|
|
Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 15, 2024 14:16:16 GMT -5
If Hawaii beats IRvine in teh semis, and then Beach and UCLA or Grand Canyon win their respective tounaments, I guarantee you Hawaii will be in the NCAAs, as the last at-large. there is NO WAY Hawaii with a 3-1 edge over IRvine and 7 losses for Hawaii and 10 losses for IRvine would get left out in that scenario. It wouldn't even be close, or even remotely compare to 2018, where Hawaii had a real scketchy road record. Hawaii has beat Ball State, Fort Wayne (2x), and Irvine on the road this year. their home schedule is heavy again as usual, but Hawaii's road schedule was solid, and that Ball State win could end up being huge. Hawaii has gone 5-1 vs. 4 of thee top 6 teams in the MIVA. They've gone 3-0 vs. the upper MSPF (Stanford and GCU). yeah, they are sucking wind for good reasons in teh Big West, lol. I mean, I guess the committee could say hey if you don't have Chakas then we dont want you and you aren't coming and laying an egg in to the NCAAs, lol. but who knows, Hawaii paranoia about selection is a given. plus if Hawaii beats IRvine again, they'll be 2-1 vs Irvine without Chakas - it totally destroys the player availability argument against Hawaii. as it is If IRvine beats Hawaii in the semis, then it's still not clear. that becomes a crazy toss-up scenario. that win at Irvine for Hawaii was massive for Hawaii's resume to ahve a top 5 road win. Beach doesn't even have a top 5 road win. I hope you prove me wrong. Thanks for input. I guess I would be interested in your rationale of why Hawaii won't be in the tourney, based on resumes and the data from the resumes. Assuming that is that both Beach & UCLA get their auto bids. |
|
|
|
Post by lesunshine1 on Apr 15, 2024 14:16:44 GMT -5
after a weekend of critical matches, with two biggies left in Hawaii tommorrow interesting after 2 losses, GCU remains #1 in KPI not surprising given the tough road schedlue for GCU faktorsports.com/at this point, Penn State is largely out of at-large discussion with a 1-3 road trip, a UCLA winwould have at least kept them relevant on the list. Top Tier: Beach, GCU, Hawaii, UCLA 2nd Tier. Irvine, Ohio State (dropped out of this tier) Pretty much win out to conference tourny finals and hope, meaning not gonna happen: BYU, Penn State, Pepperdine, Ohio State that's it Resumes in KPI & Massey of top 6, Stanford has dropped out of top 10 in KPI, replaced by Loyola SOS: (Massey) Irvine #2 UCLA #4 GCU #8 Ohio State #16 Long Beach #17 Hawaii #22 note Hawaii & Beach particularly have home heavy schedules, they can't afford road losses, maybe one more. Top 10 KPI & Massey Records approximate because gonna count Stanford, Pepp, & Loyola for now for purposes of 'top 10' records: seems a bit unfair to make a line in the sand for any of these, Stanford has the #1 SOS UCLA: 9-3 (last big non-conf match with Ohio State, big implications) Irvine: 5-3 GCU: 3-2 (what a difference a week makes, however, that is 3-2 on the road/neutral) Beach: 3-1 Hawaii: 5-1 Ohio State: 1-5, yikes, (1-2 if you throw out the Loyola losses), absolutely must beat UCLA again, and hope a selection somehow comes down to them or UCLA, even then no way a committee can ignore that top 10 record, if Ohio State wants any sniff at an at-large, they have to beat UCLA. Which didn't happen. upcoming, Hawaii vs. Beach next week. a 1-1 split won't hurt either team Hawaii vs. Irvine, kind of odd to have that non-conf match this year Irvine & UCLA given their SOS can sustain more overall losses, and still have a solid resume the MPSF & Big West conf semis and finals are going to likely have huge implications. could be a 4th match between Hawaii & Irvine in their future. potentially 2 out of UCLA/Irvine/Hawaii/Beach/GCU could get left out of the NCAAs, maybe even 3 out of the 5, that's just brutal. and the fact is only 4 out of UCLA/GCU/Hawaii/Irinve/Beach can be in the NCAAs, one of them will will not get in the NCAAs. UH does not deserve an at large they are not the same team without Spryos. |
|
|
|
Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 15, 2024 14:41:13 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 15, 2024 14:42:50 GMT -5
KPI, faktorsports.com/Hawaii is taking it on the chin in KPI, both RPI/KPI, committee should not compound the use by having two criteria, just an average of them top 5, top 10, top 15 records based on the ratings is what the committee should emphasize - which they seem to do a bit more in last few years |
|
|
|
Post by soljah808 on Apr 15, 2024 14:57:21 GMT -5
I mean that makes sense considering Hawaii lost to an unranked team in UCSD. When was the last time they did that? 2018???
