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Post by BeachbytheBay on Aug 20, 2024 13:43:25 GMT -5
can someone explain, with some detail, why Hawaii would appear to be the prohibitive favorite to win the Big West? that the 'poll' infers or is this just because the # of posters and voters are 80% Hawaii fans Assuming 80% of poll voters are Hawai'i fans: 41 voters total as of 8/20/24 AM. ~ 32 are Hawai'i fans (assuming ~ 78% of 41 voters). 18 have voted for Hawai'i (assuming all voters are Hawai'i fans, then ~ 56% of 32 Hawai'i voters). If so, then ~ 44% of Hawai'i voters are voting for other teams (~14 of 32). But, of the 9 non-Hawai'i voters, who did they vote for? Just their home teams? Doesn't seem likely. Assume they voted 44% for some other team, same as the Hawai'i rate. Then out of those 9 non-Hawai'i votes, four votes probably went to one of the Tier-1 teams: Hawai'i/Beach/Cal Poly and maybe one more (UCSD/UCSB?). Given Hawai'i is the BWCT winner and a perennial in Tier-1, not unreasonable to assume that 2 of the 9 non-Hawai'i fan voters voted for Hawai'i. If so, then 16 of 18 of the Hawai'i votes are from Hawai'i fans, which means that 16 of 31 Hawai'i voters picked Hawai'i. SO, that means that of the Hawai'i fan voters, it's almost a coin flip as to whether or not they voted for their own team. Not an outrageous result for a pre-season poll, given your assumption of 80% Hawai'i fans voting. lol, can you summarize which team is the non-biased conference favorite or maybe two polls 1) Who do you want to win the Big West 2) who do your really, I mean really, I mean put your bias out of the way, think will actually win? why the polls in the Big West are always suspect was actually interested in why Hawaii will win, other than 'inertia', and 'we are Hawaii', given they lost the CPOY and seem (at least to me) to have a really difficult pre-season and then conf season. And they have the toughest conf schedule this year to play SB, Poly, Beach 6 times - due to the crappy instance of Beach playing SB & Poly once, yuk who is that stand-out player difference maker for Hawaii going to be that sets them apart? Is Robyn just going to berate their back-court into digging out every possible kill attempt and that's why they'll win? |
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Post by noblesol on Aug 20, 2024 14:52:14 GMT -5
Assuming 80% of poll voters are Hawai'i fans: 41 voters total as of 8/20/24 AM. ~ 32 are Hawai'i fans (assuming ~ 78% of 41 voters). 18 have voted for Hawai'i (assuming all voters are Hawai'i fans, then ~ 56% of 32 Hawai'i voters). If so, then ~ 44% of Hawai'i voters are voting for other teams (~14 of 32). But, of the 9 non-Hawai'i voters, who did they vote for? Just their home teams? Doesn't seem likely. Assume they voted 44% for some other team, same as the Hawai'i rate. Then out of those 9 non-Hawai'i votes, four votes probably went to one of the Tier-1 teams: Hawai'i/Beach/Cal Poly and maybe one more (UCSD/UCSB?). Given Hawai'i is the BWCT winner and a perennial in Tier-1, not unreasonable to assume that 2 of the 9 non-Hawai'i fan voters voted for Hawai'i. If so, then 16 of 18 of the Hawai'i votes are from Hawai'i fans, which means that 16 of 31 Hawai'i voters picked Hawai'i. SO, that means that of the Hawai'i fan voters, it's almost a coin flip as to whether or not they voted for their own team. Not an outrageous result for a pre-season poll, given your assumption of 80% Hawai'i fans voting. lol, can you summarize which team is the non-biased conference favorite or maybe two polls 1) Who do you want to win the Big West 2) who do your really, I mean really, I mean put your bias out of the way, think will actually win? why the polls in the Big West are always suspect was actually interested in why Hawaii will win, other than 'inertia', and 'we are Hawaii', given they lost the CPOY and seem (at least to me) to have a really difficult pre-season and then conf season. And they have the toughest conf schedule this year to play SB, Poly, Beach 6 times - due to the crappy instance of Beach playing SB & Poly once, yuk who is that stand-out player difference maker for Hawaii going to be that sets them apart? Is Robyn just going to berate their back-court into digging out every possible kill attempt and that's why they'll win? Hawai'i fans at ~ 50% voting for other teams in a pre-conference poll, might be indicative of much less bias than some would assume. Just a guess as to why so many of the Hawai'i fanbase is choosing one of the other teams. But you've picked a few of them — loss of Igiede, no dominating hitter, relatively tough schedule. But, it's not clear yet that Beach or Poly have significantly improved themselves. They both return a lot, but it's not clear they've improved their weakest links yet, their chinks in their armor. Poor passing, inconsistent play, injury bugs, and sometimes head-scratching coaching moves. Beach has a new head coach, so there's that lack of clarity on how she'll do early, and as pressure builds into the end of season and the tournament. UCSB lost a ton of starters and production to graduation and transfer, and their 2nd-year coach is going to be challenged early and hard. They'll probably be focused on getting to the BWCT, not the conference championship. UCSD returns their best players and added a very good grad transfer from USD — Pries. Brooker is an excellent setter for them and probably BWC 1st team, as is McInnes. They could be one of the tallest teams and should have a great block this year. The team looks set to compete well, and in their 1st year of tournament eligibility they look to have the tools to do well. But, they have a new HC and staff, can they pass, can they defend the back court, and who is their 2nd middle. They'll still have to come together as a team, buy in to what the new staff is peddling, and rise to the occasion. |
