|
Post by c4ndlelight on Jun 1, 2018 12:50:25 GMT -5
Kosheleva just had a serious injury and did not look good prior to that. She relies very heavily on going OT and if she can't do that...... Goncharova is also on the decline. She had a pretty bad pro season and years of overuse appear to have taken their toll on her. Poland is trending up... they may not be there by 2020 but they are climbing out from rock bottom and their youngsters are really good. Kosheleva was hitting .315 in Turkish League before her injury. According to the Turkish League site, she was the #1 OH in regular season play... Against the other top teams (Vakif/Fener/Ecz), she hit .170 on 3.1 kps. She had better overall season stats compared to the other Top OHs because the other top OHs took more matches off against the weak teams in the Turkish league (the majority of them). She was slightly better overall in Champions League (3.72 / .278) - but she hit under .250 in the majority of her matches there too. That does not cut it for an outside who is as terrible of a passer as she is. Jordan Larson can get away with that, Kosheleva can't.
|
|
|
Post by trianglevolleyball on Jun 1, 2018 13:23:54 GMT -5
I think Russia is in decline. Poland or Turkey will take their spot. I wouldn't assume Netherlands would be a lock either. Groethues is about 30 and injury prone and they don't have ANY other OH who can pass. I feel like you're suffering from recency bias. While Russia has been struggling (somewhat), Goncharova and Kosh def have the ability to come back strong in a push for their final Olympics. Poland and Turkey have good young players but the ceilings on their OHs seem very low to me, while Parubets and Voronkova (especially) have the potential to develop into world class players. Scherban is also sitting this WGP out, yeah? Even with Wolosz back the Polish offense is gonna have to rely primarily on Smarzek and a MB, and while Turkey has more balance they're still being led by a 30 yr-old MB. Things are certainly getting more competitive in Europe but I'm not sure 2020 is far enough away for the young European teams to overtake Russia's experience.
|
|
|
Post by jar11235 on Jun 1, 2018 13:45:19 GMT -5
I agree Russia is on the decline, but Kosheleva and Goncharova are still world class. Turkey played with much more of their A-Team than Russia did in their 2-3 loss. I could see Turkey taking their spot (especially with Guidetti), but I'm interested to see who their starting OHs will be. They have trouble keeping OHs on the floor. I don't think Poland is there yet. I agree with trojansc 's predictions, but as c4ndlelight said, a major asterisk next to Netherlands. If Morrison is trying to implement some USA-fast style volleyball, I'm worried. They don't have the passing for that system. I'm inclined to say they should stick to a higher/slower/RUSSIA system, because they have some arms on that team. I would also put one next to Italy - what an inconsistent team. They have a VERY high ceiling but I hardly ever see them reach it. Asia is very lucky Japan is hosting in 2020. There is a huge drop off after China, but because Japan is hosting, South Korea or Thailand will be in the field. Not entirely convinced Japan, Korea or Thailand deserve to be there at all. I totally agree. I think Turkey is a big threat not only to take Rusia's place but I don't think Italy is a lock either.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2018 16:11:21 GMT -5
I agree with trojansc 's predictions, but as c4ndlelight said, a major asterisk next to Netherlands. If Morrison is trying to implement some USA-fast style volleyball, I'm worried. They don't have the passing for that system. I'm inclined to say they should stick to a higher/slower/RUSSIA system, because they have some arms on that team. Well it looks like Plak has been playing a little more, which is a good thing. With DeKruijf out, it's not like they're desperate to pass well so they can get the ball to the middles or anything, but I don't know if they need to venture too far toward the Russia end of the offensive spectrum, necessarily. Buijs also seems like she's playing at a pretty high level, despite having a really poor showing against USA. Then again, it's pretty rare for anyone not to have a poor showing against USA.
|
|
|
Post by donut on Jun 1, 2018 16:22:42 GMT -5
Kosheleva was hitting .315 in Turkish League before her injury. According to the Turkish League site, she was the #1 OH in regular season play... Against the other top teams (Vakif/Fener/Ecz), she hit .170 on 3.1 kps. She had better overall season stats compared to the other Top OHs because the other top OHs took more matches off against the weak teams in the Turkish league (the majority of them). She was slightly better overall in Champions League (3.72 / .278) - but she hit under .250 in the majority of her matches there too. That does not cut it for an outside who is as terrible of a passer as she is. Jordan Larson can get away with that, Kosheleva can't. Zhu was really the only other top OH who played significantly less matches/sets. And I don't really think beating out Poland/Turkey for an Olympic spot compares to playing Vakif/Fener/Ezc. It's more equivalent to playing those weaker Turkish teams, against whom she obviously put up monster numbers. BTW - I don't disagree she is inefficient at times. But she's a great athlete and when she goes off, I don't think teams like Poland and Turkey have players that can match her + Gonch, even on their decline.