|
|
|
|
Post by VT Karen on Apr 15, 2024 18:43:16 GMT -5
KPI, faktorsports.com/Hawaii is taking it on the chin in KPI, both RPI/KPI, committee should not compound the use by having two criteria, just an average of them top 5, top 10, top 15 records based on the ratings is what the committee should emphasize - which they seem to do a bit more in last few years What do you think about GCU being at #2? |
|
|
|
Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 15, 2024 18:56:20 GMT -5
KPI, faktorsports.com/Hawaii is taking it on the chin in KPI, both RPI/KPI, committee should not compound the use by having two criteria, just an average of them top 5, top 10, top 15 records based on the ratings is what the committee should emphasize - which they seem to do a bit more in last few years What do you think about GCU being at #2? it's a formula, and I guess I don't claim to know it's ins and outs Given the SOS of GCU's road schedule, I'm not surprised. Beach did not have a great schedule IMO, the two matches vs King, and Edward Waters and Central. those four matches were an overkill by Knipe, and fortunately won't hurt their NCAA changes. but those 4 collectively were horrific for RPI/KPI. Hawaii has something similar almost every year with the overabundance of home matches. I don't get why different wins count differently for KPI. some of the + / - is not intuitively making sense. I hope the committee just averages RPI/KPI and does not 'double count' those as factors, it would just seem to compound bias, IMO. And hopefully only uses KPI/RPI generally to group teams. UCLA makes total sense, they played so many top teams at home and away. there's no arguing with their rating, and just one bad loss UCSB being one or two positions off in RPI/KPI shouldn't be some end all top 5, top 10, top 15 records should be the big differentiators. as well as the SOS factors. I can't figure out why Hawaii is so low, it's not like they don't have a solid amount of quality wins, including on the road. but like Beach a few too many cupcakes at home if Beach had replaced King with a home and home with USC, I think their KPI would ahve been so much better, assuming they could have won both |
|
|
|
Post by VT Karen on Apr 15, 2024 19:03:29 GMT -5
What do you think about GCU being at #2? it's a formula, and I guess I don't claim to know it's ins and outs Given the SOS of GCU's road schedule, I'm not surprised. Beach did not have a great schedule IMO, the two matches vs King, and Edward Waters and Central. those four matches were an overkill by Knipe, and fortunately won't hurt their NCAA changes. but those 4 collectively were horrific for RPI/KPI. Hawaii has something similar almost every year with the overabundance of home matches. I don't get why different wins count differently for KPI. some of the + / - is not intuitively making sense. I hope the committee just averages RPI/KPI and does not 'double count' those as factors, it would just seem to compound bias, IMO. And hopefully only uses KPI/RPI generally to group teams. UCLA makes total sense, they played so many top teams at home and away. there's no arguing with their rating, and just one bad loss UCSB being one or two positions off in RPI/KPI shouldn't be some end all top 5, top 10, top 15 records should be the big differentiators. as well as the SOS factors. I can't figure out why Hawaii is so low, it's not like they don't have a solid amount of quality wins, including on the road. but like Beach a few too many cupcakes at home if Beach had replaced King with a home and home with USC, I think their KPI would ahve been so much better, assuming they could have won both Thank you for explaining what you're seeing here. I think UCLA makes perfect sense at number 1. I also agree that Hawaii and LBSU had home heavy schedules sprinkled with cupcakes in the early part of the non-conference. I'm just baffled with GCU at #2. Maybe it's the number of losses at only 4 and they're being buoyed by their two wins at BYU? That's the only thing I see that comes near to explaining why they're so high. |
|
|
|
Post by BeachbytheBay on Apr 15, 2024 19:37:51 GMT -5
it's a formula, and I guess I don't claim to know it's ins and outs Given the SOS of GCU's road schedule, I'm not surprised. Beach did not have a great schedule IMO, the two matches vs King, and Edward Waters and Central. those four matches were an overkill by Knipe, and fortunately won't hurt their NCAA changes. but those 4 collectively were horrific for RPI/KPI. Hawaii has something similar almost every year with the overabundance of home matches. I don't get why different wins count differently for KPI. some of the + / - is not intuitively making sense. I hope the committee just averages RPI/KPI and does not 'double count' those as factors, it would just seem to compound bias, IMO. And hopefully only uses KPI/RPI generally to group teams. UCLA makes total sense, they played so many top teams at home and away. there's no arguing with their rating, and just one bad loss UCSB being one or two positions off in RPI/KPI shouldn't be some end all top 5, top 10, top 15 records should be the big differentiators. as well as the SOS factors. I can't figure out why Hawaii is so low, it's not like they don't have a solid amount of quality wins, including on the road. but like Beach a few too many cupcakes at home if Beach had replaced King with a home and home with USC, I think their KPI would ahve been so much better, assuming they could have won both Thank you for explaining what you're seeing here. I think UCLA makes