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Aug 20, 2024 15:31:04 GMT -5
lol, can you summarize which team is the non-biased conference favorite or maybe two polls 1) Who do you want to win the Big West 2) who do your really, I mean really, I mean put your bias out of the way, think will actually win? why the polls in the Big West are always suspect was actually interested in why Hawaii will win, other than 'inertia', and 'we are Hawaii', given they lost the CPOY and seem (at least to me) to have a really difficult pre-season and then conf season. And they have the toughest conf schedule this year to play SB, Poly, Beach 6 times - due to the crappy instance of Beach playing SB & Poly once, yuk who is that stand-out player difference maker for Hawaii going to be that sets them apart? Is Robyn just going to berate their back-court into digging out every possible kill attempt and that's why they'll win? Hawai'i fans at ~ 50% voting for other teams in a pre-conference poll, might be indicative of much less bias than some would assume. Just a guess as to why so many of the Hawai'i fanbase is choosing one of the other teams. But you've picked a few of them — loss of Igiede, no dominating hitter, relatively tough schedule. But, it's not clear yet that Beach or Poly have significantly improved themselves. They both return a lot, but it's not clear they've improved their weakest links yet, their chinks in their armor. Poor passing, inconsistent play, injury bugs, and sometimes head-scratching coaching moves. Beach has a new head coach, so there's that lack of clarity on how she'll do early, and as pressure builds into the end of season and the tournament. UCSB lost a ton of starters and production to graduation and transfer, and their 2nd-year coach is going to be challenged early and hard. They'll probably be focused on getting to the BWCT, not the conference championship. UCSD returns their best players and added a very good grad transfer from USD — Pries. Brooker is an excellent setter for them and probably BWC 1st team, as is McInnes. They could be one of the tallest teams and should have a great block this year. The team looks set to compete well, and in their 1st year of tournament eligibility they look to have the tools to do well. But, they have a new HC and staff, can they pass, can they defend the back court, and who is their 2nd middle. They'll still have to come together as a team, buy in to what the new staff is pedaling, and rise to the occasion. Poly is a bit of a hunch. They only lost one player, and yeah in that area of passing, but they did added a libero, and depth and competition especially at MB. It's hard to imagine of all the teams that Poly will not be improved. And as I said, they had a summer tour. Just a lot of little things that I think makes Poly a logical choice. And all that coming off a 14-4 tie for 2nd last year. I mean Walters would really have to have a significant fail with this group to not finish top 2 IMO, and she's proven to be a solid coach Hawaii, Beach, SB have so many or enough significant differences that unless they got a huge impact player (which I don't think) they project to be maybe as good or a little better at best |
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Post by Cubicle No More ... on Aug 20, 2024 15:33:56 GMT -5
can someone explain, with some detail, why Hawaii would appear to be the prohibitive favorite to win the Big West? that the 'poll' infers or is this just because the # of posters and voters are 80% Hawaii fans are there even any hawaii fans on this board?   |
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Post by goblin on Aug 20, 2024 15:45:59 GMT -5
can someone explain, with some detail, why Hawaii would appear to be the prohibitive favorite to win the Big West? that the 'poll' infers or is this just because the # of posters and voters are 80% Hawaii fans I can't speak to the opinions of other Hawaii posters but yeah, Hawaii has more posters than other BWC teams by a large margin and of course we are unbiased when it comes to responding to polls like this . I'm not going to lie, this will be a challenging year for the Wahine with all the new faces and the loss of so many seasoned players. |
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Post by noblesol on Aug 20, 2024 15:47:48 GMT -5