|
|
|
Post by donut on Jun 1, 2018 16:50:31 GMT -5
I agree with trojansc 's predictions, but as c4ndlelight said, a major asterisk next to Netherlands. If Morrison is trying to implement some USA-fast style volleyball, I'm worried. They don't have the passing for that system. I'm inclined to say they should stick to a higher/slower/RUSSIA system, because they have some arms on that team. Well it looks like Plak has been playing a little more, which is a good thing. With DeKruijf out, it's not like they're desperate to pass well so they can get the ball to the middles or anything, but I don't know if they need to venture too far toward the Russia end of the offensive spectrum, necessarily. Buijs also seems like she's playing at a pretty high level, despite having a really poor showing against USA. Then again, it's pretty rare for anyone not to have a poor showing against USA. Russia comment was (sort of) sarcasm. Nonetheless, Netherlands has 3 above average arms in Buijs, Plak and Sloetjes. When you lack elite passers, I don't see why you are trying to implement a system that requires (more so than the "average" volleyball system) elite passing, especially when your players don't need to beat the block in order to be effective. Then again, I didn't think the USA needed said system either... and here we are.
|
|
|
Post by ironhammer on Jun 1, 2018 19:09:45 GMT -5
Kosheleva just had a serious injury and did not look good prior to that. She relies very heavily on going OT and if she can't do that...... Goncharova is also on the decline. She had a pretty bad pro season and years of overuse appear to have taken their toll on her. Poland is trending up... they may not be there by 2020 but they are climbing out from rock bottom and their youngsters are really good. Actually, I think it might be more accurate to say Poland is returning to form rather than merely rising or trending up. For a time in the 00's, they were the best team in Europe, having won the 2003 and 2005 European Championships under the late Polish coach Andrzej Niemczyk. Then they fell into a prolonged slump that only now they seem to be recovering from.
|
|
trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 28,106
|
Post by trojansc on Jun 1, 2018 23:39:59 GMT -5
There are a million different ways to qualify 6 from 24. I'm very interested in what format they use.
|
|
|
Post by speegs13 on Oct 18, 2018 13:31:43 GMT -5
Found this official looking document: www.fivb.org/en/volleyball/FINAL_2018_09_23_Tokyo2020_QualificationSystem_Volleyball_eng.pdfSo it appears there is an "Intercontinental Olympic Qualification Tournament" set for 2019. Top 24 teams according to the FIVB world ranking on January 1, 2019. Six (6) pools of four (4) teams seeding using the serpentine system, with each pool winner qualifying for the olympics. Continental qualifiers are then in January of 2020. So I think the World Cup will still officially happen, but it won't count for qualification and probably ranking points only. I'm guessing the IOQT happens between the VNL and World Cup in July/August.
|
|
|
Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 18, 2018 13:43:20 GMT -5
Found this official looking document: www.fivb.org/en/volleyball/FINAL_2018_09_23_Tokyo2020_QualificationSystem_Volleyball_eng.pdfSo it appears there is an "Intercontinental Olympic Qualification Tournament" set for 2019. Top 24 teams according to the FIVB world ranking on January 1, 2019. Six (6) pools of four (4) teams seeding using the serpentine system, with each pool winner qualifying for the olympics. Continental qualifiers are then in January of 2020. So I think the World Cup will still officially happen, but it won't count for qualification and probably ranking points only. I'm guessing the IOQT happens between the VNL and World Cup in July/August. Wow. This is a terrible system and as unfair, if not more, to the European teams than the prior system. China, USA, Serbia, Brazil, Russia, and either Italy or Netherlands will host pools (and Italy/Netherlands will be MATCHED up). Korea/Thailand will basically have a playoff match for a bid, and I see DR and Argentina as guaranteed, unless Brazil really f's it up at home (they won't). Italy/Netherlands loser, Turkey and Poland are getting screwed. FIVB is too corrupt to have the continental qualifiers played first... ..And to be clear, Netherlands and Italy are undervalued in the world rankings because they didn't qualify for the 2015 World Cup.... which was because of the continental quotas that only let 2 teams from Europe in. Brazil gets to keep their 2011 World Cup points, so they will remain ahead of Holland despite finishing behind them in both the latest Olympics and World Champs and behind Italy at WCH and equal at Olympics.
