost to BYU GCU has played about 2/3 of their matches on the road. Last year I was bagging on them because the schedule was 3/4 at home. GCU didn't lose to Northridge, Lewis, San Diego, Santa Barbara, George Mason- those are teams that Hawaii, UCLA, & Irvine lost to. GCU has a solid resume. the one missing thing is that top 5 win. and as a result they don't get head-to-head advantage but in terms of consistency, KPI, SOS, tough schedule, solid wins. they have a very good resume. sheesh, 2/3 of their games on the road, and 4 losses. that's not chopped liver. and yeah, if they can't beat BYU or Stanford on a neutral court this week, then that's not good. it's not like 2022, where Penn State had a solid resume and was left out. this year after UCLA & Beach, there's not a great decision as of now for the committee. so maybe Beach & UCLA both lose their conference tourney to make things simple, then there'll be nothing to debate for the selection committee, they can eat extra donuts. and in some ways, it's clear GCU, Irvine, Hawaii, and everyone else has to approach it as having to win their conference tourney or that's it. the conference tournies currently are part of the NCAAs since you have 8 of the top 10 or more teams having to win the conf tourny to have a shot at the NC. one thing about expanding the tourny field, the importance of winnning teh conf tourney gets diminished. If it was a 16 team field for the NCAAs, then IRvine, Hawaii, BYU, GCU, Ohio State, Penn State, Loyola, Ball State would already be in field, like the conf tourny is just a week of tune-up - so what's even the point then to even hold them for the MIVA, MPSF, & BIg West ? |
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Post by medusa on Apr 15, 2024 11:44:37 GMT -5
IMO= Hawaii has to win BWC in order to be in NCAA championship play offs.
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 15, 2024 12:22:09 GMT -5
IMO= Hawaii has to win BWC in order to be in NCAA championship play offs. If Hawaii beats IRvine in teh semis, and then Beach and UCLA or Grand Canyon win their respective tounaments, I guarantee you Hawaii will be in the NCAAs, as the last at-large. there is NO WAY Hawaii with a 3-1 edge over IRvine and 7 losses for Hawaii and 10 losses for IRvine would get left out in that scenario. It wouldn't even be close, or even remotely compare to 2018, where Hawaii had a real scketchy road record. Hawaii has beat Ball State, Fort Wayne (2x), and Irvine on the road this year. their home schedule is heavy again as usual, but Hawaii's road schedule was solid, and that Ball State win could end up being huge. Hawaii has gone 5-1 vs. 4 of thee top 6 teams in the MIVA. They've gone 3-0 vs. the upper MSPF (Stanford and GCU). yeah, they are sucking wind for good reasons in teh Big West, lol. I mean, I guess the committee could say hey if you don't have Chakas then we dont want you and you aren't coming and laying an egg in to the NCAAs, lol. but who knows, Hawaii paranoia about selection is a given. plus if Hawaii beats IRvine again, they'll be 2-1 vs Irvine without Chakas - it totally destroys the player availability argument against Hawaii. as it is If IRvine beats Hawaii in the semis, then it's still not clear. that becomes a crazy toss-up scenario. that win at Irvine for Hawaii was massive for Hawaii's resume to ahve a top 5 road win. Beach doesn't even have a top 5 road win. |
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Post by medusa on Apr 15, 2024 13:51:49 GMT -5
IMO= Hawaii has to win BWC in order to be in NCAA championship play offs. If Hawaii beats IRvine in teh semis, and then Beach and UCLA or Grand Canyon win their respective tounaments, I guarantee you Hawaii will be in the NCAAs, as the last at-large. there is NO WAY Hawaii with a 3-1 edge over IRvine and 7 losses for Hawaii and 10 losses for IRvine would get left out in that scenario. It wouldn't even be close, or even remotely compare to 2018, where Hawaii had a real scketchy road record. Hawaii has beat Ball State, Fort Wayne (2x), and Irvine on the road this year. their home schedule is heavy again as usual, but Hawaii's road schedule was solid, and that Ball State win could end up being huge. Hawaii has gone 5-1 vs. 4 of thee top 6 teams in the MIVA. They've gone 3-0 vs. the upper MSPF (Stanford and GCU). yeah, they are sucking wind for good reasons in teh Big West, lol. I mean, I guess the committee could say hey if you don't have Chakas then we dont want you and you aren't coming and laying an egg in to the NCAAs, lol. but who knows, Hawaii paranoia about selection is a given. plus if Hawaii beats IRvine again, they'll be 2-1 vs Irvine without Chakas - it totally destroys the player availability argument against Hawaii. as it is If IRvine beats Hawaii in the semis, then it's still not clear. that becomes a crazy toss-up scenario. that win at Irvine for Hawaii was massive for Hawaii's resume to ahve a top 5 road win. Beach doesn't even have a top 5 road win. I hope you prove me wrong. Thanks for input. |
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