Hawai'i fans at ~ 50% voting for other teams in a pre-conference poll, might be indicative of much less bias than some would assume. Just a guess as to why so many of the Hawai'i fanbase is choosing one of the other teams. But you've picked a few of them — loss of Igiede, no dominating hitter, relatively tough schedule. But, it's not clear yet that Beach or Poly have significantly improved themselves. They both return a lot, but it's not clear they've improved their weakest links yet, their chinks in their armor. Poor passing, inconsistent play, injury bugs, and sometimes head-scratching coaching moves. Beach has a new head coach, so there's that lack of clarity on how she'll do early, and as pressure builds into the end of season and the tournament. UCSB lost a ton of starters and production to graduation and transfer, and their 2nd-year coach is going to be challenged early and hard. They'll probably be focused on getting to the BWCT, not the conference championship. UCSD returns their best players and added a very good grad transfer from USD — Pries. Brooker is an excellent setter for them and probably BWC 1st team, as is McInnes. They could be one of the tallest teams and should have a great block this year. The team looks set to compete well, and in their 1st year of tournament eligibility they look to have the tools to do well. But, they have a new HC and staff, can they pass, can they defend the back court, and who is their 2nd middle. They'll still have to come together as a team, buy in to what the new staff is pedaling, and rise to the occasion. Poly is a bit of a hunch. They only lost one player, and yeah in that area of passing, but they did added a libero, and depth and competition especially at MB. It's hard to imagine of all the teams that Poly will not be improved. And as I said, they had a summer tour. Just a lot of little things that I think makes Poly a logical choice. And all that coming off a 14-4 tie for 2nd last year. I mean Walters would really have to have a significant fail with this group to not finish top 2 IMO, and she's proven to be a solid coach Hawaii, Beach, SB have so many or enough significant differences that unless they got a huge impact player (which I don't think) they project to be maybe as good or a little better at best Cal Poly is a reasonable favorite. But so much will hinge on their passing, Bullis not having to move too much, and Stockham's right arm. When they can't run their middle, they've been predictable. A good defense with good transition offense has a good shot at turning the table. If Cal Poly can pass well enough this year, and key players can stay healthy, they'll be one of the favorites. |
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Post by beachgrad on Aug 20, 2024 21:05:47 GMT -5
Wins in the non-conference is always how outsiders look at the strength of the conference and that goes for RPI too. It looks like UCSB and LBSU have the most aggressive schedules and that makes sense for LBSU since they are a lot of upperclassman returning but UCSB is basically a whole new and young team. Hawaii and Cal Poly have some tough matches but a lot of them are winnable and seem to fit where they are regarding their personnel. Last year's middle of the pack teams have put together schedules that could produce a lot of wins. The bottom of the conference has scheduled according and have to start winning more than they lose. CSUN and CSUB lost their coaches and were scrambling to put rosters together so I do not have much hope for this season's non-conference success regardless of who they play. Hopefully the top 2/3rds can win enough games to improve on last year's conference RPI of 10th and move up a few more notches.
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Post by noblesol on Aug 20, 2024 23:46:06 GMT -5
Wins in the non-conference is always how outsiders look at the strength of the conference and that goes for RPI too. It looks like UCSB and LBSU have the most aggressive schedules and that makes sense for LBSU since they are a lot of upperclassman returning but UCSB is basically a whole new and young team. Hawaii and Cal Poly have some tough matches but a lot of them are winnable and seem to fit where they are regarding their personnel. Last year's middle of the pack teams have put together schedules that could produce a lot of wins. The bottom of the conference has scheduled according and have to start winning more than they lose. CSUN and CSUB lost their coaches and were scrambling to put rosters together so I do not have much hope for this season's non-conference success regardless of who they play. Hopefully the top 2/3rds can win enough games to improve on last year's conference RPI of 10th and move up a few more notches. CSUB is still being coached by Giovana Melo. gorunners.com/sports/womens-volleyball/roster#sidearm-roster-coaches Teams with new coaches are Beach, UCSD, and CSUN. The BWC Adj. RPI rank was 19th last year at Selection, and 18th Final. Only one word for it — weak. stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/conference_division_ranking_reports/33989?utf8=%E2%9C%93&commit=Submit |
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Post by gouci on Aug 21, 2024 0:48:16 GMT -5
To correct. Bake and CSUN have the same top returning players. And no love for UCI? Not even a team breakdown posted for UCI? Well if UCI beats Hawaii this season you can blame vballfreak808 for starting all the bad karma  |
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Post by gouci on Aug 21, 2024 2:31:28 GMT -5
Three Big West teams have new head coaches which brings with it uncertainty. For UCI on the other hand I would say the coaching staff continuity is one of its biggest strengths this season. Head Coach Ashley Hain and both assistants Naseri Tumanuvao + Brandon Thich return and this group has been together for 4 plus years.
At the end of last season as a UCI fan it was hard to predict how this years team would be. It was not known how many of the contributing graduate transfers if any would return. It seems 2 of the 4 in Hunter Riedl & Ella Gardiner are still on the roster which is good news.