|
|
trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 28,106
|
Post by trojansc on Oct 18, 2018 14:08:58 GMT -5
Can anyone estimate the first 12 ranked teams will be after the WCH? Curious to see how this pans out
|
|
|
Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 18, 2018 14:44:36 GMT -5
Can anyone estimate the first 12 ranked teams will be after the WCH? Curious to see how this pans out This is what I'm getting. 2 Assumptions: 1) VNL is scored like WGP; 2) China-Serbia-Italy-Netherlands as finish. If Netherlands wins, they will jump to 4th, 5th if runner up, 6th if 3rd (but jumping Japan doesn't do anything for them for these purposes). If Italy gets bronze as predicted, they'll be tied for Korea - what is the tiebreaker? 4th will drop them below Korea, even winning won't help them past Holland. Some other juicy tiebreakers between Belgium/Kenya, Azerbaijan/Mexico that could really change difficulty of pools. Plus, Peru/Cuba will be tied for last spot - who gets it? Of course, these could change if VNL World Ranking scoring is different from WGP, or FIVB changes the rankings formula entirely (wouldn't put it past them since they didn't update after VNL). 1 China 342 2 Serbia 308 3 USA 270 4 Russia 200 5 Brazil 190 6 Japan 181 7 Netherlands 178 8 Italy 142 8 Korea 142 10 Argentina 101 11 DR 96 12 Turkey 93 13 PR 69 14 Germany 66 15 Thailand 56 16 Bulgaria 55 17 Poland 47 18 Cameroon 45 19 Belgium 40 19 Kenya 40 21 Azerbaijan 33 21 Mexico 33 23 Canada 32 24 Kazakhstan 26 25 Cuba 25 25 Peru 25
|
|
|
Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 18, 2018 14:48:01 GMT -5
So the 6 qualification tournaments would look like this, assuming Italy & Holland lose the semis. Holland could take Russia's pool if they win it all and Brazil's if they beat Serbia. China and USA are almost assured of cakewalks. I really want to see Italy in Brazil (and taking them out), just because it will make the Olympics themselves deeper as it will in effect trade out Argentina for a top European team.
1. China, Puerto Rico, Germany, Cuba/Peru 2. Serbia, Turkey, Thailand, Kazakhstan 3. USA, DR, Bulgaria, Colombia 4. Russia, Argentina, Poland, Canada 5. Brazil, Italy/Korea, Cameroon, Azerbaijan/Mexico 6. Netherlands, Italy/Korea, Belgium, Azerbaijan/Mexico
|
|
|
Post by vballfan17 on Oct 18, 2018 14:49:10 GMT -5
Can anyone estimate the first 12 ranked teams will be after the WCH? Curious to see how this pans out Here would be my guess (but I'm also not up-to-speed on the FIVB bizarre ranking system): 1. China 2. Serbia 3. USA 4. Brazil 5. Italy 6. Netherlands 7. Russia 8. Japan 9. Turkey 10. Dominican Republic 11. Germany 12. Korea HM: Bulgaria, Thailand I'd say 10-12 and HM could be in any combination.
|
|
|
Post by speegs13 on Oct 18, 2018 14:56:04 GMT -5
Can anyone estimate the first 12 ranked teams will be after the WCH? Curious to see how this pans out Will probably have to wait to see how the semis play out for a more accurate estimate at the top, but a rough estimation from my math would be: 1. China 2. Serbia 3. USA 4-7. Russia, Japan, Netherlands, Brazil - this one will largely depends on how the Netherlands finishes 8. Italy 9. South Korea 10. Dominican Republic 11. Argentina 12. Turkey 13. Thailand 14. Germany Note: Brazil's ranking is largely inflated from the 2011 World Cup. Also, I only took into account the 2018 WCH, not the VNL. I'm also not as sure with the points awarded for this tournament. In the 2014 edition, four teams were tied for 7th, awarding each 50 points, but this year their placing teams as 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th. So I don't know how they will distribute the points this year
|
|