perfect sense at number 1. I also agree that Hawaii and LBSU had home heavy schedules sprinkled with cupcakes in the early part of the non-conference. I'm just baffled with GCU at #2. Maybe it's the number of losses at only 4 and they're being buoyed by their two wins at BYU? That's the only thing I see that comes near to explaining why they're so high. it's not that baffling. they scheduled decent teams, no really bad teams, other than Concordia in their conference. they went 3-0 vs. the Big West at the opening ASICs tournament Lindewood turned out to be a very solid opponent. no bad losses. they beat every single team outside of their top 5 opponents (UCLA, Hawaii, IRvine). For some reason people don't appreciate that consistently, and yea that lack of a that 'glamor win' makes for a perception issue. I can see why metrics (even Massey, who has them at #3) gives them high ratings. of their 22 wins, only 1 (Lewis at a neutral site) went to 5 sets, pretty dominating in their wins. They went 10-0 vs the MPSF not named UCLA. It's a really good record. Two of their losses were five setters on the road to top 5 teams. LOng Beach had 4 opponents (King 2x. Edward waters, and Central) that was a combined 29-81 record that really brought down Beachs RPI/KPI ( and UCSD & UCSB were also RPI drags for Big West teams). Hawaii had six games vs. Missouri I&T, Tusculum, and Emmanual that drug own Hawaii's RPI/KPI. It's not always easy to optimize that schedule as people think it might be. Hawaii has to fill home games. I'm sure they are asking all the MPSF teams to come out every year, just not an automatic thing for that to happen. |
|
|
|
Post by VT Karen on Apr 15, 2024 19:43:19 GMT -5
Thank you for explaining what you're seeing here. I think UCLA makes perfect sense at number 1. I also agree that Hawaii and LBSU had home heavy schedules sprinkled with cupcakes in the early part of the non-conference. I'm just baffled with GCU at #2. Maybe it's the number of losses at only 4 and they're being buoyed by their two wins at BYU? That's the only thing I see that comes near to explaining why they're so high. it's not that baffling. they scheduled decent teams, no really bad teams, other than Concordia in their conference. they went 3-0 vs. the Big West at the opening ASICs tournament Lindewood turned out to be a very solid opponent. no bad losses. they beat every single team outside of their top 5 opponents (UCLA, Hawaii, IRvine). For some reason people don't appreciate that consistently, and yea that lack of a that 'glamor win' makes for a perception issue. I can see why metrics (even Massey, who has them at #3) gives them high ratings. of their 22 wins, only 1 (Lewis at a neutral site) went to 5 sets, pretty dominating in their wins. They went 10-0 vs the MPSF not named UCLA. It's a really good record. Two of their losses were five setters on the road to top 5 teams. LOng Beach had 4 opponents (King 2x. Edward waters, and Central) that was a combined 29-81 record that really brought down Beachs RPI/KPI ( and UCSD & UCSB were also RPI drags for Big West teams). Hawaii had six games vs. Missouri I&T, Tusculum, and Emmanual that drug own Hawaii's RPI/KPI. It's not always easy to optimize that schedule as people think it might be. Hawaii has to fill home games. I'm sure they are asking all the MPSF teams to come out every year, just not an automatic thing for that to happen. True. They have beaten all the teams that they should beat and have been consistent outside of their weekend in Hawaii and losing x2 to UCLA. No bad losses. |
|
|
|
Post by gobruins on Apr 16, 2024 5:09:57 GMT -5
It would seem to me that the expected Big West semi-final between Hawaii and UCI is, essentially, an elimination game.
|
|
|
|
Post by soljah808 on Apr 16, 2024 6:44:53 GMT -5
It would seem to me that the expected Big West semi-final between Hawaii and UCI is, essentially, an elimination game. I mean Hawaii would have to get by a pesky UCSB team first. And that isn't a given without Spyros on the floor and Bianchi lighting it up for them. |
|
|
|
Post by MonroeClark90 on Apr 16, 2024 7:12:04 GMT -5
I hope they’re able to push thru playoff expansion ASAP. As mush as it hurts your chances, you don’t want teams like Beach and Hawaiii to stop scheduling lesser teams. What one team sees as an easy win on the schedule, for the other it is a great experience and a memory that will last a lifetime walking onto the floor at the pyramid or the Stan. For the sake of growing this game, those matches need to continue.
|
|
|
|
Post by soljah808 on Apr 16, 2024 8:59:02 GMT -5
I hope they’re able to push thru playoff expansion ASAP. As mush as it hurts your chances, you don’t want teams like Beach and Hawaiii to stop scheduling lesser teams. What one team sees as an easy win on the schedule, for the other it is a great experience and a memory that will last a lifetime walking onto the floor at the pyramid or the Stan. For the sake of growing this game, those matches need to continue. Exactly. Those teams and programs were in literal awe of the entire experience. Even 3k in the stands which is considered a smaller crowd for Hawaii standards....was like big time to those programs that watched in the Stan. Most of those guys from those multiple programs never been to Hawaii as well till that experience. And it definitely inspired them and their programs to keep pushing. |
|
|
|
Post by coy on Apr 16, 2024 11:13:54 GMT -5
I like the 8 team format. If you go to 16 you're getting such a big percentage of your entire sport into the Tournament.
|
|