So last season UCI pushed Long Beach St. into 5 sets in the Big West tourney. For UCI 13 players saw court time in that match and 10 of them returned on the roster this season.
Isabella Scarlett a grad student that played MB1 graduated. She is replaced by USC grad transfer MB Katie Smith.
Marianna Bertolone a senior that played OH1 graduated. She is replaced by Portland State Junior transfer OH Kendra Duffey.
Lexi Gruszczynski a grad student that played DS graduated. Senior back up libero Amanda Leinbach will probably take her place.
Now both transfers Katie Smith and Kendra Duffey along with Big West Freshman of the Year Nicole Feliciano all graduated from Aliso Niguel High School. Maybe the 3 women wanted to reunite and win a Big West Championship, UCI is hosting the tourney this season, like Aliso Niguel won a Div. 2 CIF championship.
Last season UCI (11-19) finished with an RPI of 224. Irvine looks to be improved this season but by how much is hard to tell. At the end of the year will UCI have an RPI in the top 150, top 100 or even better? It's a wait and see. But if UCI is contending for a Big West Tournament title after last season's team was devastated by the transfer portal it would be a quick rebuilding job by Coach Ashley Hain.
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Post by VT Karen on Aug 21, 2024 4:13:45 GMT -5
It's Hawaii for me until someone knocks them off the top of the conference.
Overall all, I'd like to see the top teams in the Big West have strong seasons and for the bottom to improve.
GO BOWS!
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vballfreak808
Hawaiian Ohana 
2020 All-VolleyTalk 1st Team, All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2023, 2022, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk HM (2021, 2019, 2018), 2017 Fantasy League 1st Runner-up, 2016 Fantasy League Champion
#GoBows
Posts: 13,627
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Post by vballfreak808 on Aug 21, 2024 8:35:27 GMT -5
To correct. Bake and CSUN have the same top returning players. And no love for UCI? Not even a team breakdown posted for UCI? Well if UCI beats Hawaii this season you can blame vballfreak808 for starting all the bad karma Chill. I haven’t had time to fix everything. I’ll be more motivated when Fullerton decides to post their roster |
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Aug 21, 2024 11:22:52 GMT -5
It's Hawaii for me until someone knocks them off the top of the conference. Overall all, I'd like to see the top teams in the Big West have strong seasons and for the bottom to improve. GO BOWS! SB did just that last year |
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Aug 21, 2024 11:28:33 GMT -5
Wins in the non-conference is always how outsiders look at the strength of the conference and that goes for RPI too. It looks like UCSB and LBSU have the most aggressive schedules and that makes sense for LBSU since they are a lot of upperclassman returning but UCSB is basically a whole new and young team. Hawaii and Cal Poly have some tough matches but a lot of them are winnable and seem to fit where they are regarding their personnel. Last year's middle of the pack teams have put together schedules that could produce a lot of wins. The bottom of the conference has scheduled according and have to start winning more than they lose. CSUN and CSUB lost their coaches and were scrambling to put rosters together so I do not have much hope for this season's non-conference success regardless of who they play. Hopefully the top 2/3rds can win enough games to improve on last year's conference RPI of 10th and move up a few more notches. CSUB is still being coached by Giovana Melo. gorunners.com/sports/womens-volleyball/roster#sidearm-roster-coaches Teams with new coaches are Beach, UCSD, and CSUN. The BWC Adj. RPI rank was 19th last year at Selection, and 18th Final. Only one word for it — weak. stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/conference_division_ranking_reports/33989?utf8=%E2%9C%93&commit=SubmitMassey had the Big West as #10 last year masseyratings.com/cvol2023/ncaa-d1/ratings?c=1as recently as 2015 Big West was still top 7. WCC is interesting as no top 25 teams (BYU gone, SD slipped since their final 4). always interested to see how the top 3 of Big West compare with top 3 of WCC. masseyratings.com/cvol2016/ncaa-d1/ratings?c=1 |
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Post by noblesol on Aug 21, 2024 12:22:31 GMT -5
A wide variance between NCAA Adj. RPI and Massey. IIRC Massey weighs set results. Under Massey, losing in max sets is penalized less than losing in three sets, and wins in three sets are credited more than wins in five sets. While RPI doesn't look at sets and only weighs W/L end results, with Adj. RPI usually only moving things around marginally. It's also interesting to look at the NCAA Final 'Opponent SoS' rankings for 2023: - Kentucky: 1 - Stanford: 2 . - Texas: 12 - Nebraska: 14 . . - Hawai'i: 89 - UCSB: 112 - Beach: 121 - UC Davis: 147 - Cal Poly: 149 - UC Irvine: 160 |
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